The New England Patriots will hope to make it back-to-back wins when they go on the road to FirstEnergy Stadium to take on the Cleveland Browns in Week 6 this coming Sunday.
The Patriots dismantled the Lions with a 29-0 win last week, snapping a two-game losing streak and improving to 2-3 on the year.
Cleveland lost its second straight game and dropped to 2-3 with a 30-28 loss to the Chargers. A forgettable second half included a turnover on downs, an interception, and a missed 54-yard field goal that would have given the Browns the lead with under a minute to go.
Continue reading for my favorite Cleveland vs New England best bets.
Patriots vs Browns Odds
The Browns opened as three-point home favorites, with the total set at 42.5 points.
If these two teams played on a neutral site, the line would likely be around a pick ’em, so a three-point home-field advantage for the Browns feels about right.
The total of 42.5 is on the lower side, but not surprising in a game where two backup quarterbacks are leading uncertain offensive units.
Patriots vs Browns Implied Totals
Browns 22.75, Patriots 19.75
The oddsmakers expect the Browns to grind out a low-scoring win at home.
Even with the low total at 42.5, it feels on the high side for two teams with backup quarterbacks that prefer to keep the ball on the ground. Especially with Bill Belichick undoubtedly keyed in on stopping the Browns’ rushing attack.
Patriots vs Browns Pick of the Day
Read more on this Patriots vs Browns bet below.
Patriots vs Browns Prediction
Patriots 20, Browns 17
New England is coming off a huge bounce-back win after overwhelming the Lions 29-0 in rookie QB Bailey Zappe‘s first NFL start.
New England is 2-3 on the year, but has shown flashes this season, even with the injury to starting quarterback Mac Jones. Jones is listed as questionable, but with a severe ankle sprain suffered just a couple of weeks ago, it feels unlikely he’ll be 100% by Sunday.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris lead a top-10 rushing attack for the Patriots, combining for 629 yards and four touchdowns this season. Stevenson has come on strong in the last two weeks, including 161 yards in the win over the Lions.
The Patriots’ defense allows 19.6 points per game and is better than the NFL average against the run and pass.
Cleveland has managed to remain upright early in this season, despite the suspension of Deshaun Watson. In large part thanks to the league’s best rushing attack, which has averaged 192.4 yards per game on over five yards per carry.
Nick Chubb has anchored the offense and been the best back in the NFL this season. He leads the league with 593 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. His sidekick, Kareem Hunt, has added 247 yards and two scores on the ground, while also serving as a safety valve in the passing game (14/83/1 as a receiver).
Jacoby Brissett has led the Browns’ offense about as well as you’d expect for a 29-year-old veteran who is on his third team in three seasons. He is completing a career-high 64% of passes and has thrown five touchdowns and three interceptions.
Patriots vs Browns Bet Tips
Here are a couple of other relevant Browns vs Patriots betting trends for Sunday’s game:
- The total has gone Over in four of Cleveland’s last five games.
- The total has gone Over in six of New England’s last nine games.
- New England is 1-5 straight up in their last six games on the road.
- Cleveland is 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games at home.
Patriots vs Browns Best Bets
Patriots +3 (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
Bill Belichick has a history of taking away an opposing teams’ first option and making them adapt. If the Browns’ are unable to run the ball effectively and have to put the ball in the hands of Jacoby Brissett, that bodes well for New England.
Bailey Zappe will likely get his second straight start, which gives him another week of practice to continue to gain experience and improve his timing in the offense.
The Patriots will have plenty of chances to win this game down the stretch, but with a backup quarterback on the road, I feel more confident taking the three points.
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Under 42.5 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
This is a pick based on the likely game scripts for this matchup.
Both teams prefer to keep the ball on the ground, have backup quarterbacks starting, and have good enough defenses to get stops, specifically in the red zone.
I see a methodical, low-scoring, even ugly game where drives are ended with field goals which keep this total Under 42.5 total points.
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