The NFL Coach of the Year award doesn’t always go to the league’s most accomplished coach. More often, it rewards someone who has exceeded expectations and led his team to a significant turnaround.
Recent winners have typically overseen dramatic improvements, often guiding their teams to at least five more victories than the previous season. That’s why coaches leading surprising contenders tend to attract the most attention from voters.
Last year, New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel won the award for the second time in his career after orchestrating a remarkable 10-win improvement. The Patriots went from 4-13 to 14-3, completing one of the NFL’s most impressive single-season turnarounds.
With the 2026 season approaching its halfway point, several coaches have already emerged as serious contenders. As of November 4, I’ll break down the latest NFL Coach of the Year odds, evaluate the leading candidates, and identify my favorite bets to win the award.
NFL Coach of the Year Award Odds 2026
All football odds used for these NFL Coach of the Year predictions are current as of Thursday, Nov. 12, and are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- John Harbaugh (+125)
- Ben Johnson (+380)
- Kyle Shanahan (+550)
- Todd Monken (+1000)
- Liam Coen (+1400)
- Kevin O’Connell (+2000)
- Joe Brady (+2000)
All other coaches have odds of +3000 or longer to win the award.
Who Will Win NFL Coach of the Year?
Jesse Minter (+7500)
Jesse Minter is an intriguing buy-low candidate for NFL Coach of the Year after the Baltimore Ravens lost three consecutive games to fall from 4-1 to 4-5. It’s been a disappointing stretch for a team that entered the season with high expectations, but I wouldn’t write off Baltimore just yet.
The biggest issue has been the quarterback situation, with Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley both landing on injured reserve. Baltimore recently traded for veteran Jacoby Brissett, who could provide some stability until Jackson is healthy enough to return.
Minter was hired largely because of his defensive expertise, and the Ravens have enough talent on that side of the ball to remain competitive. If Brissett can keep Baltimore afloat over the next few weeks, there’s still an opportunity for the Ravens to turn their season around once Jackson returns.
What makes Minter appealing is the potential comeback narrative. If Baltimore rebounds from its three-game losing streak and makes the playoffs despite its quarterback injuries, voters could reward Minter for keeping the team together through adversity.
At +7500, I think the upside outweighs the risk. It’s a longshot, but I’m willing to take a chance on Minter as my NFL pick of the day, especially with the Ravens still capable of making a second-half playoff push.
NFL Coach of the Year Contenders
John Harbaugh (+125)
John Harbaugh is the clear favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year, and it’s hard to argue with what he’s accomplished in his first season with the New York Giants. After finishing 4-13 in 2025, the Giants have already matched last year’s win total, entering Week 9 at 4-2-1 and sitting atop the NFC East.
What’s particularly impressive is that Harbaugh has turned things around despite losing starting quarterback Jaxson Dart to a season-ending injury in Week 2. The Giants have remained competitive with J.J. McCarthy under center, winning three of their last five games before entering their Week 8 bye.
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New York has also made significant improvements defensively, allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game. The Giants have won two of their last three games, including a 27-21 overtime victory over Houston, putting themselves in a position to compete for their first NFC East title since 2011.
Harbaugh’s case is already compelling, but there’s still plenty of football left. The Giants face a difficult second-half schedule, and their quarterback situation could eventually catch up with them. However, if New York makes the playoffs after winning just four games last season, Harbaugh will be extremely difficult to beat.
At +225, the odds aren’t particularly appealing, but Harbaugh deserves to be the favorite. He’s already delivered the kind of turnaround voters typically reward, and a playoff appearance would only strengthen his case.
NFL Coach of the Year Sleeper Pick
Kellen Moore (+5500)
Kellen Moore is an interesting longshot for NFL Coach of the Year, especially with the NFC South still wide open. The New Orleans Saints have been inconsistent this season, but there’s still an opportunity for them to make a second-half push in a division that doesn’t have a clear-cut favorite.
One reason for optimism is that New Orleans is starting to get healthier. Injuries have made life difficult for Moore throughout the season, but getting key players back could help the Saints find more consistency on both sides of the ball.
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Quarterback Tyler Shough will be particularly important down the stretch. He showed promise as a rookie in 2025, and another step forward in his development could give New Orleans the offensive production it needs to compete for the division title.
At +5500, Moore is worth considering as a longshot. The Saints don’t necessarily need to become one of the NFL’s best teams for him to enter the conversation. If New Orleans gets hot, wins the NFC South, and returns to the playoffs, Moore could receive serious consideration for turning around a team that finished 6-11 last season.
Previous AP NFL Coach of the Year Winners
2025: Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots
2024: Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings
2023: Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
2022: Brian Daboll, New York Giants
2021: Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans
2020: Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
2019: John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
2018: Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears
2017: Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams
2016: Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys
2015: Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers
2014: Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals
2013: Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers
2012: Bruce Arians, Indianapolis Colts
2011: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers
2010: Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
2009: Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals
2008: Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons
2007: Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
2006: Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
2005: Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears
2004: Marty Schottenheimer, San Diego Chargers
2003: Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
2002: Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles
2001: Dick Jauron, Chicago Bears
2000: Jim Haslett, New Orleans Saints
1999: Dick Vermeil, St. Louis Rams
1998: Dan Reeves, Atlanta Falcons
1997: Jim Fassel, New York Giants
1996: Dom Capers, Carolina Panthers
1995: Ray Rhodes, Philadelphia Eagles
1994: Bill Parcells, New England Patriots
1993: Dan Reeves, New York Giants
1992: Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh Steelers
1991: Wayne Fontes, Detroit Lions
1990: Jimmy Johnson, Dallas Cowboys
1989: Lindy Infante, Green Bay Packers
1988: Mike Ditka, Chicago Bears
1987: Jim Mora, New Orleans Saints
1986: Bill Parcells, New York Giants
1985: Mike Ditka, Chicago Bears
1984: Chuck Knox, Seattle Seahawks
1983: Joe Gibbs, Washington Redskins
1982: Joe Gibbs, Washington Redskins
1981: Bill Walsh, San Francisco 49ers
1980: Chuck Knox, Buffalo Bills
1979: Jack Pardee, Washington Redskins
1978: Jack Patera, Seattle Seahawks
1977: Red Miller, Denver Broncos
1976: Forrest Gregg, Cleveland Browns
1975: Ted Marchibroda, Baltimore Colts
1974: Don Coryell, St. Louis Cardinals
1973: Chuck Knox, Los Angeles Rams
1972: Don Shula, Miami Dolphins
1971: George Allen, Washington Redskins
1970: Paul Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
1969: Bud Grant, Minnesota Vikings
1968: Don Shula, Baltimore Colts
1967: George Allen, Los Angeles Rams & Don Shula, Baltimore Colts
1966: Tom Landry, Dallas Cowboys
1965: George Halas, Chicago Bears
1964: Don Shula, Baltimore Colts
1963: George Halas, Chicago Bears
1962: Allie Sherman, New York Giants
1961: Allie Sherman, New York Giants
1960: Buck Shaw, Philadelphia Eagles
1959: Vince Lombardi, Green Bay Packers
1958: Weeb Ewbank, Baltimore Colts
1957: George Wilson, Detroit Lions
