The flailing Cleveland Browns (3-6) head east to take on the Buffalo Bills (6-3) at Highmark Stadium in a Week 11 clash that sees both teams coming off losses.
The Browns dropped their fifth game in the last six when they were throttled by the Miami Dolphins, 39-17, in South Florida in Week 10. Meanwhile, the Bills suffered a heartbreaking overtime defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings, 33-30.
Without further ado, let’s examine our Cleveland vs Buffalo best bets, predictions and betting tips for this Week 11 battle.
Browns vs Bills Odds
The Bills’ status as 8.5-point home favorites at Caesars Sportsbook as of Tuesday afternoon is in line or perhaps even a bit less than what might be expected, given the Browns’ recent play. However, some lingering concerns about Josh Allen‘s elbow injury could partly be at play.
The projected total of 43 points seems somewhat low at first glance, although it could simply be a reflection of the belief that Cleveland will have an exceedingly difficult time scoring points in a hostile road environment and potentially difficult weather.
Browns vs Bills Implied Totals
Bills 25.75, Browns 17.25
Oddsmakers see another mostly successful day for a Bills offense that still managed to pile up plenty of points in Week 10, despite any potential limitations on Allen’s part, and a mostly frustrating day for the Browns’ average Jacoby Brissett-led passing attack.
Browns vs Bills Pick of the Day
Read more on this Browns vs Bills bet below.
Browns vs Bills Prediction
Bills 30, Browns 17
The Browns are catching the Bills at a bad time, as Buffalo will undoubtedly be an ornery bunch coming off an unbelievable loss snatched from the jaws of victory in Week 10. Cleveland would be poorly equipped overall in the best of circumstances, even as its Nick Chubb-helmed ground game could make some noise against a Bills defense that does give up its share of production on the ground.
Nevertheless, Brissett’s starting tenure has confirmed that while he certainly qualifies as one of the most capable backups in the league and a slightly above-average starter, he has limitations that an aggressive defense like Buffalo’s can exploit.
Brissett is averaging 7.2 yards per attempt and has thrown for just eight touchdowns (along with five interceptions) in nine games. The veteran is putting up a solid but unspectacular 230.4 passing yards per game and generally works in the short-to-medium areas of the field while focusing heavily on Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones.
He’s developed solid rapport with each, but this week, he faces a Bills defense that’s surrendering a modest 9.9 yards per completion and a stingy 60.9 percent completion rate at home. Despite his frequent high-percentage throws, Brissett has been below average in accuracy, completing only 63.8 percent of his attempts.
Cleveland could encounter some success behind its elite run-blocking line against a Buffalo defense that’s yielding 4.4 RB yards per carry, but that will likely only get the Browns so far against a Buffalo offense that can exploit their own deficiencies against the run to set up the pass.
The Browns are now surrendering 152.8 rushing yards per road game after getting gashed by the Dolphins’ Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert on Sunday, and giving up 5.2 RB yards per carry overall.
Devin Singletary is averaging just over 10 carries per game on the season, but he could certainly be deployed more than usual and is already trending up in usage with an average of 13 carries the last four contests.
If Buffalo gets the run game established as a viable threat, it should set up Allen for some success with his formidable arsenal of weapons in the air attack. Cleveland did get Denzel Ward back from his concussion last week and he did a good job overall on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
The Browns have excellent metrics against the pass on the road, but this could be just as stiff a test as last week, and Tua Tagovailoa did finish with 285 passing yards and three TDs by game’s end in Week 10.
Browns vs Bills Bet Tips
Here are a few Browns vs Bills betting trends to consider before making your bets:
- The Browns are 4-5 against the spread, including 2-2 as a road team and 3-4 in conference games.
- The Bills are 4-4-1 ATS, including 2-2 as a home team and 3-2-1 in conference games.
- The Browns are 7-12 ATS after a defeat during Kevin Stefanski‘s tenure (2020-present), while the Bills are 17-14-3 ATS following a loss since Sean McDermott‘s arrival in 2017.
Browns vs Bills Best Bets
Bills -8.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As explained, the Bills should be able to progressively control this game, especially given the Browns’ aforementioned vulnerability against the run. Buffalo’s excellent chances of running a balanced attack, homefield edge and ability to pressure Brissett should be enough for a sizable win.
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Bills Moneyline & Over 43.5 Points (+139) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
With Buffalo a heavy favorite and having the ability to put up a 30-point total in any given week, I like the idea of combining both the moneyline and Over into one bet at a great price that blows away the massive juice you’d absorb on a straight Buffalo moneyline bet.
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Browns vs Bills Props
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