The Tennessee Titans (8-3) laid an egg last week with an unexpected loss to their lowly divisional rival, the Houston Texans (2-8). They’ll try to bounce back on the road against one of the hottest teams in the NFL, the New England Patriots (7-4).
The Patriots have won five straight games and six of their last seven, with their only loss during that span coming in overtime to the Dallas Cowboys. Their defense is playing especially well, having allowed just 13 points over their last three games combined.
These are two playoff-bound teams headed in different directions. Tennessee has struggled on offense without Derrick Henry, while New England is firing on all cylinders.
Let’s dive into our Titans vs Patriots predictions to see which team has the edge in this pivotal AFC matchup.
Please note that all NFL Week 12 odds and lines are current as of 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 23.
Titans vs Patriots Prediction
The Titans are a scrappy team that has pulled off several unexpected wins against tough opponents including the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Rams. Before their stunning loss to the Texans, they were on a six-game winning streak.
The last time Tennessee suffered a disappointing home loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1, they followed it up with an overtime road win in Seattle. Expect a much better effort from Mike Vrabel‘s team in this game, especially with their No. 1 seed on the line.
The Patriots have also found their identity as a scrappy defensive team that is strong in the trenches with a good running game and efficient quarterback. Mac Jones is completing 70.2 percent of his passes, which is the highest mark for a rookie quarterback ever.
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Recent performance would suggest that New England is the correct side here, but I’m looking at Tennessee in this spot. I trust in Vrabel to have them ready against his former team on the road, as he did the last time they faced off during the 2019 Wild Card Game.
The Titans’ defense has also been surprisingly solid lately, allowing 22 points or less in four of their last five games. They recently gave Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford fits, so don’t be surprised if they cause problems for Jones as well.
New England has a massive divisional game against Buffalo next week, so this could be a letdown spot that ends their winning streak. I think Tennessee prevails in a close game.
Prediction: Titans 23, Patriots 20
Titans vs Patriots Best Bets
Best Bet: Titans +5.5 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
Given how well Tennessee has played this year, I’m surprised to see New England favored by so much on our NFL gameday odds. It seems like an overreaction to the Titans’ poor Week 11 performance, which was largely driven by Ryan Tannehill‘s four interceptions.
With both teams clicking on defense, I project this game to be a defensive struggle where neither side is able to pull away. That makes it difficult to feel comfortable siding with the Patriots on the spread, especially since Tennessee is 4-1 on the road this year.
Give me the Titans plus the points.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
The Under is 5-6 in Titans games and 6-5 in Patriots games, but both defenses are rolling right now. Tennessee’s offense is in disarray without Henry and Julio Jones and will likely struggle against a defense allowing just 16.1 points per game.
Meanwhile, New England’s run-first offense lacks explosive playmakers and has scored 25 points or less in seven of its 11 games. That trend could very well continue against an improving Titans defense that bends without breaking.
All signs point to a relatively low-scoring game on what’s expected to be a chilly day in Foxborough, making the Under our NFL bet of the day.
Frank Ammirante’s 2021 NFL Betting Record: 19-8, +19.07 Units
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