What Are Kalshi Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets cover a variety of financial markets, but they’re based on potential outcomes of various events in the worlds of sport, economics, and even cultural topics.
I’ve gone through hundreds of prediction markets on Kalshi and brought together some highlights for you here, so you can see the type of topics you’ll come across. You can access the site in New York, but Kalshi is available in California and all remaining US states too, so wherever you are in the US, you can find these and many other possibilities.
| Prediction Market Category | Examples |
|---|---|
| Sports | Match winners Score predictions |
| Finance | S&P price IPO announcements |
| Commodities | Oil prices Gas prices |
| Culture | Netflix show views Next James Bond actor |
| Politics | US confirms existence of aliens Presidential approval ratings |
Obviously, you’ll see different prediction markets at different times of the year. I found plenty of award ceremonies near the start of the year, with prediction markets covering lots of sporting events throughout the year. This means you can keep up with the latest happenings in lots of topics at Kalshi - and see what other people think could happen.
Prediction Markets Are Based on Pairs
This means you’ll get two options to consider with each market:
- Yes
- No
Let’s check out a current prediction market at Kalshi that I’ve mentioned in the above table - predictions on which actor will be the next James Bond. Several names made the list recently, including Callum Turner, Jacob Elordi, and Harris Dickinson. While this example applies if you’re in New York, Kalshi is also available in Florida and elsewhere, so for clarity, it works the same across all states.
You will see a percentage for Yes and another one for No for each actor. This gives you the percentage of people who believe that outcome will occur. Callum Turner currently tops the list with 53% of people backing him to be the next 007.
If you agree with this, you’d purchase event contracts priced at $0.53. Note that you’ll likely have Kalshi fees on top of that. Prediction markets can also change, so the 53% might rise or fall if news comes out connecting him more strongly to the role… or suggesting that he won’t be selected.
What Happens If You’re Correct?
Correct predictions bring you $1 per event contract. This applies to all correct predictions. So, if you bought 100 event contracts backing Callum Turner at 53% (53 cents each) and he does get the role, you’d receive $100.
What Happens If You’re Wrong?
If you back Callum Turner and he doesn’t get the role (it doesn’t matter who does), you won’t receive anything. You won’t get back anything spent on the event contracts you purchased either.
Why Is Kalshi Available in New York?
Now that you know how prediction markets work, you can see they’ve got nothing to do with betting - they’re based on predictions. You’ll see Yes event contracts and No event contracts for every market.
This means they’re a type of financial product. Since financial products are regulated and overseen by the CFTC, as I noted earlier, Kalshi rightly follows CFTC regulations. Those regulations work at a federal level rather than a state level.
Pros and Cons of Kalshi Availability in the Empire State
Since Kalshi is answerable to the CFTC, it means Kalshi is available in Texas too. Prediction markets provide you with a chance to trade event contracts on some of your favorite topics. Those could be anything from following your favorite sports team to what the local weather might do in New York in the next month. You can check some of the pros and cons of the service in New York here.
Pros
- Trade Yes or No event contracts
- Trade on movies, sports, and more
- Predict potential outcomes
Cons
- Must be 18 or over
Find Your Preferred Prediction Market Topics at Kalshi in NY
Kalshi has hundreds of prediction markets based on all the top sports, from football to baseball and tennis to golf. But it’s not all about sport. You can find prediction markets and event contracts based on economic events, foreign elections, and even the latest goings on in tech and science.
Since you can access Kalshi from the Empire State, you can explore all their available prediction markets and see their latest trending event contracts too. Use one of my links to head across to their official website and check it out. With straightforward Yes/No options for every market and topic, you’ll be able to see what other people believe might happen before you consider buying some event contracts there.
