Why Are Kalshi Prediction Markets Available in the US, Including Washington?
Each state has its own regulations and laws in place, so while some states allow certain things, others do not. For example, you can try sports betting in some states but it’s not available in others.
Kalshi does not offer betting on sports or any other topics. Prediction markets work in a completely different way. While each state decides whether to allow sports betting or not, prediction markets are overseen and regulated at a federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees various financial services. This basically means that decisions taken by the CFTC apply to all 50 states.
So, if you’re wondering whether Kalshi is legal in California as well, the answer is yes.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
To better understand why Kalshi is legal in Texas and 49 other states, I’ll explain how prediction markets work. Kalshi offers plenty of prediction markets across a range of topics, including:
- Sports
- Elections
- Politics
- Culture
- Crypto
- Commodities
- Economics
Trade Event Contracts in Your Chosen Prediction Market
You’ll notice that I’ve included sports in the above examples. You can access sports prediction markets at Kalshi from Washington and all other states at present. Remember - you’re not betting on them, you’re trading event contracts instead.
I’ve listed some event contract examples in this table to give you an idea of what you can find there. In every case, you’re presented with Yes or No possibilities. I’ll cover those in more detail in a second.
| Prediction Market Topic | Examples of Event Contracts in Those Topics |
|---|---|
| Elections | Presidential nominees State Governor nominees Elections in the US and around the world |
| Sports | World Cup winner College and pro baseball matches Tennis Grand Slams |
| Culture | Rotten Tomatoes movie scores Music chart entries Potential Oscar winners |
| Climate | Highest temperature today in a specific state Will this be the hottest year on record? Number of tornadoes this month in a specific state |
Predict a Yes or No Outcome
Prediction markets live up to their name by offering two predictions - Yes or No. You basically need to predict whether the event in question will happen (Yes) or not (No).
Here’s where the opinions of other participants come into play, too. If 75% of people trading on a specific market think the outcome will happen, this means 25% think it won’t. You’d then pay 75 cents for each Yes contract and 25 cents for each No contract. Bear in mind you’ll likely have some Kalshi fees to consider as well.
The percentages for Yes and No outcomes show you the cost of each event contract. As you might imagine, the Yes and No percentages can vary over time depending on what’s happening and on the performance of a movie, sports team, or whatever else the prediction market is based on.
The Market Resolves to Reveal the Outcome
Let’s say a new movie is predicted to get a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100%. Before the movie releases, 10% of people think it will get that score, whereas 90% think it won’t.
If you’re correct, you will receive $1 for every event contract you purchased for your outcome. If you didn’t pick the correct outcome, you’d lose out and wouldn’t receive anything.
Every prediction market at Kalshi will give you a date at which the market will conclude. For example, the Rotten Tomatoes movie score might relate to the score achieved one month after the movie’s release.
Pros and Cons of Using Kalshi in Washington
It makes sense that you’d want to know the availability of Kalshi in your state before you try signing up. For example, Kalshi is legal in Florida too, a state where you can’t take part in sports betting but you can trade sporting event contracts on Kalshi. Washington lawmakers are challenging the situation, so I’d suggest you keep track of what’s happening. I’ve listed a few key points to remember here.
Pros
- Regulated at federal level
- Lots of prediction markets
- User-friendly design
Cons
- Potential uncertainty over future
Kalshi Does Work in Washington State
It provides an accessible and wide-ranging website covering prediction markets on all manner of topics, from the latest movie releases and their performances to sporting events including the football World Cup, the Grand Slams in tennis, and the Olympics. Kalshi provides event contracts on hundreds of prediction markets each day.
You can visit Kalshi from your home in Washington by clicking on any of my links on this page. Whether you follow sports or what’s happening on the economics front or even in forthcoming elections, you’ll find plenty of prediction markets covering everything from famous events to the more obscure ones at Kalshi. And since federal laws cover its operation, you can indeed access Kalshi from anywhere in Washington state just now.
