NFC South Division Winner Odds 2022 | NFL Division Win Futures & Betting Picks

Posted: Jun 24, 2022Last updated: Jun 24, 2022

Any conversation about the NFC South must revolve around the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They won the Super Bowl two seasons ago and dominated the division in 2021 with a 13-4 record.

Entering last season, the Bucs were -200 favorites to win the division. This year, Tampa is an even bigger favorite.

Rounding out the division are the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers. The Saints have a great defense and a mediocre offense, while the Falcons and Panthers are rebuilding.

Read below, to find out the result of my simulations and to look at each team’s schedule with win probabilities and projected spreads for each game.

Note: These NFC South futures bet odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and are current as of Friday, June 23 at 10 a.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds might shift as we get closer to the 2022 NFL season.

NFC South Winner Betting Odds

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-300)
  • New Orleans Saints (+375)
  • Carolina Panthers (+1200)
  • Atlanta Falcons (+1600)

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NFC South Division Simulation

NFC SouthProjected WinsProjected LossesDivision Winner %Division Winner Breakeven Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers12.64.481.5%-441
New Orleans Saints8.68.413.6%635
Carolina Panthers5.611.42.8%3471
Atlanta Falcons4.212.81.4%7043

Buccaneers Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1@ CowboysPICK50.0%
2@ Saints-5.569.0%
3Packers-2.554.5%
4Chiefs-2.554.5%
5Falcons-1799.0%
6@ Steelers-9.581.1%
7@ Panthers-10.586.0%
8Ravens-670.7%
9Rams-359.4%
10Seahawks (in Munich)-1595.6%
12@ Browns-5.569.0%
13Saints-9.581.1%
14@ 49ers-670.7%
15Bengals-7.578.1%
16@ Cardinals-253.5%
17Panthers-14.594.9%
18@ Falcons-1389.3%

I project Tampa Bay’s Week 1 game on the road against the Cowboys as a toss-up. The oddsmakers disagree, as they have installed the Buccaneers 2.5-point favorites.

Even though the betting markets are more bullish on the Bucs for Week 1 than I am, I still have the Bucs favored in their final 16 games. This includes matchups against the Packers, Chiefs, Rams, and Cardinals.

Tampa’s non-divisional schedule is lacking in cupcakes, but if QB Tom Brady stays healthy, then they will win the division again.

Falcons Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1Saints+5.531.1%
2@ Rams+161.9%
3@ Seahawks+434.2%
4Browns+629.4%
5@ Buccaneers+171.0%
649ers+531.9%
7@ Bengals+1211.6%
8Panthers+0.550.0%
9Chargers+1112.9%
10@ Panthers+4.532.7%
11Bears-2.554.5%
12@ Commanders+8.519.8%
13Steelers+1.547.5%
15@ Saints+9.518.9%
16@ Ravens+1310.7%
17Cardinals+919.3%
18Buccaneers+1310.7%

The Falcons finished with a 7-10 record last season, and that was with quarterback Matt Ryan. If a team is likely to lose, there is no reason to keep a 36-year-old quarterback, so Atlanta started their rebuild by trading Ryan to Indianapolis.

In 2022, the Falcons are likely to use a combination of Marcus Mariota and rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback. Mariota has not been a starter since 2019, and last year Ridder was playing against Tulane and East Carolina at the University of Cincinnati.

Without even looking at my numbers, my gut tells me that the Falcons may not fly off the ground this season. My projections back up that thought as I have the Falcons favored only once this season, in a Week 11 home matchup against the Bears.

All in all, Atlanta should win only four or five games this season.

Panthers Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1Browns+3.535.7%
2@ Giants+434.2%
3Saints+340.6%
4Cardinals+6.527.7%
549ers+2.545.5%
6@ Rams+13.510.0%
7Buccaneers+10.514.0%
8@ Falcons-0.550.0%
9@ Bengals+9.518.9%
10Falcons-4.567.3%
11@ Ravens+10.514.0%
12Broncos+6.527.7%
14@ Seahawks+1.547.5%
15Steelers-151.3%
16Lions-0.550.0%
17@ Buccaneers+14.55.1%
18@ Saints+724.8%

Outside of the Falcons, the worst team in the NFC South is the Panthers. I have them favored by a point or more in only two games this season, and two other matchups are and toss-ups. For Carolina to win the division in 2022, they need a lot of luck.

At quarterback, the Panthers’ options are Sam Darnold and rookie Matt Corral. Darnold has been lackluster at best in his short career, and Corral is not ready for the NFL just yet. Last season, Darnold ranked 40th in QBR among qualifiers and continues to be turnover prone.

Like the Falcons, the Panthers are likely to have a challenging season.

Saints Schedule & Win Probabilities

WeekOpponentProjected SpreadProjected Win %
1@ Falcons-5.569.0%
2Buccaneers+5.531.1%
3@ Panthers-359.4%
4Vikings (in London)+0.550.0%
5Seahawks-7.578.1%
6BengalsPICK50.0%
7@ Cardinals+5.531.1%
8Raiders+0.550.0%
9Ravens+1.547.5%
10@ Steelers-253.5%
11Rams+4.532.7%
12@ 49ers+1.547.5%
13@ Buccaneers+9.518.9%
15Falcons-9.581.1%
16@ Browns+246.5%
17@ Eagles+340.6%
18Panthers-775.2%

Given the status of the Falcons and Panthers, there is only one NFC South team that can compete with the Buccaneers this season. That would be the New Orleans Saints. They may play in the Big Easy, but overtaking the Bucs juggernaut will be anything but easy.

Last year, the Saints came marching in with a 9-8 record. My numbers project New Orleans to finish close to .500 once again this season. I would describe them as lukewarm, as they aren’t red hot but they aren’t cold either.

Disregarding my numbers, I have a hard time seeing the Saints competing with the Bucs this year as former head coach Sean Payton retired during the offseason. Additionally, quarterback Jameis Winston doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Most importantly, I only have New Orleans favored in 6 of their 17 games this season. As a result, I am bearish on the Saints.

NFC South Winner Prediction

Buccaneers (-286) at BetRivers

The Buccaneers won the NFC South in 81.5% of my 25,000 simulations of the NFL season. With a juicy price at BetRivers, logically the Buccaneers are the best bet to win the division.

I am going to look into other ways to bet on Tampa so I don’t tie up my money for months for a small potential return. But if you are willing to bet $28.60 to win $10, then betting on the Buccaneers winning the NFC South is one of the best pre-season bets you can make this year.

Football-wise, the best reason to bet on Tampa is that there is no one else in the division that can hold a candle to them. Atlanta and Carolina are rebuilding, and New Orleans is a .500-level team at best. My best advice is to either take the juice with the Bucs or avoid betting on this division before the season starts.

Author

Kevin Davis

Kevin Davis is a Betting Analyst at The Game Day residing in Hoboken, NJ. Previously a Bronx resident, Kevin got his start betting on sports at his local Bronx barbershop. When sports betting was legalized across the river in Jersey, Kevin was there on the ground floor making regular trips to the Hoboken PATH station or for soup dumplings in Fort Lee. Previously, Kevin has written for The Action Network, and Vegas Insider.

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