Week by week, crazy upsets continue to shock the NFL world. Last week, the lowly Houston Texans earned their first win since Week 1 with a stunning victory over the Tennessee Titans, aka the team with the best record in the AFC.
These types of games prove why it’s so difficult to win Survivor Leagues, even when it sounds so simple. You can take the heaviest favorite, but sometimes that team just doesn’t show up.
You can’t always make sense of the NFL, but we’re going to try extremely hard every week. Let’s find a team that won’t get upset this week for players who are still alive.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid Week 12
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck of “The Prediction Tracker," uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox, and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news. All NFL Week 12 odds and lines are current as of Wednesday, November 24, at 9:00 a.m. ET.
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2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 12
Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions
If you’re looking to really stand out this week, taking the Chicago Bears to win on Thanksgiving seems like the way to go. There are no heavy favorites this week according to our NFL gameday odds, so we really need to do some digging.
There’s a good chance that those who are still surviving haven’t used the Bears this season, as they are just 3-7 and have lost five in a row. Chicago should be able to snap that streak against the winless Lions, however.
While the Bears’ offense has struggled all season, it could see a boost with Andy Dalton under center as opposed to Justin Fields. Fields is still figuring out the NFL, after all, while Dalton has a decade’s worth of starts under his belt.
Matt Nagy is also coaching for his job, as there’s a good chance he’ll be fired if Chicago loses again.
Even if Jared Goff (ribs) is able to suit up for Detroit, the Bears’ defense should be able to hold up against a Lions offense averaging just 16 points per game. Meanwhile, look for Chicago’s offense to break out against a unit allowing the third-most points per game in the NFL.
Betting Pick: Bears -3 (-110) at Caesars
Houston Texans vs New York Jets
Let’s stay bold here. There could be plenty of upsets this week for some of the better squads in the league, so why not go after two of the worst?
Zach Wilson will return under center for the New York Jets but figures to be rusty in his first game since Week 7. With Michael Carter (ankle) out, he doesn’t have many weapons to work with, either.
- Read our full Jets vs Texans predictions and best bets.
The Jets have also lost three in a row and are 0-5 on the road this year, which doesn’t bode well for their trip to Houston.
Meanwhile, the Texans return home after knocking off the Titans on the road. They’re now 2-2 in Tyrod Taylor‘s starts this year and are a much more competent football team when he’s on the field. Expect Taylor to do some damage against a Jets defense allowing 32 points per game — most in the NFL.
Houston’s defense also seems rejuvenated, allowing just 30 points over its last two games combined and picking off Ryan Tannehill four times last week.
I love the Texans in this spot for our NFL bet of the day, especially since the Prediction Tracker has them winning over 61 percent of the time.
Betting Pick: Texans -2.5 (-110) at Caesars
Can Tyrod Taylor lead the Houston Texans to victory over the New York Jets in NFL Week 12? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons
The Prediction Tracker has the Jacksonville Jaguars winning this game 54 percent of the time in a pick-em.
The Atlanta Falcons always seem like the hardest team to monitor and figure out. One week they’re hot and the next week they’re hot garbage.
They’ve been absolutely terrible during their last two games, getting outscored 68-3 and struggling mightily on both sides of the ball.
- Read our full Falcons vs Jaguars predictions and best bets.
I’d stay away from them here, especially against a Jaguars team that at least has some hope with Trevor Lawrence under center. Jacksonville’s defense has also turned things around lately, averaging 19.7 points allowed over its last three games.
With the Falcons looking lost right now, take the Jags at home.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
We still haven’t used the Los Angeles Chargers yet, but I’d like to hold off for a couple more weeks. They blew a massive fourth-quarter lead to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home during Sunday Night Football before coming back to win, narrowly avoiding their fourth loss in five games.
- Read our full Chargers vs Broncos predictions and best bets.
We know the Chargers can score, but their defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone lately, allowing 31.8 points per game over their last six. Accordingly, I’m going to wait for them to get on a roll before recommending them.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
The Titans have the best record in the AFC this year despite losing to the Texans and Jets. In other words, they play to the level of their competition.
Therefore, we should expect Tennessee to bounce back against the red-hot New England Patriots, who are strongly favored at home. New England is getting too many points against a team that has already beaten the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Rams.
- Read our full Titans vs Patriots predictions and best bets.
Stay away from taking the Pats here, as they’ve had trouble beating good teams this year and are just 2-4 at home.
Thanks for reading our Week 12 Survivor Pool Picks! For more NFL betting tips, read our NFL Week 12 Best Bets.
