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Home Run Derby Odds & Predictions 2024

Frank AmmiranteSenior Sports Writer
@FAmmiranteTFJ
Last Updated: Jul 10, 2023

The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby is upon us, hailing from T-Mobile Park in Seattle. This is the third time that the city of Seattle will host the All-Star Game and first since 2001.

San Diego Padres’ All-Star Juan Soto is the defending champion, but he won’t be participating in this year’s event. However, two-time winner Pete Alonso and last year’s runner-up Julio Rodríguez are two of the notable names who highlight the competition.

This is a stacked field packed with some of the best power hitters in baseball, so it’ll be interesting to see who comes out victorious. With that in mind, let’s examine the 2023 Home Run Derby field and determine which prop bets you should consider.

Home Run Derby Odds To Win

All MLB betting odds are current as of Monday, July 7, at 9 a.m. ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Here’s how the HR Derby competitors rank for lines to win the competition:

  • Pete Alonso (+310)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+370)
  • Julio Rodríguez (+500)
  • Luis Robert Jr. (+500)
  • Adolis García (+700)
  • Randy Arozarena (+1000)
  • Mookie Betts (+1100)
  • Adley Rutschman (+1800)

Alonso may be the two-time champion, but he’s got a tough matchup in the first round with Rodríguez, who made it to the finals last year.

You can bet that the Mariners’ star will be looking to win it all this time, especially in front of a home crowd in Seattle.

The Mets’ slugger is also on the more difficult side of the bracket since even if he knocks off Rodríguez, he’ll have to go up against Mookie Betts (26 home runs) or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (98th-percentile average exit velocity).

This is why the hitters on the other side of the bracket like Luis Robert Jr. (26 home runs), Adolis García (23 home runs), and Randy Arozarena (16 home runs) look like intriguing bets.

While Orioles’ catcher Adley Rutschman is a terrific hitter, he doesn’t have the same type of power as others in the field, so winning this contest feels like a longshot.

T-Mobile HR Derby Park Factors

The ballpark can play a major role in the results of a home run derby, particularly if its dimensions are favorable for hitters from one side of the plate.

According to Baseball Savant, T-Mobile Park has been better for right-handed hitters, as seen over a three-season rolling average. However, it’s actually been a bit better for lefties in a smaller sample of the first half of the 2023 season.

Using a 100-scale measurement, which considers “100" to be league average and each number above or below to be a one percent deviation from the average, this is how T-Mobile Park stacks up:

T-Mobile Park 3-Year Average Park Factors (2021-2023)

  • LHB: 89 (11% Below MLB Avg, Worst Stadium)
  • RHB: 96 (4% Below MLB Avg, 3rd-Worst Stadium)

T-Mobile Park 2023 Park Factors

  • LHB: 96 (4% Below MLB Avg, 5th-Worst Stadium)
  • RHB: 93 (7% Below MLB Avg, 3rd-Worst Stadium)

However, it’s worth noting that T-Mobile is better for righties strictly in home runs (14th) compared to lefties (24th) over a three-year rolling average.

The only player who this may affect is Rutschman, who is a switch-hitter. However, there’s a chance that he bats from the right side to avoid this challenge against lefties.

Rutschman has a career .192 ISO as a righty (.114 ISO as a lefty), so it would be smart for him to hit from the right side.

Below is a list of how each participant’s 2023 HR total compares to their expected HR total at T-Mobile Park.

HR Derby Competitors: Actual 2023 HR vs Expected HR at T-Mobile Park

  • Pete Alonso: 26/25
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 13/15
  • Luis Robert Jr.: 26/29
  • Julio Rodríguez: 13/13
  • Adolis García: 23/29
  • Mookie Betts: 26/27
  • Randy Arozarena: 16/18
  • Adley Rutschman: 12/13

Home Run Derby Predictions

Luis Robert Jr. over Julio Rodríguez to win HR Derby

A battle between the two hitters that rank third in odds in the Home Run Derby finals would be an exciting prediction, especially with Rodríguez playing in front of a home crowd.

We saw Julio excel in this contest last year, where he put up an impressive 30-plus home runs in the first two rounds. The only issue is that he’s been a bit disappointing this season with only 13 long balls.

On the other hand, Robert is in the middle of a breakout year, where he’s already setting a career-high with 26 home runs.

This is not only Robert’s first home run derby, but also his first All-Star Game. You can bet that he’ll be looking to make an impression in this one.

It also helps that Robert would have three additional homers if he played every game at T-Mobile Park. Look for the White Sox star to take home the hardware in this year’s competition.

MLB HR Derby Best Prop Bets

Outright Winner: Luis Robert Jr. (+500)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Robert gets to face Rutschman in the first round, which is huge since the Orioles’ catcher has the longest odds to win the contest, making him the most favorable matchup.

The White Sox outfielder also gets to avoid Alonso until the finals. This sets up Robert to have an easier route to the final round.

There’s a chance that perennial tournament favorites like Alonso may be eliminated earlier than the finals due to the stiffer competition on that side of the bracket.

Add in the fact that Robert is in the middle of a breakout season and you have a great choice for this year’s home run derby winner in our MLB bet of the day.

Derby Matchups: Luis Robert Jr. over Adley Rutschman (-215)

WAGER: 1 Unit

It may seem reckless to lay such heavy juice at -215 odds in a home run derby matchup, but I believe that it’s warranted in this case.

Robert has more than twice as many home runs as Rutschman this season. In fact, Robert has a 93rd percentile barrel rate, whereas Rutschman is in the 34th percentile.

To put it bluntly, Rutschman is a bit of a misfit in this field. He’s a terrific overall hitter but doesn’t have as much power as anyone else in this competition. Look for Robert to advance past the first round.

Derby Matchups: Adolis García over Randy Arozarena (-145)

WAGER: 1 Unit

We’re getting a reasonable price on García to knock off Arozarena in the first round.

This makes it an appealing bet because not only is Garcia the better power hitter, but he’s also quite comfortable in T-Mobile Park.

For one, Garcia plays for the division rival Texas Rangers, so he’s played in Seattle much more often Arozarena.

But more importantly, Garcia’s skill-set works well in this park as a right-handed power hitter. In fact, if Garcia played each of his games at T-Mobile, he’d have six additional home runs, while Arozarena would only have two.

Author

Frank Ammirante

Frank Ammirante is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously, he wrote for 4for4 Football and RotoBaller. Frank is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writer's Association while maintaining an active presence within the community. He has competed in industry contests like the Scott Fish Bowl, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and more. Frank will be making his debut in Tout Wars this year. He's got a diverse sporting background, but specializes in football and baseball.

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