The USA will kick off its 2026 World Cup campaign on home soil when it takes on Paraguay in Los Angeles on Friday, June 12 at 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
Christian Pulisic and Co. will look to build on a pair of solid pre-tournament performances, which saw the U.S. beat Senegal 3-2 and fall 2-1 to four-time World Cup winner Germany.
Ahead of this opening match in Group D play, I’ll dig into the latest odds and make my USA vs Paraguay predictions.
USA vs Paraguay Odds
All soccer odds used for these USA vs Paraguay predictions are current as of Friday, June 12, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: USA (+110) / Draw (+220) / Paraguay (+290)
- Spread: USA -0.5 (+100) / Paraguay +0.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 Goals (+145) / Under 2.5 Goals (-180)
USA vs Paraguay Predictions
Score Prediction: USA 2, Paraguay 1
I’m expecting the USA to get off to a winning start on home soil.
Mauricio Pochettino’s squad showed some promising signs in its pre-tournament friendlies, especially in attack, as it attempted more shots than both Germany and Senegal, two teams with plenty of firepower.
Most importantly, Christian Pulisic appears to be in better form than he displayed during a disappointing second half of his club campaign with AC Milan, which will be key for the USA’s chances going forward.
This U.S. team needs to score goals, as it doesn’t necessarily have the standout goalkeeper that many American fans have grown accustomed to over the years.
While Paraguay can cause some problems through Miguel Almiron and Julio Enciso, the U.S. should see more of the ball and be the more aggressive team in this matchup, which I think ultimately leads to a narrow victory.
USA vs Paraguay Best Bets
USA ML (+110) vs Paraguay
Host nations have historically had success in their opening fixture, posting a 17-6-1 record across 24 matches. The only host nation to lose its opening fixture was Qatar, which fell 2-0 to Ecuador in 2022.
Co-host Mexico added to that record with a 2-0 victory over South Africa on Thursday, while Canada will start its tournament against Bosnia and Herzegovina on Friday at 3 p.m. ET.
- Get ready for a summer of soccer with our 2026 World Cup Winner odds.
The U.S. defeated Paraguay 2-1 in a November friendly last year, with Giovanni Reyna and Folarin Balogun getting the goals.
I’m predicting a repeat of that scoreline on Friday, so I’m backing the USMNT at plus-money odds as my soccer bet of the day.
USA vs Paraguay: Over 2.5 Goals (+145)
Since eight third-place teams will advance to the knockout rounds, there’s a perception that teams will try to play it safe, especially in their opening group game.
While Paraguay could be comfortable adopting a slightly more defensive approach, I don’t expect the U.S. to go in with that mindset on home soil.
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The Americans also aren’t built to play that way under Pochettino, as they’ve conceded at least one goal in each of their previous eight matches dating back to a 2-0 victory over Japan in September. They’ve also scored at least once in seven of those eight games, with the exception being a 2-0 loss to Portugal in March.
I think there’s value in the over at this price, and betting on both teams to score (+105) is probably worth a look as well.
