NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds & Predictions 2026

Assessing the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds is difficult because players in any position can win this award.

However, we can eliminate a good chunk of the contenders based on draft position, as no player selected outside of the NFL Draft’s top 40 picks has gone on to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year since New York Jets defensive back Erik McMillan (Round 3, Pick 63 in 1988)

With that in mind, I’ll assess the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds and predict who will take home the award.

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award Odds 2026

All football odds used for these NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year predictions are current as of Thursday, Aug. 27, and are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Rueben Bain Jr. (+470)
• David Bailey (+500)
• Caleb Downs (+700)
• Sonny Styles (+750)
• Arvell Reese (+850)
• Mansoor Delane (+1000)
• Jacob Rodriguez (+1500)
• Akheem Mesidor (+1500)
• Malachi Lawrence (+2700)
• Dillon Thieneman (+3300)
• Keldric Faulk (+3500)
• CJ Allen (+3500)
• T.J. Parker (+4000)

All other players have odds of +5000 or higher to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Who Will Win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year?

Caleb Downs (+700)

It’s rare for a safety to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, but there haven’t been many rookie safeties as NFL-ready as Caleb Downs.

The 21-year-old made 257 tackles and recorded six interceptions across three seasons of college football at Alabama and Ohio State, winning the National Championship as a sophomore with the Buckeyes.

The Dallas Cowboys traded up to select Downs with the 11th overall pick in April’s NFL Draft, putting an even bigger spotlight on one of the premier talents in this year’s class.

Downs joins a Dallas defense that was among the league’s worst last season, allowing NFL-highs in passing yards (251.5) and points (30.1) per game. However, the Cowboys have retooled significantly this offseason, giving Downs the potential to get credit for helping bring this defense to a respectable level.

Given his elite talent, large spotlight, and potential to help the team improve, I’m backing Caleb Downs to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 7-1 odds as my NFL pick of the day.

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Contenders

Rueben Bain Jr. (+470)

After being selected with the 15th pick in the 2026 NFL Draft by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Rueben Bain Jr. is the betting favorite in the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds.

The University of Miami (FL) product was often a one-man wrecking crew for the Hurricanes, recording 9.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss last season. He helped Miami reach the CFP National Championship Game and was recognized with the Ted Hendricks Award, annually given to the nation’s top defensive end.

Bain fills a significant pass-rush need for the Buccaneers, who ranked in the league’s bottom 10 last season in pressure rate and had just one player eclipse five sacks on the season (Yaya Diaby had seven).

While I love the player and the fit, the Tampa Bay defense isn’t expected to be great, so Bain will have to put up a decent sack total to win this award.

David Bailey (+500)

Bailey has earned rave reviews from the assembled media at New York Jets training camp, an encouraging sign for the No. 2 overall pick.

In his lone season at Texas Tech, Bailey racked up 14.5 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss, and forced three fumbles, anchoring a Red Raiders defense that allowed the third-fewest points in the country (10.9 per game).

He joins a Jets defense that struggled to make impact plays last season, ranking 31st in sacks (26) and 32nd in takeaways (4).

If Bailey puts up strong numbers and helps Aaron Glenn’s unit take a step forward, he could be in line to win this award. However, I have my concerns about the coach and the team holding his candidacy back.

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Sleeper Pick

Jacob Rodriguez (+1500)

A teammate of Bailey’s at Texas Tech, Jacob Rodriguez is my favorite sleeper pick to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Last season, the do-it-all linebacker racked up 128 total tackles, seven forced fumbles, and four interceptions, en route to being named a unanimous All-American and winning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, the Butkus Award (best linebacker), and the Chuck Bednarik Award (best defensive player).

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Rodriguez would be an outlier to win NFL DROY honors by virtue of his draft position (Round 2, 43rd overall), but he should get plenty of opportunities to rack up stats as a starting linebacker for the Miami Dolphins, who are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league.

If he’s anywhere near as productive in the pros as he was in college, Rodriguez will have a chance of overcoming these 15-1 odds.

Previous AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award Winners

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Winners by position

• Linebacker (28)
• Defensive end (13)
• Cornerback (9)
• Defensive tackle (7)
• Safety (2)