The 2024 Final Four is set, and we’ve got some intriguing matchups to look forward to.
Can DJ Burns Jr. and NC State continue their magical March run against Purdue? And what answers will Mark Sears and Alabama have for a dominant UConn squad?
As the NCAA Tournament shifts to Phoenix, let’s dig into some of my favorite March Madness prop bets for the Final Four.
March Madness Final Four Props
NC State: Under 68.5 Points (-115)
NC State vs. Purdue • DraftKings Sportsbook (1 unit)
Underestimating NC State has come at a significant cost to those who have doubted the Wolfpack throughout their runs to the ACC Tournament title and Final Four.
However, Purdue poses a different threat to Kevin Keatts’ squad than its most recent opponents, namely due to the presence of 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey.
The reigning National Player of the Year anchors the Boilermakers’ defense and is an intimidating presence at the rim. Edey also causes problems for opponents by drawing fouls on the offensive end of the court — he drew 16 fouls in the Elite 8 win over Tennessee.
That feels like it’s going to be problematic for the Wolfpack, who often run their offense through the 6-foot-9, 275-pound Burns. Not only will he and others have opposition at the rim, but NC State will likely deal with foul trouble throughout the game.
The Wolfpack don’t attempt or make enough three-pointers to trouble a Purdue team that has held all of its opponents to 68 points or fewer in the tournament. I expect NC State to follow suit.
Zach Edey: Over 13.5 Rebounds (-105)
Purdue vs. NC State • bet365 Sportsbook (1 unit)
This prop is heavily weighted to the Under (-125), but I don’t agree with these NCAAB odds.
Edey has a significant height advantage over all of NC State’s bigs, including Burns and the 6-foot-10 duo of Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks.
Most importantly, he has also done very well to stay out of foul trouble, picking up just three personals in 77 minutes of action across the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
Edey averages 12.2 rebounds per game and has gone Over this total in all four tournament games this year. With no one near his size on the opposition, he should collect 14-plus boards on Saturday night.
Mark Sears: Over 2.5 Made Threes (-115)
Alabama vs. UConn • bet365 Sportsbook (2 units)
Volume is vital when it comes to three-point props, and there should be no shortage of opportunities for Alabama’s sharpshooters on Saturday night.
The Crimson Tide are 11.5-point underdogs against defending national champions UConn, and their best way of springing a colossal upset will be to terrorize the Huskies from deep.
Nate Oats’ squad is well-versed in analytics-backed basketball, maximizing its attempts from three, at the rim, and the free-throw line.
Alabama attempts over 30 three-pointers per game (fourth-most in the country) and knocked down 16-of-36 attempts in its West Regional Final win over Clemson.
Sears was responsible for seven makes and 14 attempts, his highest output in both categories since he went 8-for-16 from deep in a December loss to fellow Final Four participant Purdue.
The senior guard will surely attract plenty of attention from UConn’s defense, but he is the best player on the team and will likely go out firing. Back Sears to make at least three threes as your best college basketball bet today.
Tristen Newton: 7+ Assists (+135)
UConn vs. Alabama • bet365 Sportsbook (1 unit)
If you’re looking for a plus-money Final Four prop, Tristen Newton’s assists aren’t a bad option.
The UConn point guard averages 6.1 dimes per game and should have plenty of opportunities to create for others in a matchup against an Alabama team that plays at a frenetic pace and allows 81.1 points per game.
And while the Huskies generally like to slow games down to a crawl, the Tide’s reliance on three-point shooting should create long rebounds and give the Huskies plenty of transition opportunities. Look for Newton to take advantage and find willing runners on the break.
The senior guard has hit this threshold in two of four tournament games so far and has recorded six games with double-digit dimes this season, so I wouldn’t hate throwing some spare change on his 10-plus assists prop (+750) as well.
