Quick Facts About Kalshi Prediction Markets
- Kalshi offers prediction markets with Yes and No event contracts.
- Each event contract settles at $1 if your prediction is correct.
- Kalshi is legal in the US under CFTC regulations.
What Is Kalshi and How Does It Work?
Kalshi is an online platform for trading in peer-to-peer (P2P) prediction markets. The site works with contracts representing events in a Yes and No format. As such, you trade by choosing whether an outcome will occur. You can use the Kalshi website or install the mobile app; I prefer the latter.
At Kalshi, the contract prices you’ll see are the traders’ overall sentiment on how likely the prediction will happen. The higher the price, the more likely the market believes it to happen. Kalshi doesn’t assign them as well. Instead, the rates are determined by supply and demand conditions as traders buy, sell or even hold contracts.
While using Kalshi, I regularly observe prices increase when more traders purchase a contract. Likewise, the price decreases if users start selling. Because of its prediction market model, Kalshi is legal in Texas and several other US states.
How Does Kalshi Trading Work?
Trading on Kalshi isn’t complicated. When you see an event you want to predict, select it and tap Yes or No. Then enter the number of contracts you want to purchase, and submit. Each event contract is priced anywhere between $0.01 to $0.99.
If your prediction is correct, you’ll receive a $1 payout for each contract. However, if you’re wrong, the contract settles at $0. Check out this example of an NBA event I found on the Kalshi app:
| Outcome | Yes Contract Price | No Contract Price |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs to Win | $0.65 | $0.37 |
| New York Knicks to Win | $0.37 | $0.65 |
You can see that Yes for Spurs costs the same as No for the Knicks, and vice versa. The rates don’t always align due to differences between bid and ask prices, which is also why the Yes and No contracts add up to $1.02 instead of $1. When you buy or sell, you pay a trading fee of $0.01 to $0.02 per contract.
From the prices, you can estimate the probability of each outcome based on market sentiment. It’s roughly 65% for the Spurs to win and 37% for the Knicks. Buying 100 Yes contracts for the Spurs will cost you $65 in total. If the team wins, you get paid $100, resulting in a $35 profit.
Is Kalshi Legal in the US?
Kalshi is legal in the US, as the prediction market platform is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Under CFTC oversight, I confirmed that Kalshi is legal in California, New York, Florida, and many other states.
In my experience, prediction trading apps aren’t directly subject to individual state laws. Meaning, it can operate nationwide since it’s being regulated by the CFTC. However, access to the prediction market platform still depends on your location.
For instance, I verified that Kalshi doesn’t operate in a few states, including Nevada and Washington. Therefore, it’s necessary to check your local regulations to confirm if you can use Kalshi and what event contracts you can trade.
Kalshi Registration Requirements
If Kalshi works in your state, you can register on the site if you’re at least 18 years old. I created my account in less than 10 minutes by providing basic details in the onboarding form. Additionally, I had to upload my passport to verify my identity.
You’ll typically encounter the same registration procedure on Kalshi. If you pass the verification process, you can proceed to deposit and start prediction trading. Kalshi may request extra documents in some cases; if so, comply with the instructions, and your account should be approved.
Top Prediction Markets on Kalshi
How does Kalshi work? At this point, I’m sure you’re familiar with the platform’s operations. Now, I’ll explain the actual prediction markets Kalshi offers and what events you can trade. The site has more than 10, but these are the top categories:
Sports
Kalshi features events from more than 15 sports. With such a high count, you can expect the popular leagues in the US and beyond. Indeed, I saw games from the NFL, NBA, NCAA, MLB, NHL, UFC, and many other leagues on Kalshi.
For individual events, you can predict outcomes such as the game winner, spreads, and totals. In addition, the predictions cover player props and futures, depending on the sport. I was pleased to see that Kalshi also has a feature called Combos, which allows traders to combine multiple predictions into a single trade. They work not only for sports but also other event types.
Politics
If you prefer politics, Kalshi lets you buy and sell election-event contracts across different levels in the US. One of my best trades on the app was predicting the Florida Republican Governor nominee. Note that Kalshi is legal in Florida, in case you’re reading this from The Sunshine State.
Away from elections, Kalshi’s politics markets cover Congress decisions and individual politician actions. You can even predict happenings in other countries, such as the UK, Canada, Brazil, and more.
Culture
The culture events in Kalshi are pretty diverse. Each time I check, I spot outcomes related to movies, music, awards, TV shows, video games, and celebrities. Some random viral happenings on social media even make it to the app.
These are some recurring markets I usually trade:
- Weekly top song on Spotify
- Oscar for Best Picture
- Video game of the year
- Number of views for the most-watched Netflix TV show each week
Some of these events have multiple potential outcomes, but each still features a Yes-or-No contract.
Crypto
Kalshi’s crypto event contracts are mainly price-related. In other words, you predict what price the digital currencies will reach within a given period.
From my checks, BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, and HYPE are available. You can trade their price movements every 15 minutes, hourly, daily, monthly, or annually. I also spotted one-time crypto prediction markets.
Economics
Regarding economics, these are the main areas available on Kalshi:
- Fed decisions
- GDP
- Global central banks
- Growth
- Housing
- Inflation
- Jobs & economy
- Oil and energy
If you ask me, the markets are straightforward, and you’ll appreciate the events if you follow economic news.
Kalshi Payment Methods, Fees, and Taxes
The payment methods on Kalshi include debit cards, ACH transfer, wire transfer, crypto, PayPal, Cash App, and Venmo. However, the exact options you see will depend on your location. When I fund my account with debit cards, I usually pay Kalshi fees of up to 2%. The same applies to PayPal and Venmo after the first deposit. In contrast, Kalshi doesn’t have native withdrawal fees.
In my research, I saw this question a lot: How does Kalshi work for taxes? Well, the prediction market platform doesn’t withhold any taxes. It’ll only send you documentation if you cross certain thresholds, but you still file by yourself.
Kalshi Pros and Cons
Take note of these pros and cons if you decide to join Kalshi for prediction market trading:
Pros
- Operates under CFTC regulations
- 10+ prediction market categories
- No withdrawal fees
Cons
- Deposit fees of up to 2%
Conclusion – Kalshi Is a Top Prediction Market Brand
Kalshi prediction markets are all about buying and selling event contracts. I believe you can find your way around them even if it’s your first time, thanks to the simple Yes or No binary contract model. Go with Yes if you agree with the outcome and No if you don’t.
I rate Kalshi as one of the best US prediction market brands for its event variety. The platform is legal in most states with CFTC approval, so you can register and trade without issues. Click the banners on this page to visit Kalshi and get started.
