This weekend’s AFC East matchup features one team playing for playoff seeding and one team playing for pride.
The New England Patriots (10-6) head to Florida with a playoff berth locked up, but still have a myriad of seeding possibilities depending on how they and other teams perform this weekend.
Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins (8-8) came this close to having this game be a must-win for a playoff berth, but saw their seven-game win streak snapped last weekend and will miss the postseason.
Mac Jones is coming off a three-touchdown performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, while the Patriots’ run game has been firing on all cylinders with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson.
On the other side of the field, Tua Tagovailoa has been playing great football during the second half of the season, while Jaylen Waddle is one of the best offensive rookies in the league this year.
Let’s dig in to find the best Patriots vs Dolphins prop bets for this weekend’s AFC East battle.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 3:00 p.m. ET on Friday, January 7.
Patriots vs Dolphins Prop Bets: NFL Week 18 Prop Betting Picks
Mac Jones: OVER 214.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Mac Jones hit a bit of a rookie wall earlier in the season, but he turned things around last week against Jacksonville. Excluding the crazy gale-force winds game in Buffalo where Jones threw only three passes, he’s topped this total in three of his last four games.
While Miami’s secondary represents a tough matchup for Jones, this is a relatively low total for him. He’s already cleared this mark 10 times in 16 games this season, including his NFL debut against these same Dolphins during Week 1.
Take the Over for our NFL bet of the day.
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Tua Tagovailoa: UNDER 226.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
While Tua Tagovailoa has looked much more comfortable during the second half of the season, his stats haven’t always reflected that comfort, as he’s thrown for 205 yards or less in three straight games and five of his last eight.
- Read our full Patriots vs Dolphins Predictions
He’ll also have to face a tough Patriots defense that’s allowing only 208 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks this year. Tua managed just 202 passing yards against them during Week 1, so it’s hard to envision him hitting the Over here.
Jaylen Waddle: OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Jaylen Waddle has been the engine that makes the Dolphins’ offense run this season, leading the team in targets (133), receptions (99), and receiving yards (988).
While the Patriots do a great job limiting opposing receivers, they don’t have a true shutdown corner and have been playing a lot of zone this season. Look for Waddle to be busy again this week and exploit New England’s zone coverage.
Mac Jones: OVER 0.5 Interceptions (+140) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
One of Jones’ biggest strengths this year has been his lack of mistakes. He’s been a little careless with the ball lately, however, throwing four picks over his last three games.
There’s a good chance Jones is again forced into another mistake this week against a Miami defense that has already racked up 13 interceptions this year, including three in their last four games.