MLB Home Run Leader Odds & Best Bets

Last Updated: Mar 3, 2023

Aaron Judge made history in 2022 by setting the American League home run record with 62. The Yankees slugger led the major leagues by a massive margin, finishing 16 home runs ahead of Kyle Schwarber.

Twenty-three players finished the season with more than 30 long balls, with 10 surpassing the 35-home run mark.

Let’s take a look at our updated 2023 MLB Home Run Leader odds and best bets.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2023

MLB Home Run Leader betting odds are current as of Friday, Feb. 3, from Caesars Sportsbook.

  • Aaron Judge, Yankees (+600)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (+1000)
  • Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+1000)
  • Mike Trout, Angels (+1000)
  • Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+1200)
  • Pete Alonso, Mets (+1200)
  • Austin Riley, Braves (+2000)
  • Shohei Ohtani, Angels (+2000)
  • Matt Olson, Braves (+2500)
  • Fernando Tatís Jr., Padres (+2500)
  • Juan Soto, Padres (+3000)
  • Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (+3000)
  • Kyle Tucker, Astros (+3000)
  • Eloy Jiménez, White Sox (+3500)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves (+4000)
  • Rafael Devers, Red Sox (+4000)
  • Julio Rodríguez, Mariners (+4000)

There are no real surprises on the board, with several options for value if you are willing to take a gamble.

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MLB Home Run Leader Best Bet 2023

Pete Alonso, Mets (+1200) | Caesars Sportsbook

Wait, why not Judge?

First of all, you can’t go wrong with placing a wager on Judge to lead MLB in home runs, but this is about value.

Since 2019, no one has hit more long balls than Alonso (146). Even after hitting 62 home runs last season, Judge trails the Polar Bear by nine.

It makes perfect sense that Judge is the betting favorite (+600), but at +1200, Alonso is my best bet for 2023.

MLB Home Run Leader Contenders 2023

Aaron Judge, Yankees (+600) | Caesars Sportsbook

The man hit 62 home runs last season.

There is a strong chance that the regression bug shows up to take a large bite out of Judge this season, but the results will still land the Yankees superstar among the league leaders in home runs.

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+1000) | Caesars Sportsbook

Only Alonso and Judge have hit more home runs than Schwarber since 2019, and he is a serious threat to take down the HR crown in 2023.

Citizens Bank Park is one of the friendliest environments in baseball, allowing Schwarber to crank out 46 long balls last season.

Look for the Phillies slugger to be in the mix all summer long.

Mike Trout, Angels (+1000) | Caesars Sportsbook

It took Trout just 438 at-bats to hit 40 home runs last season. That is pretty amazing, considering the Angels superstar missed so much time with injury.

Staying on the field is a legitimate concern at this point in Trout’s career, but if he were able to maintain a full season of plate appearances, there is no reason the modern-day GOAT couldn’t lead the league in bombs.

Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+1200) | Caesars Sportsbook

In my opinion, Alvarez is the best hitter in baseball.

The Astros designated hitter is fresh off a season in which he posted a .306/.406.,613 slash line with 37 home runs and a 185 wRC+.

Alvarez is in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel percentage.

You read that correctly.

See the latest MLB futures odds and picks

MLB Home Run Leader Sleeper 2023

Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (+3000) | Caesars Sportsbook

When healthy, there are very few players who can match Stanton’s power.

The Bronx Bomber is always among the league leaders in exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate. The only thing that seems to hold Stanton back is his ability to remain on the field.

Stanton managed to hit 31 home runs in just 398 at-bats last season and cracked 59 back in 2017.

If you’re looking for a long shot, Stanton is a decent bet.

Rowdy Tellez, Brewers (+6000) | Caesars Sportsbook

This is a legitimate long shot, but not as far of a reach as you may think.

Tellez hit 35 long balls in 2022 and returns to the friendly confines of American Family Field in Milwaukee, where he slugged .537 with a .306 ISO.

The 6’4′ 255-pound slugger can mash, and if he can run into a prolonged hot streak, he could be quite the bargain at +6000.


Matt Williams

Matt Williams is the Lead MLB Editor for The Game Day, formerly of The Athletic and NBC Sports. Matt is the former host of the Turn Two Podcast and champion of both Tout Wars and the Kings Classic fantasy expert leagues. He has been nominated for an FSWA award and is known for his analytical breakdown threads on Twitter.

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