One of the most difficult awards to bet on is the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year.
That is because this award usually goes to the most outstanding non-quarterback, whereas the NFL MVP has historically been a quarterback-centric award.
However, we’ve recently seen some quarterbacks take home this award in addition to MVP honors (Patrick Mahomes in 2018, Matt Ryan in 2016, Cam Newton in 2015, etc.). It’s a tough award to forecast, but this is one that a skill position player can actually win.
To help guide you in our NFL predictions series, here are our Offensive Player of the Year predictions and betting tips.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Odds
All NFL odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Sep. 30, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET.
- Puka Nacua (+300)
- Jonathan Taylor (+450)
- Bijan Robinson (+500)
- Christian McCaffrey (+600)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1500)
- James Cook (+1500)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (+1600)
- Derrick Henry (+2500)
- Saquon Barkley (+2500)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+2800)
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Prediction
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (+500)
Wager: 1 Unit
Bijan Robinson is the focal point of the Falcons offense. The third-year back is off to a terrific start this season, rushing for 314 yards (4.9 YPC) and 1 touchdown, while adding 270 receiving yards and another score.
This is a dynamic bellcow who can make an impact on the ground and through the air. It’s also a player who is the MVP on his offense, so if he keeps up this production, we’re looking at a viable candidate with great value at +500 odds.
While Puka Nacua is off to a spectacular start, we’ve seen him deal with injuries throughout his career. The same goes for Jonathan Taylor, but there’s risk that the Colts offense eventually starts to crash back to Earth.
With that in mind, I’ll take a shot on Bijan to take home this award. It’s the ideal combination of usage, talent, and value.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Sleeper
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions (+1600)
Wager: 1 Unit
My pick for Offensive Player of the Year sleeper is Jahmyr Gibbs, who is off to a bit of a slow start compared to the other elite contributors, rushing for 271 yards (4.7 YPC) and four touchdowns with 79 receiving yards.
But this is one of the most explosive backs in the NFL, tied to an offense that is still elite without Ben Johnson calling plays.
Don’t be surprised if we see some huge weeks out of Gibbs as the season progresses, putting him in play for this award.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award History
List of Associated Press NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award Winners
| Year | Player | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1972 | Larry Brown | RB | Washington Redskins |
| 1973 | O. J. Simpson | RB | Buffalo Bills |
| 1974 | Ken Stabler | QB | Oakland Raiders |
| 1975 | Fran Tarkenton | QB | Minnesota Vikings |
| 1976 | Bert Jones | QB | Baltimore Colts |
| 1977 | Walter Payton | RB | Chicago Bears |
| 1978 | Earl Campbell | RB | Houston Oilers |
| 1979 | Earl Campbell | RB | Houston Oilers |
| 1980 | Earl Campbell | RB | Houston Oilers |
| 1981 | Ken Anderson | QB | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 1982 | Dan Fouts | QB | San Diego Chargers |
| 1983 | Joe Theismann | QB | Washington Redskins |
| 1984 | Dan Marino | QB | Miami Dolphins |
| 1985 | Marcus Allen | RB | Los Angeles Raiders |
| 1986 | Eric Dickerson | RB | Los Angeles Rams |
| 1987 | Jerry Rice | WR | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1988 | Roger Craig | RB | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1989 | Joe Montana | QB | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1990 | Warren Moon | QB | Houston Oilers |
| 1991 | Thurman Thomas | RB | Buffalo Bills |
| 1992 | Steve Young | QB | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1993 | Jerry Rice | WR | San Francisco 49ers |
| 1994 | Barry Sanders | RB | Detroit Lions |
| 1995 | Brett Favre | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 1996 | Terrell Davis | RB | Denver Broncos |
| 1997 | Barry Sanders | RB | Detroit Lions |
| 1998 | Terrell Davis | RB | Denver Broncos |
| 1999 | Marshall Faulk | RB | St. Louis Rams |
| 2000 | Marshall Faulk | RB | St. Louis Rams |
| 2001 | Marshall Faulk | RB | St. Louis Rams |
| 2002 | Priest Holmes | RB | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2003 | Jamal Lewis | RB | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | QB | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander | RB | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | RB | San Diego Chargers |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2008 | Drew Brees | QB | New Orleans Saints |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson | RB | Tennessee Titans |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2011 | Drew Brees | QB | New Orleans Saints |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | QB | Denver Broncos |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray | RB | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | QB | Carolina Panthers |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | QB | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley | RB | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas | WR | New Orleans Saints |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry | RB | Tennessee Titans |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp | WR | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson | WR | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2023 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | Saquon Barkley | RB | Philadelphia Eagles |
Winners by position
- Running back (28)
- Quarterback (20)
- Wide receiver (5)
- Tight end (0)
Who votes for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year?
Three organizations give out NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards: the Associated Press, Pro Football Writers of America, and The Sporting News. The Associated Press’s award for the most outstanding offensive player is the award given out at the official NFL Honors ceremony. Sportswriters are selected by the AP to vote each year.
Who has won multiple NFL Offensive Player of the Year awards?
Eight players have won NFL OPOY more than once. Earl Campbell (1978, 1979, 1980) and Marshall Faulk (1999, 2000, 2001) both won three times and in consecutive years. Jerry Rice (1987, 1993), Barry Sanders (1994, 1997), Terrell Davis (1996, 1998), Tom Brady (2007, 2010), Drew Brees (2008, 2011), and Peyton Manning (2004, 2013) each won the award twice.
