The resilient but winless Houston Texans make the trip to Solider Field for a Week 3 interconference matchup against the Chicago Bears. Houston surprisingly fought the Colts to a Week 1 tie before giving the Russell Wilson-led Broncos all they could handle in Week 2 until falling by a 16-9 score.
The Bears managed a 19-10 win over the 49ers in Week 1, but the inclement weather and the fact San Francisco was playing without George Kittle (groin) in that game while also losing Elijah Mitchell to a knee injury after a fast start certainly skews the upset victory to an extent. Chicago’s Justin Fields then looked highly inept in Week 2 at Lambeau Field, throwing for only 70 yards in a 27-10 loss.
With Houston having built some confidence with its play in the first two games of the Lovie Smith era and Chicago trying to bounce back from a worrisome loss, let’s jump into our Houston vs Chicago best bets, betting tips, and predictions.
Texans vs Bears Odds
The Texans’ +122 moneyline odds and +2.5-point line makes the Texans at least worthy of a look as a cover candidate to consider this week. Houston has played very competitively in its first two games, and the defense looks improved under Smith, who’d already implemented his scheme last season as the defensive coordinator under David Culley.
The 40.5-point projected total is to be expected when considering Houston and Chicago have scored just 29 points each in their first two games.
Texans vs Bears Implied Totals
Bears 21.5, Texans 19
Oddsmakers clearly don’t see either team having enough offensively to pull away from the other in this matchup, and each team’s Week 2 offensive performances particularly support that notion. Neither team lacks defensive talent, either, further fueling the confidence in this type of score.
Texans vs Bears Pick of the Day
Read more on this Texans vs Bears bet below.
Texans vs Bears Prediction
Bears 19, Texans 14
There’s no getting around the fact this game could well turn out to be quite the throwback-type of contest — not in an appealing way, but rather, in a set-offense-back-60-years manner.
The weather, which had an outsized influence in the Bears’ Week 1 upset of the 49ers, isn’t projected to be as ugly as in that game, but the advanced forecast as of Tuesday does call for a 40% chance of rain and winds up to 20 mph, which begins to open up the possibility of some influence on the footing and passing game.
Both Davis Mills and Fields undeniably have talent that is sometimes overridden by their inexperience, and that should ultimately lead to a lower-scoring affair with some truncated drives due to ineffectiveness and turnovers.
Therefore, a low-scoring affair decided by a field goal in which the home team squeaks by in Smith’s return to the Windy City isn’t an improbable outcome by any stretch.
Texans vs Bears Bet Tips
Let’s quickly examine some Texans vs Bears betting trends to consider ahead of Sunday’s interconference matchup:
- The Bears were 3-2 ATS against AFC opponents in 2021, while the Texans were 1-4 against the number versus NFC foes.
- The Bears were 3-0 ATS as home favorites last season, while the Texans were 3-5 ATS as road underdogs.
- The Under was 6-2 in the Bears’ home games last season and is 2-0 in both Chicago’s and Houston’s first two contests overall in 2022. The Under was also 6-2 in the Texans’ road games last season.
- The two teams appear to be pretty closely matched in talent, but the 2.5 number is one that just slightly favors Chicago’s chances of a home cover if it remains there and doesn’t cross the three-point threshold.
Texans vs Bears Best Bets
Bears -2.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As outlined, the Bears aren’t likely to truly pull away from anyone this season, but a home game against a still-developing quarterback gives them a fighting chance at a victory of at least a field goal. Moreover, Chicago’s impressive backfield duo of David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert could really tilt things the Bears’ way in this spot, considering Houston is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game through two games (163.5).
Additionally, there’s no question that Head Coach Matt Eberflus finds the notion of Darnell Mooney having two receptions for four yards through two games unacceptable. Look for the Bears to try and get him involved early and often against a Texans secondary that has given up a combined 16 receptions for 243 yards to Michael Pittman and Courtland Sutton the first two weeks.
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Under 40.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
WAGER: 1 Unit
Both of these squads should be able to find success on the ground to a significant degree. In addition to the Texans’ aforementioned struggles versus the run, it’s worth noting the Bears have been even worse by allowing an NFL-high 189.5 rushing yards per game through the first pair of contests, and that Texans rookie Dameon Pierce broke out to an extent against the Broncos in Week 2 with 15 rushes for 69 yards.
Therefore, there could be some long, run-centric drives in this game in an effort to limit the exposure of both quarterbacks and plenty of time chewed off the clock as a result. Factoring in potential turnovers and the somewhat shallow pass-catching corps of each team beyond their No. 1 receivers, I believe the result is a low-scoring game in which the Under prevails fairly comfortably.
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David Montgomery: Anytime Touchdown (+107) at Caesars
WAGER: 1 Unit
Given the vulnerabilities of the Texans’ rush defense already outlined and the fact Houston gave up 21 total TDs (18 rushing, three receiving) to running backs a season ago, this is a prop worth considering.
Montgomery has yet to score through two games, but he enjoys a formidable red-zone presence (109 total touches inside 20, including 27 rushes inside the 5-yard-line, over the last two seasons alone) and the Texans allowed a co-NFL-high 22 rushing red-zone TDs a season ago.