The NFC South was the weakest division in the NFL last season. With Tom Brady’s retirement, there’s a good chance that it’s even worse this year.
The New Orleans Saints are currently the favorites after signing quarterback Derek Carr, but we could see some odds movement after free agency and the NFL Draft, especially following the Carolina Panthers’ blockbuster deal for the No. 1 overall pick.
Let’s dig into the latest NFC South winner odds to make a prediction and pick out our favorite sleeper bet.
NFC South Winner Betting Odds 2023
Note: These NFC South betting odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Monday, March 13, at noon. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds may shift as we get closer to the 2023 NFL season.
- New Orleans Saints (+140)
- Carolina Panthers (+220)
- Atlanta Falcons (+380)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+500)
Keep track of pro football futures this offseason with our NFL futures odds comparison tool:
As expected, the Saints come in as favorites because Carr gives them a stable, veteran presence at quarterback. We could see wideout Michael Thomas back in the picture, giving the team a dynamic duo with second-year stud Chris Olave.
The Panthers will select either C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young with the newly acquired first-overall pick. While they were forced to move D.J. Moore in this trade, it will be interesting to see what pass-catchers they add for their new franchise quarterback.
- For more on the draft, check out Anthony Cervino’s latest 2023 NFL Mock Draft.
The Falcons could be an improved team with a full season of Desmond Ridder at quarterback. We also can’t rule out the team targeting the position in the draft or free agency. It will be interesting to see the route they take this offseason.
The Bucs are a bit of an intriguing team because they still have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but there’s a major question mark at quarterback following Brady’s retirement. We could see Tampa Bay go with a cheaper veteran like Baker Mayfield to compete with Kyle Trask.
NFC South Winner Best Bet
New Orleans Saints (+140) | DraftKings Sportsbook
While Carr is more of a mid-tier passer, he’s definitely an upgrade over Andy Dalton. That puts New Orleans in the driver’s seat in the NFC South.
The Saints have some nice pieces on offense with Olave, Thomas, and Alvin Kamara (if he avoids a long-term suspension for battery charges). The defense should also remain stout with Dennis Allen calling the shots. New Orleans ranked sixth in Pass DVOA last season, according to Football Outsiders.
With a more consistent offense, we could see the defense improve as well, since it will be put in more favorable situations.
At +140 odds, we’re getting good enough value to recommend the favorites in the NFC South. It’s unlikely that all three of their division rivals upgrade at quarterback during this offseason, so the worst-case scenario is likely that you see the Saints and Panthers get closer in the odds.
NFC South Winner Sleeper Pick
Carolina Panthers (+220) | DraftKings Sportsbook
New head coach Frank Reich has worked well with quarterbacks throughout his career, like Carson Wentz in Philadelphia. We could see Reich have a major impact on the incoming rookie quarterback, which could help Carolina contend for the NFC South.
The Panthers will need to add a wideout in free agency to replace Moore, since they don’t have much premium draft capital to address the position. Perhaps they can make a play for Jakobi Meyers, who is the top wide receiver on the market this year.
- Keep track of the latest signings with our NFL Free Agency Tracker
The defense has some key pieces, like Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn. This is likely the best price that you’ll get on Carolina since we could see them be active in free agency, so it’s a good time to take them as a sleeper.
NFC South Winner By Year
| Year | NFC South Winner | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Carolina Panthers | 12-4 |
| 2014 | Carolina Panthers | 7-8-1 |
| 2015 | Carolina Panthers | 15-1 |
| 2016 | Atlanta Falcons | 11-5 |
| 2017 | New Orleans Saints | 11-5 |
| 2018 | New Orleans Saints | 13-3 |
| 2019 | New Orleans Saints | 13-3 |
| 2020 | New Orleans Saints | 12-4 |
| 2021 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13-4 |
| 2022 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 |
