If you’ve made it to Week 15 in your Survivor Pool, congratulations are in order. It’s not time to celebrate just yet, however. With an extra game on the schedule this year, there are still four more weeks to go (including this one).
Last week, our best survivor pick was the Green Bay Packers. While the first half was weird, Green Bay got the job done against the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.
If you’re still alive in our survivor pool, here are a couple of matchups to consider.
All NFL Week 15 odds and lines are current as of 2 PM ET on Wednesday, December 15.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid Week 15
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck of “The Prediction Tracker," uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox, and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 15
San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons
Believe it or not, I’ve yet to recommend the San Francisco 49ers this season. While they’ve played a tough schedule thus far, I like their matchup this week.
- Read our full Falcons vs 49ers predictions and best bets
The Falcons are somehow 6-7 despite ranking in the bottom seven in both points scored and points against. They’ve played much worse than their record suggests, as their expected record is 4-9.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have hit their stride after a bumpy start, winning five of their last seven. They’re still in the playoff hunt at 7-6 and should come with a big performance at home after taking down the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime last week.
With Atlanta getting outscored by an average of 8.4 points per game, their win probability is just 23.9% on the Prediction Tracker. Take the surging 49ers at home against the middling Falcons.
Betting Pick: 49ers -9 (-110) at Caesars
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Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers
I know some people have probably already used the Buffalo Bills, but if you haven’t yet this is a great spot for them at home against the reeling Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers have lost eight of their last 10 games, fired their offensive coordinator, and can’t seem to figure out who they want at quarterback. Their offense has been a disaster lately, topping 21 points just once in their past seven games.
- Read our full Panthers vs Bills Predictions & Bet Picks
While Cam Newton will likely get the start on Sunday, Carolina is 0-3 in his starts this season and now faces one of the NFL’s best defenses on the road. Look for Buffalo to bounce back in a major way against the scuffling Panthers at home for our NFL bet of the day.
Betting Pick: Bills -10.5 (-110) at Caesars
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
If you’re really looking to stand out this week, the Houston Texans are a slight road underdog against the Jacksonville Jaguars on our NFL gameday odds.
The Jaguars are a mess these days. In addition to losing five in a row, they finally (and mercifully) pulled the plug on Urban Meyer.
- Read our full Texans vs Jaguars predictions and best bets
The Jaguars have scored a grand total of seven points over their last two games combined and haven’t tallied more than 17 points in a game since Week 6. Their offense is so broken right now that not even Trevor Lawrence can fix it.
While the Texans are equally bad, at least they’re not in complete disarray like Jacksonville.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save
Now that we’re in the home stretch, your focus has to be on this week. Don’t worry about saving picks for future weeks at this point of the season.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
I truly think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win on Sunday Night Football, especially since the Prediction Tracker has them winning 74.2% of the time. However, it’s worth noting that New Orleans has beaten Tampa Bay in four of their last five meetings, including earlier this year.
- Read our full Saints vs Buccaneers predictions and best bets
While the Saints have been decimated by injuries since then, they still have a solid defense and a strong running game behind Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill. If the Saints can force a turnover or two and keep the ball out of Tom Brady‘s hands, they’ll have a shot at a divisional upset.
I like the Bucs to win, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Thanks for reading our Week 15 Survivor Pool Picks! For more NFL betting tips, read our NFL Week 15 Best Bets and NFL Week 15 Prop Bets.
