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Joey Chestnut Hot Dog Contest Predictions & Props

Last Updated: Jul 3, 2023

Joey Chestnut can pull even with himself this Fourth of July.

The American-born eating machine can tie his own record if he can claim his eighth straight Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating contest at Brooklyn’s Coney Island on July 4

The winner of the men’s and women’s competitions is the person who eats the most hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes. Chestnut has won seven straight hot-dog titles and 15 of the past 16 — he had won eight straight between 2007-14 before Matt Stonie claimed the crown in 2015 with a stunning upset.

Here’s a look at the odds for the annual Independence Day spectacle.

Joey Chestnut July 4 Hot Dog Odds

July 4 hot-dog-eating odds for Joey Chestnut and the Nathan’s contest are current as of June 28, 2023. Lines were found at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Joey Chestnut (-4000)
  • Geoffrey Esper (+1200)
  • Nick Wehry (+2000)
  • James Webb (+2500)
  • The Field (+3000)
  • Bartley Weaver IV (+4000)
  • Gideon Oji (+5000)
  • Ren Zoza (+5000)
  • Adrian Morgan (+6000)
  • Darrien Thomas (+6000)

Chestnut is the overwhelming favorite. He has won a record 15 hot dog eating contests, nine more than the next-closest competitor, rival Takeru Kobayashi.

Geoffrey Esper finished second in 2022, 16 off Chestnut’s pace.

Will Anyone Defeat Joey Chestnut This Year?

Without Kobayashi, who has not participated in the event since 2009 due to his unwillingness to join the sanctioning body Major League Eating, it seems highly unlikely anyone will challenge Chestnut. Chestnut appeared to cruise to victory in 2022 and could again this year.

The bigger question is if he wants to, or is able to, break his own world record.

Joey Chestnut Hot Dogs Eaten Over/Under

  • Over 73.5 (-105)
  • Under 73.5 (-125)

Chestnut has surpassed 70 hot dogs eaten in six of the past seven contests, despite falling short of the mark in 2022. He has topped 74 in three of the past five, including in 2021 where he set the world record of 76 hot dogs eaten.

🌭 See what betting promos can be found for Joey Chestnut’s July 4 hot dog competition.

Joey Chestnut Prop Bets

Will Joey Chestnut Beat His Personal Best: Yes (+255)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

Chestnut has finished at least 75 dogs in two of the past three years. Although he fell off down the stretch last year, it could partly be attributed to the distraction of a protestor, whom Chestnut took down with a chokehold early in the contest.

Still, would it shock anyone to see Chestnut finish 77 dogs — or 7.7 per minute? He was on a world-record pace for the first six minutes in 2022 before taking his foot off the gas and downing just 16 in the final four minutes.

Could he be slowing down? I guess. But when looking at best bets, I want to wager on history to be made, especially at these odds.

Over 73.5 Hot Dogs (-105)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Again, Chestnut has surpassed this number in two of the past three contests. If you think he’ll break the world record then you should also wager on him surpassing 74.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Women’s Odds

  • Miki Sudo (-5000)
  • Michelle Lesco (+1500)
  • The Field (+2500)

Miki Sudo has won eight of the past nine women’s competitions, only failing to claim the 2021 title because she did not participate after having a baby. She’s ranked third in the world in competitive-eating rankings, men and women, owns the women’s world record of 48½, and downed 40 a year ago.

Michelle Lesco is the only other woman participating who has won the event, doing so in Sudo’s absence by eating 30¾ hot dogs and buns in 2021.

Author

Pat Pickens

Pat Pickens is a seasoned sportswriter who has covered pro sports since 2013 for various websites, including The New York Times, NHL.com, Bleacher Report, Sportsnet.ca, USA Today, the Associated Press and many others. His debut book, titled "The Whalers" about the history of the NHL's Hartford Whalers, was released in October 2021.

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