The New England Patriots find themselves in an unfamiliar position heading into Week 6, entering Sunday’s matchup in Las Vegas with just one win under their belt in five tries.
Can the Las Vegas Raiders, who knocked off the Patriots on a memorable last-second defensive touchdown a season ago, beat Bill Belichick and company at home for a second straight year?
Here are our predictions and best bets for New England vs Las Vegas.
Patriots vs Raiders Odds
NFL odds used for this New England vs Las Vegas preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 12 at 4 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Raiders (-142) • Patriots (+120)
- Spread: Raiders -3 (-118) • Patriots +3 (-102)
- Total Points: Over 41 (-108) • Under 41 (-112)
- Implied Score: Raiders 22, Patriots 19
Take a look at the best Patriots odds and Raiders odds for the 2022 NFL season.
Patriots vs Raiders Predictions
Score Pick: Raiders 20, Patriots 17
By every metric in the book, the Patriots have been one of the worst offenses in football. While the Raiders’ defense has been abysmal, I don’t think it’s quite this bad. Las Vegas’ porous secondary should hold up against a weak passing attack, just as it did last week in a 17-13 win over the Packers.
I certainly don’t think the Raiders will pitch a shutout here. This defense is poor enough for New England to score a couple of times, whether through the air or on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson.
However, I think Vegas should be fine, even with a couple of touchdowns. The biggest issue with Jimmy Garoppolo has been turnovers, and the Patriots rank dead last in takeaways per game.
Give me the Raiders in a very cagey, low-scoring affair.
Patriots vs Raiders Best Bets & Props
Raiders -2.5 (-115)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 units
This one has all the makings of a low-scoring game, and while I do like the over here, I’m falling in love with Las Vegas as a short home favorite.
The fact of the matter is that Garoppolo hasn’t been awful. I mean, he’s thrown the most interceptions in the league, but aside from that, he’s been able to manage ballgames for the Raiders. He ranks a surprising sixth in success rate per dropback and is only 15th in EPA per dropback, two numbers that should give you faith in him here against a team ranked dead last in takeaways.
Mac Jones, on the other hand, ranks among the bottom few quarterbacks in both categories and plays for a team ranked 28th in offensive DVOA. The disparity between both offenses, given all things are relatively equal on defense, is a pretty sizable one, and that makes the Raiders our NFL bet of the day.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-114)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 units
Garoppolo has put up just 7.3 yards per attempt and hit the over on this number just once all year, but he’s also never really been asked to do a ton with the football. When he was tasked with throwing 44 times versus Pittsburgh, he racked up 324 yards and likely would have gone for more had he not thrown two picks.
We touched on it above, but the fact that the Pats are dead last in takeaways per game and 29th in interception rate gives me a ton of confidence in Garoppolo here. He should be throwing without much fear, and without turnover issues, he should be able to soar above this number.
The Patriots have been stronger against the run than the pass, and I think, generally speaking, Las Vegas will gain yards with ease.
Josh Jacobs Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 units
If you’re a fan of the Raiders here, you surely have to get behind Josh Jacobs. Should Las Vegas take the lead early, the game script will favor Jacobs, as will the matchup.
The Patriots have allowed 108 rushing yards per game because teams run on them almost 47% of the time. Jacobs rushed 22 times for 93 yards against the Patriots last season and is coming off his most productive game of 2023, which saw him rush 20 times for 69 yards.
We haven’t seen Jacobs in top form yet, but we seem to be getting close. I think he should see plenty of work against a Patriots defense that is around the middle of the league in DVOA against the run; he should have every chance to hit this.
Patriots vs Raiders Same-Game Parlay
Patriots vs Raiders SGP (+355)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
- Raiders ML (-158)
- Jimmy Garoppolo Over 232.5 Pass Yds (-114)
- Under 48.5 (-310)
This helps us combine our work from above into a neat, profitable parlay. We know the Raiders’ passing attack is better than the results indicate and that turnovers have been the predominant reason for the lack of production through the air. Against a defense that has struggled to turn the ball over, Garoppolo should have no issues getting to this number.
I do think this will turn into a grind-fest, so I’ll add an alternate total to this one. Neither of these offenses possesses the explosiveness to put this under in jeopardy, and while I did just disparage the Patriots’ defense, it at least grades out as an average one by most metrics.
On top of that, both teams have running games they love to lean on, so the pace of this one could slow. I like this parlay quite a bit.
