Week 12 features an NFC team that is fighting to stay in the playoff hunt and an AFC team that is fighting to not finish last in the conference.
The Falcons are coming off their sixth loss of the season, a shutout 25-0 loss at home on Thursday Night Football to the red-hot Patriots. The Jaguars are back home following back-to-back losses to teams that appear to be finding some momentum in the 49ers and the Colts.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at our Falcons vs. Jaguars predictions and best bets.
Please note that all odds and lines are current as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 23.
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Falcons vs. Jaguars Prediction
Atlanta is 31st in scoring defense, allowing 28.8 points per game. Over the last three games, they are somehow giving up even more (31 points per game allowed).
The Falcons offense, led by franchise quarterback Matt Ryan and their dynamic duo of weapons, Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson, have fallen off and are now 27th in scoring at 17.8 points per game. They’ve scored just 10 points per game over their last three outings.
Ryan, behind a poor offensive line, has been sacked 20 times and has thrown 10 interceptions on the season. This has stifled their offensive movement, especially with star wideout Calvin Ridley sitting out due to personal reasons.
The Falcons have had more success on the road. Lucky for them, they head to Duval to play the Jaguars, who are just 2-4 at home.
Jacksonville’s defense ranks 25th in points allowed, but it has started to really come into its own, giving up just 19 points per game over their last three outings.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Jaguars are 31st in the league, scoring just 15.9 points per game. Somehow, they have gotten worse over their last three games, averaging just 12 points per game.
Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence simply has not been productive, throwing just eight touchdowns and nine interceptions with an underwhelming 58.4 completion percentage. To make matters worse, the Jaguars have added Swiss-army knife Jamal Agnew to their list of injuries originally headlined by DJ Chark and rookie running back Travis Etienne.
Many might feel inclined to go with the Jaguars here after seeing the Falcons in Week 11 on Thursday Night Football. However, I would advise against it. Lawrence isn’t good enough to go toe-to-toe with Matt Ryan and win, and while the defense has been inspiring, the Jaguars’ offense is getting worse.
The Atlanta defense might not be the best, but it won’t be hard to stop the Jaguars’ anemic offense and put points on the board with Patterson back from injury.
With the Falcons sitting at 4-6 and their hopes slowly fading in the NFC after back-to-back blowout losses, they need this win in Jacksonville. As I originally said, one team is fighting for a playoff chance and the other is fighting so they don’t finish last in the conference. Jacksonville’s defense will battle, but in the end, their lackluster offensive play will once again be their downfall.
The Falcons will prevail following productive games from their playmakers and a couple of turnovers from their defense.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Jaguars 10
Falcons vs. Jaguars Best Bets
Best Bet: Falcons Moneyline (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
After looking at our NFL gameday odds, this game is a straight-up pick ’em at this moment in time. I don’t like the Jaguars at all in this game.
I truly expect the Falcons to dominate and bounce back in a big way on the road. The Jaguars simply had no answer the last two weeks after shutting down the Bills offense in Week 9. That wasn’t a normal game and I do not expect the Falcons offense to look that pedestrian.
While I do think the Jaguars have talent, there is no telling how significant a loss Agnew will be for the offense moving forward. Plus, they already were horrible to begin with. The Falcons are getting back Patterson and get to play against a struggling rookie quarterback.
As previously mentioned, I like the Falcons to win big. I’m making this my NFL bet of the day.
Best Bet: Under 46.5 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
When you combine the Falcons’ points scored and points allowed averages, you get 46.6 points. Meanwhile, Jaguars games have averaged 41.8 points.
Both teams have average red zone offenses, with Jacksonville scoring touchdowns in the red zone 59.09% of the time. The Jaguars have the upper hand on the defensive side, ranking 16th in NFL red zone defense, allowing touchdowns in the red zone at a 59.46% clip. The Falcons are 26th in that category, allowing touchdowns in the red zone 68.42% of the time.
This doesn’t concern me, though, because the Jaguars have the worst red zone appearance rate (2.2 per game) and have been even worse lately (1.7 per game over their last three). Atlanta is only 21st in red zone appearances, but I still expect the Falcons to blowout the Jaguars, although not by enough to make you sweat out this Under bet.
I’m looking at 37 total points and that is why betting the Under on a 46.5 total points line is the right call.
Thank you for reading our NFL Week 12 Falcons vs. Jaguars Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 12 Best Bets.