Two of the AFC’s best teams will meet in an appetizing 1:00 pm matchup at M&T Bank Stadium when the 11-4 Miami Dolphins travel to Baltimore to take on the 12-3 Ravens.
We should see speed against speed in Maryland as Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers try to show they can keep up with the electric combination of Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. If the Ravens can get to 13 wins, they’ll all but lock up the first seed in the AFC playoff bracket.
Will Baltimore’s momentum from Christmas carry over another week, or will the Dolphins throw another wrinkle into the ongoing power rankings discussion? We’ll find out in one of the most anticipated matchups of the Week 17 NFL betting slate.
Dolphins vs Ravens Odds
NFL odds used for this Miami vs Baltimore preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Dec. 27 at 1:00 pm ET.
- Moneyline: Ravens (-170) • Dolphins (+142)
- Spread: Ravens -3 (-115) • Dolphins +3 (-105)
- Total Points: Over 47 (-108) • Under 47 (-112)
- Implied Score: Ravens 25, Dolphins 22
Dolphins vs Ravens Predictions
Score Pick: Dolphins 20, Ravens 16
At first glance, I gravitated to the same premise as most other public opinions on this game: Ravens win (because they just beat the 49ers in San Francisco!), and there will be lots of points (because it’s Lamar against Tua!). However, digging a bit deeper, there are a few reasons why the spread and total have already moved towards the Dolphins and the Under.
While the final score looked convincing, the Ravens were thoroughly outgained by the 49ers last week. Five turnovers (some off of friendly bounces) provided them an easy path to victory. Meanwhile, without their star tight end Mark Andrews, so much of the offensive burden fell on the aforementioned Flowers to make plays after the catch.
The Dolphins defense was far more impressive than Baltimore’s last week, limiting Dallas to just 20 completions and 3.9 yards per rush. If they can bracket Flowers and keep Jackson inside the numbers, they’ll be able to force field goals instead of touchdowns.
While Jaylen Waddle sounds like a long shot to play, Hill, Raheem Mostert, and Devon Achane are still electric enough to march down the field on this Baltimore defense. Tagovailoa has more red zone options than Jackson, and I expect the Dolphins defense to outplay the Ravens, who likely won’t be gifted 3+ turnovers again in this one.
Dolphins vs Ravens Best Bets & Props
Under 24 1H (-135)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2.7 units
Both defenses will come out knowing that Flowers and Hill are the keys to the explosiveness of each offense. Slow them down, and you force the other team to play smart for an entire drive, move the sticks, avoid penalties, and execute in the red zone.
With everything at stake in this AFC playoff picture and both teams coming off massive wins last week, I expect this game to begin a bit conservatively and slow-paced while all the coaches and coordinators feel each other out.
I love buying the extra half-point to protect ourselves at 24, so I’m confident in making this the NFL bet of the day in Baltimore.
Dolphins +3 1H (-123)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.23 units
The legs of Lamar Jackson are the wildcard that could ruin both bets mentioned so far, which is why I am wagering a bit less with this one, but I’ve mentioned above that I give Miami a sizable edge in important head-to-head categories.
In the second half, special teams might start to favor the Ravens in a noticeable way, but we can avoid that by taking Miami plus a field goal. That also provides an edge when considering that Mike McDaniel’s first-half offensive script should be far more creative than that of offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
FG Yards Over 119.5 (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.15 units
While there will surely be some explosive plays from two teams that specialize in them, I also expect these defenses to come prepared and strap up opposing receivers when necessary. That should lead to field goals!
The Over 3.5 field goal prop at plus money would also work here, but both kickers have proven their accuracy well over 50 yards, so there appears to be more “outs” to still win here even if the field goals stop at three.
Dolphins vs Ravens Same Game Parlay
Dolphins vs Ravens SGP (+138)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 units
- TDs Under 5.5 (-135)
- Dolphins +8 (-265)
- Under 51.5 (-203)
This parlay highlights the concept that both defenses should play conservatively, allowing them to keep big plays to a minimum and get stops. That should lead to a total in the 30s or 40s rather than the 50s.
We can pair that with the idea that the Dolphins defense keeps this one close and allows Tagovailoa a chance to win the game late, so the safety of Miami plus a touchdown is intriguing to close out the SGP.
