Home Run Derby Odds & Predictions 2023 | MLB All-Star Game HR Derby Picks

Last Updated: Jul 18, 2022

The 2022 MLB Home Run Derby is upon us, hailing from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. This is the first time LA has hosted the All-Star game since 1980 and the first time the venue has ever hosted the Home Run Derby, which debuted in 1985.

New York Mets All-Star Pete Alonso is the two-time defending champion of the event, winning the Derby at Progressive Field in Cleveland in 2019 and Coors Field in 2021 (there were no All-Star events in 2020). The 27-year-old launched 74 home runs during his victory last season, totaling over six miles in distance.

However, Alonso has quite the challenge in Los Angeles with a stacked field ready to take away his crown. So let’s examine the 2022 Home Run Derby field and which prop bets you should consider.

Home Run Derby Odds To Win

All 2022 MLB Home Run Derby betting odds are current as of Monday, July 18, at 3 p.m. ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Pete Alonso (+200)
  • Kyle Schwarber (+330)
  • Juan Soto (+550)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. (+650)
  • Julio Rodriguez (+800)
  • Corey Seager (+1100)
  • Jose Ramirez (+1700)
  • Albert Pujols (+2200)

Alonso may be the reigning champion, but National League home run leader Kyle Schwarber is the No. 1 seed in the contest. Schwarber will face future Hall Of Famer Albert Pujols (8) in the first round, which should be an exciting nostalgia boost if nothing else.

Alonso slots into the No. 2 seed and will take on division rival Ronald Acuna Jr. (7) in the first round. The Atlanta Braves superstar leads the majors with an average home run distance of 437 feet and will not be an easy out.

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Former Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager will return to Los Angeles as a representative of the Texas Rangers and the participant with the most comfort in this hitting environment. The No. 3 seed will square off with American League Rookie of the Year favorite Julio Rodriguez (6) in the first round.

The last remaining opening-round matchup is between Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto (4) and Cleveland Guardians star Jose Ramirez (5).

Dodger Stadium Park Factors

The ballpark can be a massive factor in the results of a home run derby, especially if it favors hitters from one side of the plate.

According to Baseball Savant, Dodger Stadium offers a significant boost to right-handed hitters, both over a three-season rolling average and in 2022 on its own.

Using a 100-scale measurement, which considers “100" to be league average and each number above or below to be a one percent deviation from the average, this is how Dodger Stadium stacks up:

Dodger Stadium 3-Year Average Park Factors (2020-2022)

  • LHB: 99 (1% Below MLB Avg, 13th-Best Stadium)
  • RHB: 146 (46% Above MLB Avg, 2nd-Best Stadium)

Dodger Stadium 2022 Park Factors

  • LHB: 101 (1% Above MLB Avg, 14th-Best Stadium)
  • RHB: 124 (24% Above MLB Avg, 4th-Best Stadium)

This should give a decent boost to right-handed batters such as Alonso and Pujols but should not hinder left-handed hitters with a high average HR distance. It should be noted that Ramirez is a switch-hitter but carries far more power from the left side.

Below is a list of how each participant’s 2022 HR total compares to their expected HR total at Dodger Stadium.

HR Derby Competitors: Actual 2022 HR vs. Expected HR at Dodger Stadium

  • Kyle Schwarber: 29/33
  • Pete Alonso: 24/26
  • Corey Seager: 22/26
  • Juan Soto: 20/23
  • Jose Ramirez: 19/20
  • Julio Rodriguez: 16/17
  • Ronald Acuna Jr.: 8/13
  • Albert Pujols: 6/9

Home Run Derby Predictions

Pete Alonso over Kyle Schwarber

A battle between the two favorites in the Home Run Derby finals may not seem like an exciting prediction, but these two participants should give us plenty of fireworks.

Schwarber leads the NL in home runs with 29, while Alonso’s not far behind at 24. Schwarber does have the advantage of playing half of his games at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, but with an average home run distance of 413 feet, he does not need much help.

Alonso will again have his former coach Dave Jauss throwing to him, which is a significant advantage given their track record of success. The 65-year-old Jauss has displayed pinpoint accuracy during Alonso’s previous events, making it easier to tally as many home runs as possible.

I will give the nod to Alonso to take home the trophy again due to his experience and slight advantage as a right-handed hitter at Dodger Stadium.

MLB HR Derby Best Prop Bets

Outright Winner: Pete Alonso (+200)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Alonso’s track record of success in this competition should give him an edge due to his ability to pace himself properly in an event that can tire you out quickly.

As mentioned above, the return of Jauss as his partner should not be understated. Add those variables to Alonso’s natural talent for the event along with his right-handed advantage, and you have a three-peat champion as our MLB bet of the day.

Name The Finalists: Kyle Schwarber vs Pete Alonso (+350)

WAGER: 1 Unit

You can choose between hedging your bets by selecting Alonso and Schwarber as finalists in the Home Run Derby or predicting a Straight Forecast (below). However, it may not be a bad idea to double down and place a wager on both, mainly if you are sold on the matchup.

Straight Forecast: Pete Alonso over Kyle Schwarber (+600)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Alonso and Schwarber are the two strongest competitors in the field, but as mentioned above, Alonso is better suited for this event.

The Mets All-Star has one too many advantages, so at (+600), this wager is a no-brainer to add to your Home Run Derby betting ticket.

Highest Exit Velocity: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+220)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Not only does Acuna carry the highest average HR distance in the majors, but he also sports the highest average exit velocity (91.4 mph) and Max EV (116.6 mph) in the Home Run Derby field.

Alonso is right behind Acuna in Max EV at 116.5 mph, while Schwarber carries the highest EV on fly balls and line drives at 99 mph. That said, you should bet on Acuna to get a hold of one and set the high mark for the contest.


Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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