In 2021, the LA Rams and San Francisco 49ers were pre-season favorites to win the NFC West. Not only did the Rams win the division, but they also won the Super Bowl.
For the 2022 season, the Rams and 49ers are pre-season division favorites again. The question is, can the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals challenge the Rams and 49ers this upcoming season.
The Seahawks finished 7-10 last year and traded away franchise quarterback Russell Wilson. Even though Seattle is rebuilding, Arizona could contend in the upcoming season.
Please read below to find out the result of my simulations of the 2022 season and to look at each team’s schedule with win probabilities and projected spreads for each game.
Note: These NFC West futures bet odds are courtesy of Betway Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, July 6, at 12 p.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds might shift as we get closer to the 2022 NFL season.
NFC West Winner Betting Odds
- Los Angeles Rams (+125)
- San Francisco 49ers (+160)
- Arizona Cardinals (+400)
- Seattle Seahawks (+1600)
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Before you make your next NFC West futures bet, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is among the industry’s best, offering tons of promotions. Get up to $1,500 in first bet insurance when you use our promo code .
Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this NFC West division winner analysis.
NFC West Division Simulation
|NFC West||Projected Wins||Projected Losses||Division Winner %||Division Winner Breakeven Odds|
|Los Angeles Rams||11.3||5.7||51.4%||-106|
|San Francisco 49ers||7.7||9.3||18.9%||429|
49ers Schedule & Win Probabilities
|Week||Opponent||49ers Projected Spread||49ers Projected Win %|
|11||@ Cardinals (Mexico City)||+6||29.4%|
For most NFL teams, my win projections tend to agree with sportsbooks’ win totals. An exception is the San Francisco 49ers, who I project to have a 7.7-9.3 record, even though they have a win total of 10 at DraftKings.
Despite the 49ers finishing with a 10-7 record last season, they should regress in 2022. Part of San Francisco’s success last year was going 6-3 on the road, even when they went 4-4 at home. If the 49ers go .500 at home this season, they are likely to have a losing record.
Based on San Francisco’s schedule, the Niners should go 4-5 at home. They host the Rams, Chiefs, and Buccaneers in games where they should be close to six-point underdogs. Additionally, they are only narrowly favored at home against the Saints, Dolphins, and Commanders.
On the road, the 49ers have challenging games against the Broncos, Rams, Cardinals, and Raiders. For the 49ers to have a winning record this upcoming season, they must exceed expectations.
Cardinals Schedule & Win Probabilities
|Week||Opponent||Cardinals Projected Spread||Cardinals Projected Win %|
|11||49ers (Mexico City)||-6||70.7%|
Last year, the Arizona Cardinals were the biggest longshot to win the NFC West, and they almost pulled it off. With an 11-6 record, the Cardinals nearly won the division.
The Super Bowl Champion Rams crushed the Cardinals in the playoffs. In head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s fourth year, Arizona should improve.
Not only do the Cardinals benefit from Kingsbury being more experienced, but they also benefit from quarterback Kyler Murray entering his fourth NFL season.
In 2021, Murray had 3,787 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions. Murray ran for 423 yards on the ground and added five rushing touchdowns. I expect Murray to have another big year in 2022, which is why the Cardinals are worth a look.
Rams Schedule & Win Probabilities
|Week||Opponent||Rams Projected Spread||Rams Projected Win %|
The Rams won the NFC West and Super Bowl last year, so it shouldn’t be surprising that they are favored to win the division again. Additionally, the Rams are a top Super Bowl contender for the upcoming season.
Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles wins the division in 51.4% of my simulations. When looking at the Rams’ upcoming schedule, it is easy to see why.
Outside of games against the Bills, Chargers, Chiefs, and Packers, the Rams have an easy schedule outside their division. Against the Falcons and Panthers, they are two-touchdown favorites. And they should be favored as well against the Cowboys, Saints, and Raiders.
It will be hard for the Rams to repeat as Super Bowl champions, but they have nearly a 50/50 chance of winning the division.
Seahawks Schedule & Win Probabilities
|Week||Opponent||Seahawks Projected Spread||Seahawks Projected Win %|
The Seahawks could be the only NFC West team to finish with a losing record this season. Not only did they finish with a losing record last year, but they traded away star quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos.
With Geno Smith or Drew Lock set to start under center for the Seahawks this upcoming season, they might end up with the worst record in the NFL.
There are only three games this season where Seattle should be favored. Those are three home contests against the Jets, Panthers, and Falcons. Even against the lowly Detroit Lions, the Seahawks are expected to be underdogs.
Don’t waste your time betting on Seattle this season.
NFC West Winner Prediction
Rams (+130) at BetMGM
Cardinals (+400) at BetWay
The Rams are the best bet to win the NFC West, but as a 4-1 dog, the Cardinals are also a good bet. Most importantly, betting on the Rams and Cardinals is the best way to bet against the Seahawks and 49ers.
Last year, the Rams and Cardinals were neck-and-neck in the division, and I expect the same result this season. LA returns most of its Super Bowl roster, and the Cardinals will only improve.
Based on my edge on both teams, I would bet 1.5 units on the Rams and .75 units on the Cardinals.