NFL Week 18 Prop Bets | Best NFL Prop Predictions & Picks Today

We missed another winning week by half a point. Sometimes, oftentimes, that’s all it takes.

After a dominating 7-1 Week 16, we finished Week 17 at 4-4. I was all over Dallas and Arizona being a low-scoring slugfest. I whiffed on Indianapolis vs. Las Vegas. And I split on everything else.

It has been an eternity since I posted a losing week, and I don’t expect to start just as the regular season is winding down.

Still, the last week of the regular season presents plenty of challenges. Playoff teams will rest players. Motivation will certainly be a factor. New variables in a variable-heavy year will appear.

But I am ready for it.

No, we are ready for it.

Here are my best NFL Week 18 prop bets as we march toward the playoffs. Please note that all odds and lines are current as of 3 PM EST on Wednesday, January 5.

NFL Week 18 Best Prop Bets

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

As it turns out, the Cardinals can play a little defense. Sure, having Kyler Murray is a wonderful luxury, but as we saw against the Cowboys on Sunday, Arizona is far more than its QB and offensive-minded head coach.

That win was much needed entering the home stretch, and with Arizona’s seeding still up in the air, a win over Seattle certainly wouldn’t hurt. There’s still a possibility to win the NFC West, and I think we’ll see their best effort as such.

Seattle, meanwhile, just posted a 50-burger against the Lions. It was Detroit, although QB Russell Wilson and RB Rashaad Penny both posted huge games.

Will this be Wilson’s final game in Seattle? And will it impact this result whatsoever?

Probably.

And, no.

Over 9.5 First Quarter Points (-120) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

The Cardinals’ defense was great, although I expect Seattle, which has been better offensively, to put forth a better effort. This will be a much different game than what we saw from Arizona on Sunday.

prop bet

-120

Seahawks @ Cardinals: OVER 9.5 1Q Points

SEA @ ARI | 01/09, 4:25 PM ET

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Cardinals Over 27.5 Points (-115) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

Give the Cowboys credit. While the offense struggled, that excellent defense showed up. Seattle doesn’t have that same luxury. The Murray show will be back fully operational.

prop bet

-115

Cardinals OVER 27.5 Points vs Seahawks

SEA @ ARI | 01/09, 4:25 PM ET

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New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

After all that, we’re back where we started. The Bills are in a position to win the AFC East with a win over the Jets, and the oddsmakers like their chances. Buffalo is more than a two-touchdown favorite against the Jets in the season finale per our NFL gameday odds.

Now, New York has played much better in recent weeks. While Tom Brady did Tom Brady things last week in the final moments for Tampa Bay, the Jets have been playing much better.

Zach Wilson has quietly improved, and the defense, which has had some blowups, has also been better of late.

But the urgency for the Bills is likely to be high, and playing at home in some potential ugly weather—something to keep an eye on—should also work in Buffalo’s favor.

Low-scoring.

Ugly.

Yes, it’s likely going to be that kind of game.

Bills -4.5 First Quarter Spread (-105) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

The Bills won this first game 45-17 on the road. I don’t expect this outcome to be that bad – especially if there is bad weather – but Buffalo gets it cookin’ early.

prop bet

-105

Bills Cover -4.5 1Q spread vs Jets

NYJ @ BUF | 01/09, 1:00 PM ET

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Under 21 First Half Points (-110) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

Here’s a perfectly reasonable first-half score I envision: Bills 13, Jets 3. Buffalo is likely to dominate, although it will do so somewhat differently.

prop bet

-110

Jets @ Bills: UNDER 21 1H Points

NYJ @ BUF | 01/09, 1:00 PM ET

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Stefon Diggs Buffalo Bills WR

The Week 18 AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets figures to be a low-scoring game with lots of defensive highlights. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)


Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

After losing its best player, we thought the Titans’ season was over. But even without star running back Derrick Henry, who was just cleared to return, Tennessee is in a position to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

A win over the Texans, and that’s precisely what will happen. With a bye at stake and Henry cleared to return, the urgency is enormous.

The Texans had won two games in a row – including one over the Chargers – before falling last week to San Francisco while scoring only seven points. Rookie QB Davis Mills has been a pleasant surprise, and he’s easily outperformed all reasonable expectations.

The point spread in this matchup is double digits. That being said, the Texans have shown some heart, and I believe they’ll show a bit more of it in the finale – enough to dive headfirst into a couple of different prop bets.

Texans +6.5 First Half Spread (-105) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

For at least a little while, the No. 1 seed will feel up for grabs. The Texans will do just enough offensively early on to keep this within a touchdown.

prop bet

-105

Texans Cover +6.5 1H Spread vs Titans

TEN @ HOU | 01/09, 1:00 PM ET

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Texans Over 15.5 Points (-120) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

Last week, the Texans could muster only seven points. Playing at home, I expect a higher output. Look for the offense to have just enough success to hit this mark.

prop bet

-120

Texans OVER 15.5 Points vs Titans

TEN @ HOU | 01/09, 1:00 PM ET

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Best NFL Prop Bets Today

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

There’s a possibility that a tie between these two teams would give both access to the NFL postseason. While I am an architect of chaos, it is unlikely that this scenario transpires. It begins with the Colts losing to the Jaguars.

With the line north of two touchdowns, I’m not holding my breath. Instead, the winner of the final Sunday Night Football game of the year is likely in the playoffs.

What perhaps didn’t feel like a compelling game a month ago suddenly is. The Raiders have won three games in a row. The latest, a 23-20 victory over the Colts, was far and away the most compelling.

QB Derek Carr turned the ball over twice, although he largely played well. And the Raiders’ defense was able to keep the ball out of Jonathan Taylor’s hands enough.

The focus will now turn to slowing down Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert, which will not be easy. And yet, I expect Las Vegas to be up for it at home.

Raiders Score First (+105) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

I really like the value here. Again, we’ll assume that the Chargers will score first given the QB. But the Raiders have started faster in recent weeks, and they will again in Week 18.

prop bet

+105

Raiders Score 1st vs Chargers

LAC @ LV | 01/09, 4:25 PM ET

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Under 9.5 First Quarter Points (+105) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

While the Raiders have gotten off to good starts, their games have been meatgrinders of sorts. This will be another one.

prop bet

+105

Chargers @ Raiders: UNDER 9.5 1Q Points

LAC @ LV | 01/09, 4:25 PM ET

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Thanks for reading our NFL Week 18 Prop Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 18 Parlays.

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NFL Betting News

  • Early money slightly leaning towards the over in the 49ers-Rams matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting good two-way action on the over/under for the NFC Championship Game matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 46 points has attracted 55% of the bets and 60% of the money thus far. Much moreso than the AFC Championship Game, the betting splits on the point spread and total in this game are much more evenly split, so the sportsbook does not have too much liability on either at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Los Angeles's -170 moneyline odds have attracted 60% of the bets and 70% of the money.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early bettors give slight lean to the Rams over the 49ers

    Based on the betting splits at DraftKings Sportsbook, the favored Los Angeles Rams are getting slightly more betting attention in their matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Los Angeles's -3.5 point spread has received 65% of the bets and 61% of the handle thus far. Bettors are clearly torn in this matchup considering the Rams have arguably been playing better football through the first two playoff games, while the 49ers have won six consecutive games against the Rams, including a thrilling Week 18 overtime victory in Los Angeles.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page

  • Early money more than 4/1 on the over in the Bengals-Chiefs matchup

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's over/under in the matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the over of 54.5 points has attracted 75% of the bets and 85% of the money thus far. At this point, the sportsbook has big liability to the Chiefs point spread and the over in this matchup, as their most ideal scenario would be a Bengals cover in a low-scoring game at the moment. From a moneyline perspective, Kansas City's -335 moneyline odds have attracted 58% of the bets and 61% of the money.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • Early money 3/1 on the Chiefs over the Bengals

    DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting one-sided betting action for Sunday's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, as the majority of the action is backing the favored Chiefs.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, Kansas City's -7 point spread has received 61% of the bets and 76% of the handle thus far. Cincinnati is shaping up to be the biggest need of any side or any total this weekend, as the public seems to be enamored with the Chiefs after their thrilling Divisional Round win over Buffalo.

    CIN vs. KC Game Page

  • 49ers-Rams over/under reaches lowest number of the week

    After another line movement, the over/under for the NFC Championship matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams has reached its lowest total of the week.

    Betting Impact:
    Per DraftKings, the 49ers-Rams over/under on Sunday night was posted at 47.5 points. It was quickly bet down to 46.5 in less than 24 hours. However, it has once again moved toward the under, and now currently sits at 46 points. Given that there has not yet been buyback on the over, it is extremely unlikely we see the total get back to anywhere close to the 47.5 points it opened at.

    SF vs. LAR Game Page