Texans vs Jaguars Predictions Week 15 | NFL Pick of the Day

Does anyone care about this weekend’s game between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars? Will anyone watch?

The answer to those questions is likely a resounding no for most people, but there’s some value to be had in this matchup, so there’s good reason for us to care.

The Texans (2-11) and the Jaguars (2-11) are playing for NFL Draft positioning at this point, so both teams have every incentive to lose this one. But NFL players don’t care about future draft picks, so there’s also a lot of pride on the line this week – especially after Urban Meyer‘s recent firing.

Let’s take a look at how each team’s recent play will affect this matchup in our NFL pick of the day series.

Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 11:00 a.m. on Friday, December 17.

Jaguars vs Texans Prediction

While the front offices in Houston and Jacksonville are likely hoping for a loss this weekend, each coach is very much on the hot seat and every player not named Trevor Lawrence is playing for his job, so there’s plenty on the line.

The Texans come into this game having lost three straight and 11 of their last 12. They’ve finally decided to move on from Tyrod Taylor at quarterback and will be using the rest of the season to evaluate what they have with Davis Mills.


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The Jaguars enter this matchup on a five-game losing streak and are on the heels of Urban Meyer‘s dismissal so there’s been quite a bit of turmoil in their building as of late. Lawrence has seemingly regressed as the season has progressed, and Meyer did a great job of alienating the team’s best player from last year, running back James Robinson, so it’s not like interim head coach Darrell Bevell can do much worse.

While both defenses can be scored upon, we’re not exactly looking at high-powered offenses for either squad in this AFC South bottom-dweller matchup.

It’s always tough to predict tank-a-thons like this one as both teams limp to the finish line, but the Texans have been playing marginally better of late and haven’t had to deal with the firing of a coach in the last few days.

Prediction: Texans 23, Jaguars 21

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence will look to bounce back after throwing four interceptions in Week 14. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Jaguars vs Texans Best Bets

Best Bet: Texans +4.5 (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

As I mentioned above, it’s almost impossible to get a good read on these types of matchups at the end of the season. It’s extremely hard to predict what will happen when two below-average teams with nothing to play face each other. It also doesn’t help that the Jaguars are playing with an interim coaching staff that we haven’t seen and don’t have a read on yet.

That said, the Texans won the first time these two teams played in Week 1, so we’ll have to at least acknowledge that (even if it was a lifetime ago in football time). More importantly to this week, however, the Texans have been playing marginally better football than the Jaguars, and Houston has at least won a game in the past month.

This game is essentially a toss-up, in my humble opinion, and I think it’s going to be close no matter who wins. So I’m going to do the prudent thing and knock my confidence down to a half unit here.

spread

-110

Texans to Cover +4.5 Spread @ Jaguars

HOU @ JAC | 12/19, 1:00 PM ET

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Best Bet: Texans Moneyline (+180) at Caesars

Wager: 0.5 Units

Do you have any confidence in either team winning this one? Me neither. I especially don’t have enough confidence to take the Jaguars at -175. So with that, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Jaguars are dealing with too much nonsense internally to overcome the Texans this weekend.

I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if either team wins (after all, the Texans have beaten the Titans and the Jaguars have beaten the Bills), but the Texans moneyline is presenting too much value to pass up.

moneyline

+180

Texans to Defeat Jaguars

HOU @ JAC | 12/19, 1:00 PM ET

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Bet $20, Payout $56

Best Bet: Over 39.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

We are looking at the two worst offenses in the league in this one. The Texans average a league-low 13.6 points per game, while the Jaguars aren’t far behind with an average of 13.8.

That said, we’re also looking at two bottom-10 defenses with the Texans allowing an average of 27.4 points per game and the Jaguars allowing an average of 26.2 points per game. Stoppable forces meet movable objects, right?

Both defenses might be the elixir these struggling offenses need, so while I don’t think we’ll see an absolute shootout, I think we’ll see enough points to overcome this relatively low total this weekend. Back the Over here as your NFL pick of the day.

over-under

-110

HOU @ JAC: Over 39.5 Total Points

HOU @ JAC | 12/19, 1:00 PM ET

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Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Team vs Team Betting Record: 17-7, +12.0 Units

Thank you for reading our Texans vs Jaguars Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 15 Best Bets and NFL Week 15 Parlays.

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page