One of the most difficult awards to bet on is the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year.
That is because this award usually goes to the most outstanding statistically-inclined non-quarterback, whereas the NFL MVP has historically been a quarterback-centric award.
However, we’ve recently seen some quarterbacks take home this award in addition to MVP honors (Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Matt Ryan in 2016, Cam Newton in 2015, etc.). It’s a tough award to forecast, but this is one that a skill position player can actually win.
To help guide you in our NFL predictions series, here are our Offensive Player of the Year predictions and betting tips.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Odds
All NFL odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, Feb 8, 2024, at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Christian McCaffrey (-300)
- Tyreek Hill (+175)
- CeeDee Lamb (+1500)
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Prediction
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (-300)
Wager: 1 Unit
About 14 or 15 weeks of the way through the season, this award really became a three-man race, given CeeDee Lamb’s torrid finish to the season and Tyreek Hill’s falling out of the MVP race once Miami was able to win 30-0 without him. However, McCaffrey has a stranglehold on this award this year, and for good reason.
McCaffrey put up one of the better years that we’ve seen out of the running back position, with 1,459 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground and 564 yards with seven touchdowns through the air. That’s over 2,000 total yards, folks, with 21 total touchdowns.
McCaffrey is also an NFL MVP finalist in a year where nobody really ever separated themselves from the pack, but he is unlikely to win that award, so it’s a natural progression for him to take home the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year award.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award History
List of Associated Press NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Winners
| Year | Player | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1972 | Larry Brown | RB | Washington Redskins |
| 1973 | O. J. Simpson | RB | Buffalo Bills |
| 1974 | Ken Stabler | QB | Oakland Raiders |
| 1975 | Fran Tarkenton | QB | Minnesota Vikings |
| 1976 | Bert Jones | QB | Baltimore Colts |
| 1977 | Walter Payton | RB | Chicago Bears |
| 1978 | Earl Campbell | RB | Houston Oilers |
| 1979 | Earl Campbell | RB | Houston Oilers |
| 1980 | Earl Campbell | RB | Houston Oilers |
| 1981 | Ken Anderson | QB | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 1982 | Dan Fouts | QB | San Diego Chargers |
| 1983 | Joe Theismann | QB | Washington Redskins |
| 1984 | Dan Marino | QB | Miami Dolphins |
| 1985 | Marcus Allen | RB | Los Angeles Raiders |
| 1986 | Eric Dickerson | RB | Los Angeles Rams |
| 1987 | Jerry Rice | WR | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1988 | Roger Craig | RB | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1989 | Joe Montana | QB | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1990 | Warren Moon | QB | Houston Oilers |
| 1991 | Thurman Thomas | RB | Buffalo Bills |
| 1992 | Steve Young | QB | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1993 | Jerry Rice | WR | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1994 | Barry Sanders | RB | Detroit Lions |
| 1995 | Brett Favre | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 1996 | Terrell Davis | RB | Denver Broncos |
| 1997 | Barry Sanders | RB | Detroit Lions |
| 1998 | Terrell Davis | RB | Denver Broncos |
| 1999 | Marshall Faulk | RB | St. Louis Rams |
| 2000 | Marshall Faulk | RB | St. Louis Rams |
| 2001 | Marshall Faulk | RB | St. Louis Rams |
| 2002 | Priest Holmes | RB | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2003 | Jamal Lewis | RB | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | QB | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander | RB | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | RB | San Diego Chargers |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2008 | Drew Brees | QB | New Orleans Saints |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson | RB | Tennessee Titans |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2011 | Drew Brees | QB | New Orleans Saints |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | QB | Denver Broncos |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray | RB | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | QB | Carolina Panthers |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | QB | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley | RB | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas | WR | New Orleans Saints |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry | RB | Tennessee Titans |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp | WR | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson | WR | Minnesota Vikings |
Winners by position
- Running back (26)
- Quarterback (20)
- Wide receiver (5)
- Tight end (0)
Who votes for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year?
Three organizations give out NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards: the Associated Press, Pro Football Writers of America, and The Sporting News. The Associated Press’s award for the most outstanding offensive player is the award given out at the official NFL Honors ceremony. Sportswriters are selected by the AP to vote each year.
Who has won multiple NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards?
Eight players have won NFL OPOY more than once. Earl Campbell (1978, 1979, 1980) and Marshall Faulk (1999, 2000, 2001) both won three times and in consecutive years. Jerry Rice (1987, 1993), Barry Sanders (1994, 1997), Terrell Davis (1996, 1998), Tom Brady (2007, 2010), Drew Brees (2008, 2011), and Peyton Manning (2004, 2013) each won the award twice.
