Phillies Odds & Predictions | 2022 MLB Playoff Futures & Award Props
The Philadelphia Phillies finished with a disappointing 82-80 record despite having NL MVP Bryce Harper and Cy Young contender Zack Wheeler on the roster. This was primarily because of an erratic bullpen that blew 34 saves.
The team spent the offseason adding to this weakness, signing Corey Knebel to be the new closer along with setup relievers Jeurys Familia and Brad Hand. They also picked up sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, bolstering a lineup that now looks formidable.
The Phillies have to feel optimistic with their team outlook for the upcoming season.
Phillies Top Betting Odds 2022
Philadelphia Phillies MLB betting odds are current as of Thursday, March 24 at 3 p.m. ET at Caesars Sportsbook.
- World Series Winners (+3000)
- Win National League pennant (+1500)
- Win National League East title (+450)
- 2022 Win Total Over/Under: 84.5 (-110)
The Phillies have Harper, Castellanos, Schwarber, and Rhys Hoskins in their lineup, a group that combined for 128 home runs last year. Add in elite catcher J.T. Realmuto, and this looks like one of the best lineups in baseball.
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Two aces anchor the starting rotation in Wheeler and Aaron Nola. There is also Ranger Suarez, who thrived in his transition to a starter last season. Once Zach Eflin returns from injury, he’ll combine with Kyle Gibson to form the backend of a strong group.
Things can only go up for a disastrous bullpen that cost the Phillies the playoffs. Newcomers Knebel, Hand, and Familia all have closing experience, which helps shore up the late innings.
Phillies Futures Bets 2022
Phillies To Win NL East (+450) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Atlanta Braves replaced Freddie Freeman with Matt Olson, added closer Kenley Jansen, and will get Ronald Acuña Jr. back. The New York Mets signed ace Max Scherzer and Starling Marte.
Even the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals got better with the additions of Avisail Garcia and Nelson Cruz, respectively.
So why am I suggesting that the Phillies win such a tough division? It’s because they have everything that you need in a World Series contender.
Their lineup is led by one of the best hitters in the game, complemented by a group of sluggers and an elite catcher. The rotation has two aces at the top and a potential breakout number three. The bullpen is much more improved as well.
Simply put, the Phillies are undervalued at this price. While I agree the Mets and Braves should be favored ahead of them, the gap is not as wide as the odds suggest.
This is especially true when you consider injury concerns with Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom and the fact that Acuña Jr. is returning from a torn ACL.
Capitalize on the value and take Philadelphia for our MLB bet of the day.
Phillies Win 2022 NL East
Bet $20, Payout $110
Phillies OVER 84.5 Wins (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
We’ll add the Over on their season win total to balance out the risk of taking them to win the division. We’re getting a great deal at 84.5 wins.
This is a team that won 82 games last season despite so many blown saves. Part of that was a weak bullpen, but it’s also due to variance. There’s nowhere to go but up in this regard.
While Knebel, Familia, and Hand won’t ever be mistaken for elite relievers, they definitely help shore up a weakness.
When you also consider how much the lineup has improved with Schwarber and Castellanos, you have a team that looks much better than last year.
Adding this futures bet is important because it helps ensure you against the risk that the Phillies have a good season and make the playoffs without winning the division.
Phillies: OVER 84.5 Wins
Bet $20, Payout $38
Phillies Player Prop Bets 2022
Aaron Nola to Win NL Cy Young (+2000) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
It’s important that your Cy Young choice fits the traditional archetype. The first variable is volume, and Nola has that in spades. The Phillies’ ace has pitched 180 or more innings in the last three full seasons, eclipsing 200 in two of those years.
Next, we need to think about strikeout rate. Nola earns high marks here as well, posting a whiff rate above 26 percent in five consecutive seasons.
He’s also going to need strong ratios, so his ERA and WHIP need to fit the bill. Nola has posted a sub-3.55 ERA in three of his last five seasons, including one year at 2.37. His WHIP has been below 1.15 in three of his previous four.
Entering his age-29 season, he is still in the midst of his prime. Nola has the track record to win this award, and +2000 is terrific value.
Aaron Nola: To Win 2022 NL Cy Young
Bet $20, Payout $420
Kyle Schwarber to Hit Most Home Runs (+5000) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
Schwarber combined for 32 home runs in 471 plate appearances between the Nationals and Boston Red Sox last season.
With the universal DH, Schwarber now will have a full season to focus on hitting. In addition, giving him a breather at DH will likely help him stay healthy for an entire year.
That means more plate appearances and more opportunities to hit home runs. Schwarber averaged one homer per 14.71 plate appearances last season.
If he maintains that rate at 550 instead of 471, we’re looking at 38 homers. There’s a reasonable chance that he can keep this pace, especially hitting at the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park.
Hitting in such a stacked lineup should benefit him with protection, giving him better pitches to hit. At +5000, this is a longshot bet that is mispriced. Let’s take advantage.
Kyle Schwarber: MLB Home Run Leader
Bet $20, Payout $1020