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Patriots vs Steelers Predictions | Best Bets & Odds

Lance PattonPromotions Creator & Editor
Posted: Sep 12, 2022Last updated: Sep 16, 2022

The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the New England Patriots in the Steelers’ home opener at the newly renamed Acrisure Stadium.

Pittsburgh went on the road last week and opened their season with an impressive - and uprising - win over the reigning AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers’ defense gave the Bengals fits, forcing five turnovers and sacking Joe Burrow seven times.

The Steelers’ defense started the game with a pick-six and never trailed again, thanks to blocking a PAT with no time on the clock to head to overtime.

The offense did enough to win the game, but it wasn’t pretty. Mitchell Trubisky managed the game without a turnover but did nothing spectacular completing 21 of 38 attempts for 194 yards and a touchdown.

The Steelers run game was concerning as star running back Najee Harris saw just 10 carries for 23 yards, with wide receiver Chase Claypool leading the team with 36 yards. They managed just 75 yards on 22 carries, but there are a fair number of concerns with this offense.

New England lost their season opener 20-7 to the Dolphins and had a ton of offensive problems in that game. Mac Jones had an interception on the first drive of the game, and then later in the first half, was stripped for a touchdown. The offense had three turnovers on the day and managed 271 total yards and just seven points.

The Patriots’ defense was solid in Week 1, they allowed just 65 yards rushing and 242 through the air, but they couldn’t force a turnover and simply couldn’t do enough to overcome the 17-0 first-half lead.

Week 1 is over, and now we look ahead to the best odds, bets, and predictions for New England at Pittsburgh.

Patriots vs Steelers Odds

The Patriots opened in this game as a 1-point favorite, but have moved to 2-point favorites over the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. The total is set at 40.5 points, one of the lowest totals in the league for Week 2.

Take a look at the best Patriots odds and Steelers odds for the 2022 NFL season.

Patriots vs Steelers Implied Score

Patriots 21.25, Steelers 19.25

The Steelers opening as a home dog is surprising after a big win last week over the Bengals - especially since the Patriots lost to the Dolphins in an unimpressive offensive effort. With home-field, I’m surprised the oddsmakers gave the Patriots the nod as the one-point favorite.

The oddsmakers did get the total right by opening at 41, which would make it the second-lowest total of the week in the NFL. Is it a big nod of respect toward the Steelers’ defense, or is it a strong point of contention against these offenses?

Patriots vs Steelers Pick of the Day

Read more on the Patriots vs Steelers pick of the day below.

Patriots vs Steelers Matchup

One of the key storylines from the Steelers in Week 1 was their defense getting seven sacks and four interceptions. T.J. Watt had a sack and 3 tackles for loss, and an interception, but will miss this game — and potentially the season — due to a pec injury.

Watt is a massive loss to this defense, but the Steelers D as a unit remains one of the best in the league. The offense, on the other hand, is a bit of a mess. They ran the ball for just 75 yards on 22 attempts, Trubisky had an up-and-down start, Harris is injured, and it wasn’t a pretty offensive performance overall.

The Patriots’ offense struggled to get anything going in their season opener, turning the ball over three times and managing just 271 total yards.

The Patriots’ run game was non-existent, averaging 3.5 yards per carry on 22 attempts, and the lack of a true No. 1 receiver reared its head with Jakobi Meyers catching four passes for 55 yards to lead the team in receptions and yards.

The Patriots’ defense was solid against the new-look Dolphins but was unable to force a turnover or get off the field on third and fourth down. Overall, it was a solid performance, and if not for a Jones fumble returned for a touchdown, could have been a different result.

Patriots vs Steelers Prediction

Steelers 21, Patriots 17

With Mike Tomlin at the helm, the Steelers have managed a below-average offense with elite-level defenses many times in the last decade. They’ve always managed to surprise people and rattle off wins, and I think they do the same this week.

Even without Watt out there, this defense has plenty of talent. Led by Minkah Fitzpatrick, who had a pick-six in the first quarter and blocked a game-winning PAT, this team will be OK this week even without one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.

The Patriots’ offense was unimpressive by all metrics against a Dolphins defense that pails in comparison to the Steelers. New England’s defense is solid enough, but they were unable to get a stop or force a turnover when they needed it most.

In my mind, the Patriots are going to struggle to move the ball, and the Steelers offense is able to establish the run, control the clock, and get the win at home over the Patriots.

Patriots vs Steelers Bet Tips

Both the Patriots and Steelers had offensive struggles in Week 1 and both the totals went Under. The Steelers covered and won as a 6.5-point underdog, while the Patriots lost by 13 as a three-point underdog.

The Patriots have had a lot of success against the Steelers over their last meetings, winning six of their last seven and covering in four of the last five meetings. Granted, some of those data points are dating back to the Tom Brady era in New England.

Patriots vs Steelers Best Bets

Under 40.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Two bad offenses, a defense that forced five turnovers and had almost 10 sacks, and Bill Belichick scheming against a struggling offense? This game is going to be a rock fight to move the ball past the 50, let alone score points.

Last week, both of these teams’ games had a defensive touchdown, one went to overtime — and the totals STILL went Under. This projects as an even lower-scoring affair, and our best bet is the Steelers-Patriots game to go Under.

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Steelers Moneyline (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Home underdogs in the NFL are generally a profitable endeavor, and last week, went 4-3 ATS. Especially early in the season, I like to trust the defenses and expect offenses to come out slow, and the Steelers fit the mold for both of those metrics.

The Patriots going on the road to face one of the best defenses in the NFL after struggling to move the ball and turning it over three times last week is not a promising combination. I expect the Steelers to grind out another victory behind their star-studded defense with a win on the road here.

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Patriots vs Steelers Props

Pat Freiermuth: Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

A rookie season in 2021 had many believing that Pat Freiermuth would break out this year. And after Game 1, it’s clear he’s going to be involved in this offense, drawing 10 targets for 75 yards. Although Freiermuth isn’t much of a downfield threat, his Over has value based on the volume he sees in the dink-and-dunk offense with Trubisky at the helm.

Patriots vs Steelers Parlays

Steelers Moneyline & Under 40.5 Points (+273) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

This Steelers ML and Under parlay gets you the extra juice on the Steelers to pull off the win. Both of these teams will have their struggles this season - especially on offense - but after a win last week, I like the Steelers to get the job done at home and start the year 2-0 behind another strong defensive performance.

Author

Lance Patton

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