The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby will kick off All-Star Weekend in Philadelphia on Monday, July 13 at 8 p.m. ET.
This year’s contest will return to a more traditional format, which caps the number of swings each participant is allowed. In the first round, all eight players will receive 20 swings. After that, the seeded second round (1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3) and the two-person final round will be contested with 15 swings.
Each swing will count against that total, regardless of whether the player hits a home run or not, but players who hit a home run on their final swing of a round will be allowed to continue swinging until they fail to homer.
Let’s assess the 2026 Home Run Derby odds before making our MLB HR Derby prediction and betting on some Home Run Derby props.
MLB Home Run Derby Odds
All MLB betting odds for the Home Run Derby are current as of Monday, July 13, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Kyle Schwarber (+300)
- Junior Caminero (+425)
- Munetaka Murakami (+500)
- Jac Caglianone (+700)
- Jordan Walker (+800)
- Bryce Harper (+800)
- Ben Rice (+850)
- Wilson Contreras (+1400)
MLB HR Derby Park Factors
The ballpark can play a major role in the results of a home run derby, particularly if its dimensions are favorable for hitters from one side of the plate.
While the dimensions of Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park are pretty similar on both sides, measuring 328 feet to left field and 330 feet to right, left-handed hitters have a slight advantage going to right center (370) vs left center (375).
According to Baseball Savant, Citizens Bank Park has been better for left-handed hitters, as seen over a three-season rolling average. Using a 100-scale measurement, which considers “100" to be league average and each number above or below to be a one percent deviation from the average, this is how Citizens Bank Park stacks up:
Citizens Bank Park 3-Year Average Park Factors (2024-2026)
- LHB: 105 (2nd in MLB)
- RHB: 100 (16th in MLB)
That advantage is born out in the stats, as lefties have mashed an MLB-high 132 home runs at Citizens Bank Park since 2024, while righties have only hit 99 homers over the same span.
This year’s HR Derby field has five left-handed participants, including two who play for the Philadelphia Phillies, potentially giving them a home-field advantage.
Who Will Win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
Kyle Schwarber (+300)
I don’t typically like to bet the favorite to win the MLB Home Run Derby, but Schwarber makes a lot sense.
The 33-year-old lefty leads the league with 32 home runs this season, and he’ll be hitting in the ballpark where he hit 19 of those homers in just 163 at-bats.
Schwarber also has Home Run Derby experience, having finished second to now-teammate Bryce Harper in 2018 and falling to Albert Pujols in the first round of the 2022 edition.
I’m backing him to take home the title this time around as my MLB bet of the day.
Best MLB HR Derby Props
Over 119.5 Total Home Runs in Derby (-110)
The 2026 MLB Home Run Derby field is one of the strongest in recent memory.
Per MLB.com, five contestants have a 2026 Dinger Score above 75, which is pretty impressive in a 1-99 rating system that calculates a player’s power and home-run potential. The lowest-ranked player in the field, Ben Rice (44), has 29 homers on the year.
That bodes well for the likelihood that these players put on a show at Citizens Bank Park, which is one of the friendlier ballparks to home-run hitters.
And while the new Home Run Derby format caps the minimum number of swings at 250, we’ll likely see more than that, since players can continue if they homer on their final swing of a round. A three-swing swing-off could also help boost this number if there’s a tie in Rounds 2 and 3.
Jac Caglianone: Hits Highest Exit Velocity HR (+500)
Caglianone has the fewest home runs this season (15) of any player in the Home Run Derby, but he’s an intriguing dark-horse candidate to win the HR Derby.
The Kansas City Royals left-hander has elite power, ranking first in the field in average exit velocity (98.1) and HR exit velocity (108.6).
While he doesn’t quite have the bat speed as Junior Caminero (+240) and Jordan Walker (+275), the two favorites in this category, he has shown he can mash with the best power hitters in the league.
At +500 odds, I’ll take my chances on Caglianone to hit the highest exit velocity home run of the night.
