The United States Men’s National Team will conclude World Cup group play on Thursday, June 25, when it takes on Turkiye in Los Angeles at 10 p.m. ET on FOX.
This USA vs Turkiye match, which many prognosticators thought would be pivotal for both teams when the draw was made, now carries little meaning.
The Americans have already secured the top spot in Group D and their place in the knockout rounds, while Turkiye was eliminated following losses to Australia and Paraguay.
Ahead of Thursday’s final group stage contest, I’ll dig into the latest odds and make my USA vs Turkiye predictions.
USA vs Turkiye Odds
All soccer odds used for these USA vs Turkiye predictions are current as of Thursday, June 25, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: USA (-115) / Draw (+300) / Turkiye (+280)
- Spread: USA -0.5 (-120) / Turkiye +0.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 Goals (-165) / Under 2.5 Goals (+130)
USA vs Turkiye Predictions
Score Prediction: USA 1, Turkiye 1
It’s difficult to predict what we will see from these two teams, given the circumstances surrounding this match.
With a spot in the knockout rounds secured, USA coach Mauricio Pochettino is expected to make several changes to his starting lineup. Among the players expected to sit are Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, Folarin Balogun, and Chris Richards, who were shown a yellow card during the first two matches and would be at risk of suspension for the Round of 32 if they picked up another on Thursday night.
The changes may not stop there, as Pochettino looks to protect other key starters and give squad players some minutes ahead of the team’s first knockout game, which will likely see the USMNT face Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday, July 1.
One regular starter who may play on Thursday night is Christian Pulisic, who came off at halftime of the opening 4-1 win over Paraguay and did not feature against Australia due to a calf injury. Getting him back up to speed ahead of the knockout rounds is a must for this U.S. squad.
Turkiye is also a difficult team to project right now. Vincenzo Montella’s squad has come under intense scrutiny after failing to qualify for the knockout stage and failing to score a single goal in its opening two matches despite attempting 62 shots.
Given this will be Turkiye’s final game at the tournament, Montella may be less likely to rotate his starting lineup, as his team looks to go out on a high note. While Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, and Co. haven’t been clinical in front of goal thus far, they could have an opportunity to exploit a weaker U.S. lineup.
USA vs Turkiye Best Bets
Turkiye +0.5 (-105) vs USA
This week, Pochettino has preached the importance of keeping the pedal to the metal and building off the momentum the U.S. has built by winning its first two games.
However, that task will be easier said than done if he rotates his starting lineup significantly against a talented Turkiye team.
- Check out the latest 2026 World Cup Winner odds.
Turkiye defeated the USA 2-1 in a friendly just over a year ago, and I think they’ll have a point to prove against the tournament co-hosts.
While I don’t expect the USMNT to roll over in a World Cup match on home soil, we’re getting a pretty fair price on the spread for Turkiye to win or draw against a rotated side.
USA vs Turkiye: Under 2.5 Goals (+130)
Overs have generally been a good bet in USA games, with seven of the team’s previous nine games featuring at least three total goals.
However, I’m going to take these appealing plus-money odds on the under.
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Turkiye has been far from clinical in front of goal, and the USA is likely to make several changes that could disrupt the free-flowing attacking football we’ve seen from it thus far.
Plus, neither of these teams needs a specific result, so the pace of this game could be slightly more subdued. I’ll back the under as my soccer bet of the day.
