Before the season, few would have expected this game to be a battle between 6-5 teams fighting for an AFC Wild Card spot, but that’s exactly the case as the Denver Broncos visit the Houston Texans.
Both teams are currently on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs, but that’s just due to tiebreakers. They each have the same record as the seventh-seeded Indianapolis Colts.
Will NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate CJ Stroud defend Houston’s home field, or will the veteran savvy of Russell Wilson enable the Broncos to ride to a 7-5 record? Let’s check on the odds and make some Week 13 NFL predictions for this pivotal cross-divisional matchup.
Broncos vs Texans Odds
NFL odds used for this Denver vs Houston preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 28, at 10:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Texans (-192) • Broncos (+160)
- Spread: Texans -3.5 (-108) • Broncos +3.5 (-112)
- Total Points: Over 46.5 (-110) • Under 46.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Texans 25, Broncos 21.5
Broncos vs Texans Predictions
Score Pick: Broncos 24, Texans 18
After the Texans dropped a big divisional game to the Jaguars and the Broncos extended their league-best win streak to five games with a comfortable victory over the Browns, this contest may have a playoff feel. The losers could end up looking back at it as the one that kept them from advancing to the postseason, while the winners will be in great position to do exactly that.
Denver’s defense has improved greatly over the past several weeks after a disastrous start to the year. A huge factor has been increased health, such as that of star safety Justin Simmons. The Boston College alum has contributed a number of big plays, including two picks of Patrick Mahomes and one of Josh Allen.
Houston’s pass defense is still a problem area, and the Broncos are only trending upwards throwing the ball. Wilson has vaulted into the top five in passer rating and is one of just five quarterbacks to have played in 10+ games with a rating over 100.
Denver should pull off the upset in a competitive contest that’s a real treat to watch.
Broncos vs Texans Best Bets & Props
Broncos +3.5 (-112)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Yes, we’re picking Denver to get an outright win, but a half-point above the key number of three provides enough value to make this the NFL bet of the day. Although the Broncos are the better team, the hook could allow us to win as long as they keep things close.
In beating the Browns, the Broncos were able to run for 169 yards against what has been the league’s best run defense by a good margin. Houston’s run D isn’t on the same level, so establishing the ground game will open things up through the air.
Under 46.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Broncos were an over wagon to start the season, as Wilson showed immediate improvement under Sean Payton while the defense endured struggles of historic proportions. But their last six games have finished with a total under 46.5
The Texans have been under this number in consecutive games as well, and the Broncos will look to follow the blueprint of the Cardinals, who forced Stroud into three interceptions. Denver likewise isn’t a great pressuring team, but Simmons and Patrick Surtain can really lock down a receiving group.
Broncos Over 20.5 (-122)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Although this one doesn’t correlate with the game under, it’s really hard to win with a points total in the teens. The Broncos have gone over this number in their past four games while playing the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings, and Browns – a group that includes some of the league’s best defenses.
Over those contests, Wilson has thrown seven touchdowns and no picks. Top wideout Courtland Sutton has exceeded 50 yards in four of the past five games, and he’s also scored in four of them. He could be in for a big day against a Texans secondary that lacks a true shutdown corner.
Broncos vs Texans Same-Game Parlay
Broncos vs Texans SGP (+218)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Broncos Over 16.5 (-278)
- Over 3.5 Field Goals Made (+110)
- Broncos Alternate Spread +7.5 (-219)
We’re building on many of the concepts discussed above but making the plays a bit safer. A team total of 16.5 for the Broncos is just below the significant 17, and it’s a number the Broncos have eclipsed in all but two games – both against divisional rivals. We’ll also move the spread past the key margin of a touchdown and extra point, keeping ourselves in the money in most one-score outcomes. Lastly, with two mediocre red-zone offenses, the kickers should have plenty of opportunities for field goals.
