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NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds & Predictions

Frank AmmiranteSenior Sports Writer
@FAmmiranteTFJ
Last Updated: Sep 30, 2025

One of the most difficult awards to bet on is the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year.

That is because this award usually goes to the most outstanding non-quarterback, whereas the NFL MVP has historically been a quarterback-centric award.

However, we’ve recently seen some quarterbacks take home this award in addition to MVP honors (Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Matt Ryan in 2016, Cam Newton in 2015, etc.). It’s a tough award to forecast, but this is one that a skill position player can actually win.

To help guide you in our NFL predictions series, here are our Offensive Player of the Year predictions and betting tips.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Odds

All NFL odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Sep. 30, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET.

  • Puka Nacua (+300)
  • Jonathan Taylor (+450)
  • Bijan Robinson (+500)
  • Christian McCaffrey (+600)
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1500)
  • James Cook (+1500)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs (+1600)
  • Derrick Henry (+2500)
  • Saquon Barkley (+2500)
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+2800)

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Prediction

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (+500)

Wager: 1 Unit

Bijan Robinson is the focal point of the Falcons offense. The third-year back is off to a terrific start this season, rushing for 314 yards (4.9 YPC) and 1 touchdown, while adding 270 receiving yards and another score.

This is a dynamic bellcow who can make an impact on the ground and through the air. It’s also a player who is the MVP on his offense, so if he keeps up this production, we’re looking at a viable candidate with great value at +500 odds.

While Puka Nacua is off to a spectacular start, we’ve seen him deal with injuries throughout his career. The same goes for Jonathan Taylor, but there’s risk that the Colts offense eventually starts to crash back to Earth.

With that in mind, I’ll take a shot on Bijan to take home this award. It’s the ideal combination of usage, talent, and value.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Sleeper

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions (+1600)

Wager: 1 Unit

My pick for Offensive Player of the Year sleeper is Jahmyr Gibbs, who is off to a bit of a slow start compared to the other elite contributors, rushing for 271 yards (4.7 YPC) and four touchdowns with 79 receiving yards.

But this is one of the most explosive backs in the NFL, tied to an offense that is still elite without Ben Johnson calling plays.

Don’t be surprised if we see some huge weeks out of Gibbs as the season progresses, putting him in play for this award.

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award History

List of Associated Press NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Winners

Edit
YearPlayerPositionTeam
1972Larry BrownRBWashington Redskins
1973O. J. SimpsonRBBuffalo Bills
1974Ken StablerQBOakland Raiders
1975Fran TarkentonQBMinnesota Vikings
1976Bert JonesQBBaltimore Colts
1977Walter PaytonRBChicago Bears
1978Earl CampbellRBHouston Oilers
1979Earl CampbellRBHouston Oilers
1980Earl CampbellRBHouston Oilers
1981Ken AndersonQBCincinnati Bengals
1982Dan FoutsQBSan Diego Chargers
1983Joe TheismannQBWashington Redskins
1984Dan MarinoQBMiami Dolphins
1985Marcus AllenRBLos Angeles Raiders
1986Eric DickersonRBLos Angeles Rams
1987Jerry RiceWRSan Francisco 49ers
1988Roger CraigRBSan Francisco 49ers
1989Joe MontanaQBSan Francisco 49ers
1990Warren MoonQBHouston Oilers
1991Thurman ThomasRBBuffalo Bills
1992Steve YoungQBSan Francisco 49ers
1993Jerry RiceWRSan Francisco 49ers
1994Barry SandersRBDetroit Lions
1995Brett FavreQBGreen Bay Packers
1996Terrell DavisRBDenver Broncos
1997Barry SandersRBDetroit Lions
1998Terrell DavisRBDenver Broncos
1999Marshall FaulkRBSt. Louis Rams
2000Marshall FaulkRBSt. Louis Rams
2001Marshall FaulkRBSt. Louis Rams
2002Priest HolmesRBKansas City Chiefs
2003Jamal LewisRBBaltimore Ravens
2004Peyton ManningQBIndianapolis Colts
2005Shaun AlexanderRBSeattle Seahawks
2006LaDainian TomlinsonRBSan Diego Chargers
2007Tom BradyQBNew England Patriots
2008Drew BreesQBNew Orleans Saints
2009Chris JohnsonRBTennessee Titans
2010Tom BradyQBNew England Patriots
2011Drew BreesQBNew Orleans Saints
2012Adrian PetersonRBMinnesota Vikings
2013Peyton ManningQBDenver Broncos
2014DeMarco MurrayRBDallas Cowboys
2015Cam NewtonQBCarolina Panthers
2016Matt RyanQBAtlanta Falcons
2017Todd GurleyRBLos Angeles Rams
2018Patrick MahomesQBKansas City Chiefs
2019Michael ThomasWRNew Orleans Saints
2020Derrick HenryRBTennessee Titans
2021Cooper KuppWRLos Angeles Rams
2022Justin JeffersonWRMinnesota Vikings
2023Christian McCaffreyRBSan Francisco 49ers
2024Saquon BarkleyRBPhiladelphia Eagles

Winners by position

  • Running back (28)
  • Quarterback (20)
  • Wide receiver (5)
  • Tight end (0)

Who votes for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year?

Three organizations give out NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards: the Associated Press, Pro Football Writers of America, and The Sporting News. The Associated Press’s award for the most outstanding offensive player is the award given out at the official NFL Honors ceremony. Sportswriters are selected by the AP to vote each year.

Who has won multiple NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards?

Eight players have won NFL OPOY more than once. Earl Campbell (1978, 1979, 1980) and Marshall Faulk (1999, 2000, 2001) both won three times and in consecutive years. Jerry Rice (1987, 1993), Barry Sanders (1994, 1997), Terrell Davis (1996, 1998), Tom Brady (2007, 2010), Drew Brees (2008, 2011), and Peyton Manning (2004, 2013) each won the award twice.

Author

Frank Ammirante

Frank Ammirante is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously, he wrote for 4for4 Football and RotoBaller. Frank is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writer's Association while maintaining an active presence within the community. He has competed in industry contests like the Scott Fish Bowl, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and more. Frank will be making his debut in Tout Wars this year. He's got a diverse sporting background, but specializes in football and baseball.

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