The Golden Boot race at the World Cup can be exciting and unpredictable. Not only does the winner need to perform at a high level, but their team must also advance deep enough into the tournament to provide enough scoring opportunities.
Superstars like 2018 golden boot winner Harry Kane, Neymar, Kylian Mbappé, and Lionel Messi are sure to grab headlines.
However, we only need to look to the previous tournament in 2014 and surprise winner James Rodriguez as a reminder to mine for potentially profitable dark-horse candidates.
Below are the betting odds for who will lead this year’s World Cup in scoring, but who are the best bets to hoist the tournament’s golden boot?
World Cup Golden Boot Winner Odds
World Cup top goalscorer lines for the top favorites are current as of Thursday, Oct. 17, at 9 a.m. EST on Caesars Sportsbook.
- Harry Kane, England (+800)
- Kylian Mbappe, France (+900)
- Karim Benzema, France (+1100)
- Neymar, Brazil (+1200)
- Lionel Messi, Argentina (+1200)
- Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal (+1400)
- Vinicius Jr., Brazil (+2500)
- Romelu Lukaku, Belgium (+2500)
- Lautaro Martinez, Argentina (+2800)
- Memphis Depay, Netherlands (+2800)
- Gabriel Jesus, Brazil (+3000)
- Richarlison, Brazil (+3000)
- Kai Havertz, Germany (+3500)
- Aleksandar Mitrovic, Serbia (+4000)
- Dusan Vlahovic, Serbia (+4000)
- Serge Gnabry, Germany (+4000)
- Ferran Torres, Spain(+4000)
- Antoine Griezmann, France (+4000)
- Alvaro Morata, Spain (+4000)
World Cup betting around the top goalscorer should account for the squad’s ability to reach the deep rounds of the tournament; the percentage of chances and time on the pitch; the squad’s high-danger scoring chances; and much more.
World Cup Golden Boot Prediction
Neymar, Brazil (+1200)
WAGER: 1 unit
I expect Brazil to have a strong showing in the World Cup. (They’re strong favorites in World Cup winner odds, after all.)
Logically, Neymar should be at the center of their success. The dynamic 30-year-old can create scoring chances from anywhere while prolific in set-piece opportunities.
In addition, Brazil are set to face Serbia, Switzerland, and Cameroon during the group stage and should cruise into the Round of 16. This group is by no means a pushover, but it would be a significant upset if Neymar and company failed to advance.
World Cup Golden Boot Contenders
Harry Kane, England (+800)
WAGER: 1 unit
The odds-on favorite for the Golden Boot needs to be mentioned, and for a good reason.
Kane is likely to see the vast majority of chances for the Three Lions while also taking their penalty kicks.
- Read our USA vs England prediction.
The English captain led his nation to a fourth-place finish in 2018 while winning the Golden Boot with six goals overall.
Kane is about as consistent as they come, and if England are to advance deep into the tournament, they will need a standout performance from their star striker.
Lautaro Martinez, Argentina (+2800)
WAGER: 1 unit
The Inter Milan striker has been a standout force on the attack in Serie A and is my pick for breakout star in this year’s World Cup. Martinez has scored 21 goals in 40 games for Argentina and 10 in his last 19 matches.
A vast majority of the attention will be given to his legendary teammate Lionel Messi, leaving Martinez free to exploit this defensive attention.
Plus, Argentina will likely make it very deep into the tournament, which should provide more opportunities than Martinez’s competitors.
World Cup Golden Boot Sleepers
Steven Bergwijn, Netherlands (+5000)
WAGER: 1 unit
The Netherlands are poised to cruise into the Round of 16 after drawing Group A in the World Cup (Qatar, Senegal, and Ecuador). This opportunity will automatically give their goal scorers a leg up in the Golden Boot competition.
(Don’t miss our complete World Cup Group A odds preview.)
Most attention will be on Memphis Depay to lead the Dutch side in scoring, but I am backing forward Bergwijn to make some noise at +5000.
The 25-year-old did not reach expectations during his brief tenure with Tottenham, but Bergwijn has scored six goals in his last nine appearances in international competition while being a consistent threat in the Champions League.
USMNT World Cup Golden Boot Candidates
Christian Pulisic comes in at +12500 to win the Golden Boot, but I would not recommend backing the United States striker.
Team USA is unlikely to make it past the Round of 16 and are by no means a lock to qualify out of Group B with England, Wales, and Iran.
That said, there are few primary scorers that you can grab at these odds, so if you are looking to take a chance, Pulisic is not the worst long shot on which to gamble. If USMNT are to make a surprise run, the 24-year-old will undoubtedly be the catalyst.
(Read our full breakdown of World Cup Group B odds to see USMNT’s chances to advance into the knockout stage.)
If you’re looking for a good value bet, take the U.S. to win Group B, as the price has dipped due to recent performances.