PGA Championship Predictions & Best Bets 2023 | PGA Odds & Betting Picks

Last Updated: May 18, 2022

The 2022 PGA Championship will take place this week at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Okla. and there are plenty of storylines heading into the second major of the year.

Defending champion Phil Mickelson, who rolled back the years to hold off Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen last summer at Kiawah Island, will not be defending his title. Mickelson, who hasn’t played on the PGA Tour since January, has been the subject of controversy after making eye-opening comments on the Saudi-backed LIV Golf league and withdrew from the field last Friday.

While Mickelson won’t be teeing it up, Tiger Woods is set to make his second start of the year after making the cut and finishing 47th at the Masters. Woods has some fond memories at Southern Hills, winning the PGA Championship here in 2007 — the last time the course hosted a major championship.

Most of the chatter will be focused on those two superstars, which could be good news for Jordan Spieth. Fresh off a win and a runner-up finish in his last two starts, Spieth will look to join Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, and Gary Player as the only players to complete the career Grand Slam.

PGA Championship Winner Odds 2022

PGA Championship winner odds are current as of Monday, May 16, at 10 a.m. ET and courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

  • Scottie Scheffler (+1100)
  • Jon Rahm (+1100)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1400)
  • Justin Thomas (+1400)
  • Collin Morikawa (+1600)
  • Dustin Johnson (+1800)
  • Jordan Spieth (+2000)
  • Cameron Smith (+2000)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
  • Viktor Hovland (+2200)
  • Xander Schauffele (+2200)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

Sportsbook Play of the Day

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Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our PGA Championship tipster picks.

PGA Championship Field

Unlike the Masters, the PGA Championship is a full-field event.

As of Monday morning, there are 155 players currently in this year’s field, with the top 70 and ties making the cut after the first two rounds of play.

In addition to Mickelson, other notable absences from the field include Harris English (hip), Paul Casey (back), and Sungjae Im (COVID-19). Bryson DeChambeau (hand) hasn’t played since the Masters but is seemingly going to try to give it a go.

Otherwise, all of the top players in the world will be teeing it up for a shot at a major championship and a $2.16 million payday for first place.

PGA Championship Weather

The weather forecast looks to be generally rain-free, but wind could certainly play a factor at times over the course of the week.

Friday looks like it has the potential to be the windiest of the four days, with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph in the morning and still whipping around 20-30 mph for most of the afternoon.

Temperatures for the first two days should peak in the low-to-mid 80s, but it is expected to cool off significantly over the weekend. Players finishing up late on Saturday or teeing off early on Sunday could be in for a bit of a chill as temperatures could drop below 50 at times.

PGA Championship Winner Prediction

Hideki Matsuyama (+3300) at BetMGM

When healthy, Hideki Matsuyama has been one of the best players on Tour this season. He’s got a pair of wins at the ZOZO (November) and the Sony Open (January) and has finished 39th or better in every start this calendar year.

Matsuyama shrugged off any nagging injury concerns with a T-3 finish last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson, ending the week just two shots off the pace and leading the field with 9.4 strokes gained on approach.

We know Hideki can handle the undulations as he’s got a great track record of success at the Masters and has the short game (if the putter cooperates) to accompany those scorching hot irons. While Americans have won the last six PGA Championships, I think Matsuyama is more than capable of breaking that trend this week.

PGA Championship Best Bets

Jordan Spieth Top-5 Finish (+400) at Caesars

I’m admittedly a sucker when it comes to betting on Spieth, but it’s hard to ignore his results since missing the cut at the Masters.

He won the RBC Heritage the following week, took a few weeks off, and then posted a runner-up finish last week at the Byron Nelson. The scariest part is Spieth still hasn’t found consistency with his putter, which is typically his biggest weapon.

The 28-year-old has made massive strides with the driver, which was the root of his problems over the past few years, and has continued to gain on approach and around the green. The pressure of the completing the career Grand Slam will be difficult to overcome, but he’s been playing too well to disappoint at a course that should suit him.

Scottie Scheffler Top-10 Finish (+135)

The hottest golfer on the planet just keeps on rolling.

In his first start since winning the Masters, Scheffler finished in a tie for 15th at the Byron Nelson but gained strokes off the tee (1.1), on approach (5.6), and around the green (1.9) over the course of the week.

That’s an encouraging sign heading into this week for the world No. 1, who has won four of his last seven starts. Scheffler has finished in the top 10 in each of the last four majors, so despite the low odds, this seems like a decent bet.

Will Zalatoris Top-20 Finish (+150)

Zalatoris may have limited major championship experience, but the early returns in his young career have been phenomenal. The 25-year-old came second in the 2021 Masters and followed that up with a T-6 finish in April. He also has top-10s at both the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.

Although he doesn’t have a PGA Tour win just yet, Zalatoris is clearly a big game hunter and his style of play is well-suited for long, difficult golf courses. Getting that first win this week will be a tall order, but I expect Zalatoris to be in the mix once again.

Wire-to-Wire Winner (+1500)

This is a Caesars odds boost that I believe is worth backing.

Of the seven major championships that have been held at Southern Hills, the winner has held at least a share of the lead in each round on five separate occasions, per’s Jim McCabe.

Scoring will be hard to come by, so it’s not likely that players will be able to chase down the leader from a significant deficit. Whoever can go out and post a low score on Thursday will be at a significant advantage.

PGA Championship Course Tips

Southern Hills Country Club (Tulsa, Okla.)

  • Par 70 (7,556 yards)
  • While the PGA Championship has been held at Southern Hills before, this will be the first look at the new layout after the course underwent a significant restoration process and reopened for play in 2019.
  • Of the major differences, length is a notable one as the course will play 300 yards longer than it did when it last hosted this event in 2007. There are only two Par 5s on the property and neither provides an easy scoring opportunity, as both measure over 630 yards.
  • Among other changes, Gil Hanse and his redesign team added additional bunkers to guard the greens and contoured the edges of those greens to provide additional roll off. Much like Augusta National, an excellent short game will be required and par will be a good score on most holes.
  • Southern Hills will also draw plenty of comparisons to Augusta National this week because of the undulations of the golf course. Players will have to deal with awkward stances, elevation changes, and uncertain bounces much like they do at the Masters.
  • This will be the first time Southern Hills has hosted a major that didn’t take place in the peak of the summer. The PGA Championship used to be the fourth major of the calendar year, and that 2007 event in early August saw temperatures reach 100 degrees. Without any rain in the forecast, the course will likely still play firm and fast but the temperatures won’t be unbearable.
  • Much like many of the events over the last few weeks, the greens at Southern Hills are made of bentgrass. Remember that each player has their preferred putting surface, so be sure to check on that before placing your bets!

PGA Championship Event Details

  • Dates: Thursday, May 19 - Sunday, May 22, 2022
  • Course: Southern Hills Country Club
  • Course Dimensions: Par 70 (7,556 yards)
  • 2021 PGA Championship Winner: Phil Mickelson
  • How to Watch: ESPN/CBS


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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