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MLB Home Run Leader Odds & Best Bets

Frank AmmiranteSenior Sports Writer
@FAmmiranteTFJ
Last Updated: Jul 12, 2023

Aaron Judge made history in 2022 by setting the American League home run record with 62. Angels’ superstar Shohei Ohtani has a chance to beat this record, as he has 32 home runs as of the All-Star Break.

It’ll be interesting to see how it all unfolds in the second half. If Ohtani can pull this off, it would be a truly spectacular feat for the dual-threat star.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at our updated 2023 MLB Home Run Leader odds and best bets.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds 2024

MLB Home Run Leader betting odds are current as of Wednesday, July 12, from DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Shohei Ohtani, Angels (+100)
  • Matt Olson, Braves (+200)
  • Pete Alonso, Mets (+600)
  • Mookie Betts, Dodgers (+1300)
  • Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+2000)
  • Luis Robert, White Sox (+2500)
  • Adolis García, Rangers (+2500)
  • Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves (+4000)
  • Jorge Soler, Marlins (+5000)
  • Rafael Devers, Red Sox (+7000)

As expected, Ohtani is the heavy favorite since he has 32 home runs, which is three more than second-place Matt Olson.

However, there’s still a lot of baseball left to play, giving an opportunity for other hitters to get in the mix for the home run leader.

This gives us a chance to find some value on a long shot.


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MLB Home Run Leader Best Bet 2024

Pete Alonso, Mets (+600)

DraftKings Sportsbook • Wager: 1 Unit

Alonso has hit 26 home runs in 348 plate appearances, which is 50 fewer than Ohtani.

That means that if Alonso didn’t miss some time with a wrist injury, he’d likely be much closer to the lead.

Despite that, Alonso ranks third in odds behind Ohtani and Olson. This gives us some value on the Mets’ slugger, who has one 50-plus home run season under his belt.

MLB Home Run Leader Contenders 2024

Shohei Ohtani, Angels (+100)

DraftKings Sportsbook • Wager: 1 Unit

Ohtani has been unbelievable this season, displaying improved power, as he’s only 14 homers short of his career-high of 46, set in 2021.

The only reason why Ohtani isn’t listed in the Best Bet section is that it’s tough to lay +100 odds on a futures bet where an injury could cost you a win.

There’s also plenty of time for other hitters to catch up to Ohtani. Having said that, he’s the most likely hitter to lead in home runs at this point, which is reflected in the +100 price.

Matt Olson, Braves (+200)

DraftKings Sportsbook • Wager: 1 Unit

Olson has been on fire lately, homering 11 times since June 15. This is an elite power hitter with a 39-home run season under his belt (2021).

There’s a good chance that he’ll be setting a new career-high this season, as he already has 29 homers in only 400 plate appearances.

While the odds aren’t that appealing at +200, you have to like Olson’s chances of leading in home runs.

Mookie Betts, Dodgers (+1300)

DraftKings Sportsbook • Wager: 1 Unit

Betts is quietly having a massive year, putting up 26 homers in only 396 plate appearances.

What’s most impressive here is that Betts is only nine away from his career-high of 35 home runs, set last season.

The reason why the odds are so long is that Betts doesn’t have as much power as others like Ohtani, Olson, and Alonso. It’s likely that Betts will slow down a bit, but at a +1300 price, it’s worth taking a shot.


See the latest MLB futures odds and picks


MLB Home Run Leader Sleeper 2024

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+2000)

DraftKings Sportsbook • Wager: 1 Unit

Schwarber has about as much raw power as anyone on this list, but we get him at an appealing +2000 price.

That’s due to the Phillies’ slugger is 10 home runs behind Ohtani with 22 on the season.

However, we’ve seen Schwarber go on home run binges in the past, as he homered 12 times last June. We saw him finish with 46 home runs as recent as last season, so he’s firmly in contention to lead the league in long balls.

Jorge Soler, Marlins (+5000)

DraftKings Sportsbook • Wager: 1 Unit

Soler is priced at +5000 despite having one more home run than Schwarber (+2000 odds).

Oddsmakers are giving Soler such long odds since he plays in a pitcher-friendly environment at LoanDepot Park.

However, this is a hitter with a 48-home run season (2019), so there’s elite raw power in this bat. At +5000 odds, Soler is worth a sprinkle.

Author

Frank Ammirante

Frank Ammirante is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously, he wrote for 4for4 Football and RotoBaller. Frank is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writer's Association while maintaining an active presence within the community. He has competed in industry contests like the Scott Fish Bowl, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and more. Frank will be making his debut in Tout Wars this year. He's got a diverse sporting background, but specializes in football and baseball.

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