After getting absolutely shellacked in their biggest test yet against Oregon, the Colorado Buffaloes will face another top-10 opponent as they host the #8 USC Trojans.
Following that first loss of the season, coach Deion Sanders promised that the Buffaloes would take a step up, but it’s hard to imagine this tough matchup being the spot for a big improvement, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks for another edition of the “Coach Prime” show against USC and Heisman winner Caleb Williams.
USC vs Colorado Odds
Track our latest CFB odds for the Trojans vs the Buffalos.
NCAAF lines used below for USC @ Colorado were current as of Sept. 25 at 2:00 p.m. EST on DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: USC (-1600) • Colorado (+900)
- Spread: USC -22 (-110) • Colorado +22 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 73.5 (-110) • Under 73.5 (-110)
The market was completely right to make Oregon a big favorite against Colorado last week, and they’ve done it again with Lincoln Riley’s USC squad. The Buffs didn’t contribute to the total much last week, but that number is even higher at 73.5 with USC’s super-charged offense coming to town.
USC vs. Colorado Prediction
SCORE PICK: USC 56, Colorado 24
Colorado got a reality check against Oregon, by far the best team they’ve faced yet on both sides of the ball. USC’s offense is just as potent as the Ducks’ attack, if not more; Caleb Williams has gotten off to a great start in his Heisman repeat effort, and the team overall has scored 56 or more points in three of their first four games.
They faltered a bit in their win over Arizona State last week, which was a bit more competitive than expected. Still, the Colorado defense has been a complete liability to start the year, especially in their last game with do-it-all superstar Travis Hunter sidelined with an injury.
Shedeur Sanders had a really rough day after starting the year on fire. He threw for just 159 yards, less than half of his per-game average over the season’s first three contests. He got caught looking downfield, and against a solid Oregon defensive front, he finally got punished for holding onto the ball for far too long.
That game should be a learning experience for Sanders and the rest of the Colorado offense, so they should score more than those seven points as they face a very shaky USC defense, but it’s also a reminder that we can’t expect 400 yards from him every week.
It can’t get much worse than the Oregon game for Colorado, so I’m projecting a bounce-back in a way, at least offensively. But the USC offense has been just about unstoppable to start the year, and Colorado’s defense has shown no ability to stop the run, and without Hunter, the pass either. USC should be able to score at will and run away with the win in another high-scoring affair.
USC vs Colorado Best Bets
Over 73.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
This is definitely my CFB bet of the day out of everything that’s available right now, as the market is relatively limited, just offering spread, moneyline, and total. There’s absolutely no reason to believe that this is the game that USC’s offense finally slows down, especially with the running back duo of Marshawn Lloyd and Austin Jones both averaging over eight yards per carry and set to face what has been a helpless run defense thus far.
Of course, Williams and the air game are also a huge factor, with guys like Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice chipping in nicely to lead a well-rounded receiving room, in which Mario Williams is in sixth place on the team with 127 receiving yards.
The Colorado passing attack through Sanders suffered a setback last week but should rebound against this USC secondary. Xavier Weaver and Jimmy Horn are both off to an outstanding start after coming over from USF together, and running back Dylan Edwards actually has more receiving yards than rushing.
The absence of Hunter hurts this play on the Colorado side of things, but it definitely helps on the USC offensive end, as without him, the Buffaloes really have no answer to Williams and his weapons.
USC -22 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
This number has already moved a bit, and while I would absolutely prefer to get 21 or lower, the bet here has to be on a blowout. USC moved down several spots in the polls after a too-close-for-comfort win over Arizona State, and Riley will undoubtedly take exception to that.
He’s pulled Williams and other starters with time to spare in games, but in this one, especially against a Colorado team that has drawn a lot of media attention, expect him to run up the score and make a statement.
Colorado will also be pushing to the final whistle, but as we saw against Oregon, it might not matter. The Buffaloes should do better offensively in this one, but their offensive line is not strong enough to truly exploit USC’s questionable run defense.
Colorado’s defense, which is 103rd in the nation in EPA per game, might be exploited even more than it was against the Ducks, as they’re forced to face USC’s offense, which ranks first in both EPA per play and success rate.
🏈 Find the best Colorado sports betting sites to bet on the Buffaloes.
USC vs Colorado Same Game Parlay
USC vs Colorado SGP (+264)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 unit
- USC -22 (-110)
- O 73.5 (-110)
With a relatively limited Same Game Parlay market, we will combine the two picks we’ve already made to increase the payout. This is a good play, as the two legs are absolutely correlated; the later in the game the Trojans decide to keep pushing the ball and score more points, the more ability they’ll have to truly pull away and cover the spread.
