After 27 consecutive days of action, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is down to eight teams.
Six of the remaining eight teams hail from Europe, with defending champion Argentina (South America) and 2022 semifinalist Morocco (Africa) the lone holdouts from other continents.
Before the World Cup quarterfinals kick off on Thursday afternoon, let’s assess the latest World Cup odds and update our 2026 tournament winner predictions.
2026 World Cup Winner Odds
Soccer odds used for these 2026 World Cup winner predictions are current as of Tuesday, July 7, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- France (+180)
- Spain (+370)
- Argentina (+400)
- England (+470)
- Norway (+1500)
- Morocco (+2800)
- Switzerland (+3000)
- Belgium (+3000)
Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup?
France (+180)
I backed Les Bleus at +475 odds to win the World Cup at the start of the tournament, and I see no reason to change my pick.
France is now the tournament favorite after winning all five of its matches, with star striker Kylian Mbappe leading the way with seven goals.
The Real Madrid star scored the game-winner from the penalty spot in a 1-0 Round-of-16 victory over Paraguay after netting twice in a 3-0 win over Sweden in the Round of 32. Mbappe leads a star-studded attack that has scored the joint-most goals in the tournament (14) alongside Argentina.
Didier Deschamps’ squad has reached the final at the previous two World Cups, defeating Croatia in 2018 and falling to Argentina in a penalty shootout four years ago.
I like France’s chances to avenge that defeat, despite a potentially difficult path to the final, which includes a quarterfinal against Morocco and a potential semifinal date with Spain.
2026 World Cup Contenders
Spain (+370)
Spain’s scoreless draw with Cape Verde to open the group stage was a surprise, but La Roja have responded with four consecutive wins to set up a quarterfinal matchup against Belgium on Friday.
Luis de la Fuente’s squad heads into that contest as the only team yet to concede a goal in the tournament. Spain has set a World Cup record with six consecutive clean sheets, posting five in this tournament and drawing 0-0 with Morocco in the 2022 Round of 16 before losing in a penalty shootout.
This Spanish side is battle-tested and deep, as Mikel Merino proved by coming off the bench to score the game-winning goal against Portugal in the Round of 16, and it could challenge for a second World Cup title in its history.
Argentina (+400)
The defending champions have dodged a pair of bullets in the knockout rounds, outlasting Cape Verde 3-2 in extra time in the Round of 32 before overcoming a late two-goal deficit to stun Egypt by the same scoreline in the Round of 16.
Argentina will have to play better if it wants to become the first nation to win back-to-back World Cups since Brazil (1958 and 1962).
That said, Lionel Messi continues to work wonders at age 39. He leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals and always seems to pop up when La Albiceleste need him the most.
Plus, South American teams have won the previous three World Cups in North America, and Argentina is the last one standing. It also continues to get a favorable draw, with a quarterfinal date against Switzerland next up for Messi and Co.
England (+470)
England hasn’t been the most dominant side at this World Cup, but the Three Lions displayed a dogged determination to reach the quarterfinals.
Thomas Tuchel’s side survived a Round-of-16 showdown at the Azteca against Mexico, emerging with a 3-2 victory despite playing more than half an hour with 10 men after Jarell Quansah was sent off for a high challenge.
Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane leads the way with six goals in the tournament, two of which saw England overcome a late one-goal deficit against DR Congo in the Round of 32.
England is favored in its quarterfinal matchup against Norway, which won’t be easy, but a win would set it up to face either Argentina or Switzerland for a chance to reach the country’s first World Cup final since 1966.
2026 World Cup Sleeper Pick
Norway (+1400)
Norway has lived up to its expectation as a tournament dark horse, defeating Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16 to advance to the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time in its history.
Unsurprisingly, that run has been fueled by the goalscoring exploits of Manchester City striker Erling Haaland, who netted both goals against Brazil to bring his total up to seven for the tournament.
For reference, Norway had scored seven World Cup goals in its entire history before this tournament, and Haaland has matched that mark in just four appearances.
Haaland and Co. will try to keep this magical run going against a familiar group of Premier League stars when Norway faces England on Saturday in Miami.
