The Fourth of July is the ultimate summer holiday. There’s baseball, cookouts, beaches, fireworks, and Joey Chestnut inhaling an ungodly number of hot dogs.
Chestnut is set to retake center stage at the 106th Nathan’s Famous International event at Coney Island on Monday, where he’ll look to win his seventh straight Mustard Belt and 15th overall. He’ll also attempt to top his record of 76 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes, which he set last year.
Can anyone knock off the defending champ? Or will Chestnut out-gorge the competition once again?
Let’s dig in with our Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions and best bets.
All Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests odds and lines are current as of Thursday, June 30, at 12 p.m. ET from BetMGM Sportsbook.
Joey Chestnut Nathan’s Hot Dog Odds
- Joey Chestnut (-3000)
- The Field (+1000)
This event is Chestnut’s to lose. He’s won six in a row and 14 of the last 15, with his lone defeat coming in 2015 to Matt Stonie.
It’s safe to say that year was a fluke, as Chestnut hasn’t lost since.
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Chestnut has only gotten better at scarfing hot dogs. He’s distanced himself from the competition by repeatedly raising the bar and setting multiple world records during his historic run. Nobody else is even close.
At this point, the event is essentially Chestnut competing against himself. We all know he will win, so the only question is whether he can surpass his record again.
Can anyone defeat Joey Chestnut?
Chestnut is the Babe Ruth of crushing hot dogs, which is saying a lot because Ruth was also known for his prodigious appetite. He’s in a league of his own, so much so that some major sportsbooks aren’t even releasing odds on his competitors.
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That said, one possible challenger is last year’s runner-up, Geoffrey Esper. Esper wolfed down 51 hot dogs at the 2021 contest and will be extra motivated to unseat Chestnut after finishing second.
But in reality, the only man who can defeat Chestnut is Chestnut himself, like if he freezes up and forgets how to chew. You can bet on the field if you want to, but Chestnut will probably obliterate the competition the same way he destroys an unsuspecting pile of frankfurters.
Joey Chestnut Nathan’s Hot Dog Over/Under Prediction
OVER 74.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (-140)
Chestnut has exceeded this total in each of the past two years, consuming 75 in 2020 and 76 in 2021. Based on his ability to keep outdoing himself, there’s a good chance he houses even more this year.
Take the Over here. It won’t surprise me if he approaches 80.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Women’s Odds
- Miki Sudo (-5000)
- The Field (+1100)
Nathan’s Hot Dog Women’s Winner Prediction
Miki Sudo (-5000)
Sudo is an even bigger favorite than Chestnut, which is saying something. She didn’t compete last year but won this event every year from 2014-2020, so she’s out to reclaim the belt. Sudo also holds the women’s world record with 48.5 hot dogs and buns, which she set in 2020.
Don’t sleep on Michelle Lusco, though, who won the 2021 competition in Sudo’s absence. Lusco took the belt with 30.75 hot dogs last year and has to be respected as the reigning champ.