The NFL Coach of the Year is the greatest honor a coach can win as an individual, and an imperfect voting system and a lean toward coaches who face adversity throughout the season create one of the most intriguing futures markets available for the NFL.
Last year, Brian Daboll took home COY the honors as a rookie – the ninth time since 2000 a rookie HC won the award.
It’s almost impossible for a coach to go back-to-back — it hasn’t happened since Joe Gibbs in ’82 and ’83 — and generally goes to a coach whose team surprisingly breaks onto the scene or greatly exceeds expectations.
With that in mind, I’ll be targeting coaches in the first or second year leading teams primed for a breakout.
NFL Coach of the Year Award Odds
All NFL odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, June 13, at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Sean Payton, Denver Broncos (+1000)
- Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions (+1000)
- Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears (+1300)
- Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons (+1400)
- Robert Saleh, New York Jets (+1500)
- Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers (+1800)
- DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans (+1800)
- Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins (+2000)
- Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts (+2000)
- Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints (+2000)
- Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers (+2000)
- Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars (+2000)
- Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers (+2000)
- Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns (+2000)
Sean Payton and Dan Campbell top the odds list for Coach of the Year, but oddsmakers seem to be expecting a wide-open race as they sit at (+1000) to open the year.
Payton and Campbell are trailed closely behind by second-year coaches Matt Eberflus (+1300) of the Chicago Bears and Arthur Smith (+1400) in Atlanta.
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NFL Coach of the Year Prediction
Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions (+1000)
Wager: 1 Unit
Campbell is the favorite to win COY for a reason after overcoming a 1-6 start last season to fall just short of a playoff bid at 9-8. And with Aaron Rodgers out of the NFC North, the Lions are the favorite to win the division.
The Lions were hampered by a lack of talent last season, but with improvements made through free agency and the draft – they should take a step forward again this season.
Campbell’s stock has never been higher, and if he’s able to answer the call by leading the Lions to a divisional title and winning the franchise their first playoff game since 1991, he should bring home Coach of the Year honors as a bonus.
Best NFL Coach of the Year Sleeper Bets
Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears (+1300)
Wager: 0.5 Unit
A similar argument for Campbell winning NFL Coach of the Year exists for divisional rival Matt Eberflus of the Chicago Bears. A weak division, an improved roster, and a step forward would put him in a prime position to take home the award.
Eberflus has lower expectations but with the key additions of D.J. Moore, as well as adding help to the offensive line – the Bears could compete in the wide-open NFC North.
If the Bears make the playoffs, and third-year quarterback Justin Fields continues to develop, Eberflus at (+1300) has fantastic value.
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts (+2000)
Wager: 0.5 Unit
Steichen is coming off leading the Eagles’ offense to a Super Bowl, and after being named head coach of the Colts, immediately got himself a dynamic weapon at quarterback with rookie Anthony Richardson.
The Colts will compete in one of the worst divisions in football, and if they can take a step forward – they could even win the AFC South.
If this team competes on a weekly basis and sneaks into the playoffs, it’s hard to see the Coach of the Year go anywhere else but Steichen.
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins (+2000)
Wager: 0.5 Unit
McDaniel has received mixed reviews through his first couple of seasons as headman of the Dolphins.
Some see him as a quirky, somewhat awkward, football genius, some see his antics as a distraction from football for his team.
No matter which camp you’re in, this is a fantastic price for a coach leading a talented team that was neutered by injuries last season and will be even more talented in 2023.
If the Dolphins can break through and enter the ranks of the NFL elite by winning an AFC East title over the Bills and Jets, McDaniel has a lot of value at (+2000).
Tua Tagovailoa is one of the top bets to consider for Comeback Player of the Year.
