If you’re still alive in your NFL Survivor pool, props to you. Week after week, incredible upsets continue to take place across the NFL, wiping away numerous pool players as the season progresses.
I’ve been out of my pool since Week 8 but am here to provide analysis on the best selections each week for those who are still competing for the grand prize in their pools.
So let’s get right to it. Here are my survivor picks for NFL Week 13.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid Week 13
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck of “The Prediction Tracker," uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox, and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news. All NFL Week 13 odds and lines are current as of Wednesday, December 1, at 9:00 a.m. ET.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
Believe it or not, I haven’t used the Kansas City Chiefs all season. The Chiefs were difficult to trust for a while after their slow start, but they’ve come on strong by winning their last four games in a row prior to last week’s bye.
Surprisingly, Kansas City’s defense has led the charge, yielding just 47 total points during the win streak. A stingy defense paired with a dangerous offense makes the Chiefs incredibly difficult to beat.
- Read our full Broncos vs Chiefs predictions and best bets.
The Denver Broncos are also on a hot streak, winning three of their last four. With their offense averaging just 20.7 points per game, however, it’s hard to envision them keeping pace with Kansas City on the road during Sunday Night Football.
The Prediction Tracker has the Chiefs’ win probability at 67.52 percent, which is a really good number for our NFL bet of the day — especially in Week 13 when most teams have already been selected.
Betting Pick: Chiefs -10 (-105) at Caesars
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Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets
The Philadelphia Eagles just couldn’t get it going offensively against the New York Giants last week, losing 13-7 in ugly fashion. They’ll look to get back on track against a pitiful New York Jets defense that’s surrendering the most points and second-most yards per game this year.
Last week’s loss aside, the Eagles have been playing better lately with three wins in their last five games. They’ve found their identity as a run-first team under Jalen Hurts, fashioning themselves in a similar mold to the Baltimore Ravens.
- Read our full Eagles vs Jets predictions and best bets.
With the 5-7 Eagles still in the hunt for a playoff spot, they should come out with a better effort this week. The 3-8 Jets, on the other hand, are coming off a victory over the lowly Houston Texans but have yet to win consecutive games this year.
Philly remains 6.5-point road favorites on our NFL gameday odds and the Prediction Tracker has them winning 71.09 percent of the time. New York won’t be winning two straight games — no chance!
Betting Pick: Eagles -6.5 (-110) at Caesars
Look for Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles to bounce back against the New York Jets in NFL Week 13. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
While the Detroit Lions are 0-10-1, four of their losses have come by three points or less. They keep coming up short in close games, but this could be the week where they finally get over the hump.
Not only are the Lions at home, but they also have extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving. After playing three straight games decided by three points or less, they know they can be competitive and should be extra motivated to get a win against a division rival in front of their home crowd.
What’s more, Detroit lost by just two points to the Minnesota Vikings when they first faced off back in Week 5. Dan Campbell has the Lions playing better and more consistently now, whereas the Vikings will be shorthanded without Dalvin Cook.
- Read our full Vikings vs Lions predictions and best bets.
Minnesota’s defense has also struggled this season, allowing more yards than the offense has managed and yielding 30+ points in three of their last four games. It hasn’t been easy for Jared Goff this year, but he’s coming off arguably his best game of the season and could be poised for another strong performance.
All things considered, the Lions are live dogs and have a real chance to upset the Vikes at home. I wouldn’t bet against them this week.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
It’s been a rough year for the Seattle Seahawks, but I’m still scared of betting against them. The San Francisco 49ers are clearly the better team, but it’s hard to bet on the road team in a rivalry game, especially when it’s being played in Seattle.
- Read our full 49ers vs Seahawks predictions and best bets.
While Russell Wilson hasn’t been the same since coming back from the IR, it’s only a matter of time before he finds his rhythm again. It might not happen against the Niners, who have allowed just 334.1 yards per game, but it could.
I’m not taking any chances betting against Wilson this late into a Survivor Pool.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Both of these teams have scuffled lately, with the Dallas Cowboys losing three of their last four and the New Orleans Saints dropping four in a row. While New Orleans has been undone by injuries, Dallas simply hasn’t been playing good football.
The Saints will try to end their skid by shaking things up at quarterback, where Taysom Hill may get the nod over Trevor Siemian. Hill performed admirably with Drew Brees out last year, going 2-2 in his four starts. He’ll also benefit from the impending return of Alvin Kamara.
- Read our full Cowboys vs Saints predictions and best bets.
Even if Hill doesn’t start, Siemian will have a short leash moving forward after losing all four of his starts this year. A change under center could light a spark under this flagging Saints offense, especially at home during Thursday Night Football.
Thanks for reading our Week 13 Survivor Pool Picks! For more NFL betting tips, read our NFL Week 13 Best Bets.
