We clearly disrespected the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the hockey gods made us pay for it.
The two-time defending champions rose up and beat the Colorado Avalanche 3-2 on Friday to force a Game 6 of the Stanley Cup final Sunday at Amalie Arena.
Still, one of our four prop picks hit, which isn’t bad since the long-odds of a Cale Makar goal cashed in for bettors who tailed.
Here’s a look at Game 6.
All NHL playoff odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, June 25, at 10 a.m. ET.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 6 Props
Race to 3 Goals: Colorado (+121)
Wager: 1 Unit
If you’ve been reading this space, you know we like this prop a lot.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Before you make your next NHL playoffs bet, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is among the industry’s best, offering tons of promotions. Get up to $1,500 in first bet insurance when you use our promo code .
Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our NHL tipster picks.
The Cup final has had incredible energy, especially in Games 4 and 5, yet it’s undoubtedly going to turn into something of a slog the longer it goes. This will be the teams’ fifth game in eight days, and they’ve traveled from Tampa to Colorado and back to Florida with limited rest and recovery in between.
The travel and compact schedule mitigate skill, plus everyone is weary and playing injured this time of year, which means three goals is about the most we can expect from the winner. We tend to think Colorado will figure out a way to get to three goals first, either by scoring in overtime or extremely late in regulation, or potentially with an empty-netter.
Lightning Under 2.5 Goals (+115)
Wager: 1 Unit
As stated above, this series is going to turn into a grind. Would we be stunned to see a 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1 game in Game 6? Absolutely not. With that stated, this prop is somewhat result-proof since the Lightning have won three times this postseason by scoring two goals or fewer, though they have saved those performances for clinching games.
We said on our predictions page that we still haven’t seen the best from Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy in this series. If he authors a performance for the ages Tampa Bay can win with fewer than 2 and force a Game 7 on Tuesday in Denver.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 6 Player Props
Cale Makar: Over 0.5 Assists (-140)
Wager: 2 Units
We nailed the Makar goal prop in Game 5, and frankly think he could score again in Game 6, but this one is a lock given the odds on this prop and Makar’s involvement in everything the Avs do offensively.
Looking for more ways to bet the Stanley Cup final?
- Check out our Avalanche vs Lightning Game 6 Predictions
- Tail our best Avalanche vs Lightning Game 6 Parlays
Makar might be banged up, but he is riding a three-game assist streak where he’s posted four helpers. He has at least one assist in 12 of Colorado’s 19 playoff games so far and seems poised to put his stamp on a Conn Smythe Trophy-winning playoff run with an enormous performance in Game 6.
Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goalscorer (+155)
Wager: 1 Unit
We’re stubbornly going back to this well since MacKinnon is going to have to do something to put Colorado over the top. The Avalanche top-line center has just four points and one goal in five games, solid numbers for an average player but inferior for a game-breaking superstar like MacKinnon.
It’s only a matter of time until the dam breaks and MacKinnon scores again. He’s scored only once on 28 shots in five games (3.5 percent), and the goal went in off his skate in Game 4. For a player who has shot 10.1 percent over his nine-season NHL career, and is shooting almost 11 percent in these playoffs, him being stuck on one goal is incomprehensible.
PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Lightning Game 5 Props
Our smoldering-hot prop run came to a close, but if you tailed for Game 4 you still finished ahead.
Because of Nathan MacKinnon‘s fluky goal, and the fact the game went to OT, we still finished well in the green for Game 4. The hockey season could end Friday if the Colorado Avalanche can polish off the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup final.
That means Friday could be our last chance to bet hockey props at least until the fall. So we better make it another good night.
Here’s a look at prop bets we like for Game 5.
All NHL playoff odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, June 23, at 10 a.m. ET.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 5 Props
Race to 4 Goals: Avalanche (+135)
Wager: 1 Unit
If you read our Avalanche vs Lightning Game 5 predictions, you know we think Colorado will come out on fire and try to put Tampa Bay away.
Colorado is averaging 4.44 goals per game on home ice in the playoffs and has surpassed the four-goal threshold in six of its nine home playoff games, including Games 1 and 2 of this series. Game 5 may be a slog, as the compact schedule, long travel, and four rounds of wear and tear have an impact on the players’ bodies.
But if the Avalanche are going to hoist the Cup on Friday night, they’ll probably score four goals in Game 5.
Lightning Under 2.5 Goals (-115)
Wager: 1 Unit
The Lightning have been valiant champions, resiliently battling to 11 straight playoff series wins, two straight championships, three straight Cup finals plus series wins against three of the best teams in the NHL. They polished off the league’s Nos. 4, 1, and 6 seeds as far as regular-season points.
But Tampa Bay is clearly running on fumes. They came out flying in Game 4, scoring just 36 seconds into the contest but looked completely gassed by the time Nazem Kadri scored the game-winner at 12:02 of overtime to seal a 3-1 series lead.
- Tail our best Avalanche vs Lightning Game 5 Parlays
The Lightning have spent large swaths of the series defending, and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been under siege, facing 33 more shots than his Colorado counterparts, Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz.
The Lightning are in uncharted territory, at least as far as this run is concerned. Tampa Bay will need a superhuman effort from Vasilevskiy to force a Game 6 and even still probably won’t get to three goals.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 5 Player Props
Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goalscorer (+145)
Wager: 1 Unit
MacKinnon is officially hot after his lucky goal, and he has been a force all playoffs, but especially in potential elimination games.
The dynamic Colorado center has five goals and one assist in four potential clinchers this season, including a four-point effort and hat trick in a Game 5 loss to the St. Louis Blues in the second round.
Cale Makar Anytime Goalscorer (+280)
Wager: 1 Unit
Makar, like MacKinnon, has come up huge in clinching games, including his memorable five-point game in Colorado’s Western Conference final sweep-clincher against the Edmonton Oilers.
He has two goals and seven assists in four potential clinching games in the playoffs, and we expect him to cap a fairy-tale-style Conn Smythe run with a goal in Colorado’s Cup clincher Friday.
PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Lightning Game 4 Props
Another game, another 4-for-4 prop-betting night in the playoffs.
If you tailed our prop picks for Stanley Cup final Game 3, you cashed in as we successfully pegged the Tampa Bay Lightning to win a race to 3, win in regulation, and for their star players to have big nights.
Now we’ll turn our attention to Game 4, where the series will pivot. Either the two-time defending champion Lightning will knot the best-of-7 series, or the Colorado Avalanche will move within a game of their first championship in 21 years.
Here are some props we like for Game 4.
All NHL playoff odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Tuesday, June 21, at 10 a.m. ET.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 4 Props
Winning Margin: Lightning By 1 Goal (+295)
Wager: 1 Unit
We’re stepping out on a limb with a couple of long-odds props for Game 4.
If you read my Avalanche vs Lightning Game 4 predictions, you know I think this game is going to be the best and most entertaining of the series.
The Lightning have been magical on home ice these playoffs, winning eight straight games at Amalie Arena. Predicting Tampa Bay to win a game by exactly one goal comes with long odds since the moneyline odds for each side are -110, making Game 4 a coin flip.
However, we love this prop given the fact we think there will be overtime in Game 4.
Will There Be Overtime: Yes (+300)
Wager: 1 Unit
If you agree the game will get to OT but aren’t sure the Lightning will be the team to win, then this is a prop for you.
Games 2 and 3 were extremely lopsided, but there was overtime in Game 1, and we’ll expect it again given each side’s desperation in the all-important Game 4.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 4 Player Props
Nathan MacKinnon Anytime Goalscorer (+165)
Wager: 1 Unit
Despite the fact Colorado has scored 13 goals in three games, MacKinnon hasn’t scored in this series, which makes him overdue to find the back of the net.
MacKinnon leads all Cup Final competitors in shots (14) through three games and had six in Game 3 alone. It’s only a matter of time until he beats Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Ondrej Palat Anytime Goalscorer (+245)
Wager: 1 Unit
If you’ve been reading our predictions, you know we’ve loved cashing in on Palat’s blistering-hot playoffs. Palat had two points in Tampa Bay’s win in Game 3, including his 10th goal of the postseason. He has seven goals in Tampa Bay’s nine playoff games at Amalie Arena and is riding a three-game multi-point streak at home.
If you’d prefer to take Palat to post at least one point in Game 4, take over 0.5 points at (-135) — again, those odds seem extremely favorable given the fact the Lightning’s top-line left wing has at least one point in every home playoff game this year.
But if you’re up for a little risk, we think Palat will score again, especially if linemate Nikita Kucherov plays. Kucherov was injured in the third period of Game 3, but we have a hard time believing he won’t be on the ice for Game 4.
PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Lightning Game 3 Props
Unfortunately, our prop heater died a nasty death in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup final. Although if you were one of the bettors who successfully nailed a 7-0 Colorado Avalanche win, we’re going to request tomorrow’s lottery numbers.
The series shifts to Amalie Arena for Game 3, where the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning will try to get off the mat for the third time in their four playoff series.
Here are a few prop bets we like for the all-important third game.
All NHL playoff odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Sunday, June 19, at 3 p.m. ET.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 3 Props
Race to 3 Goals: Lightning (+124)
Wager: 1 Unit
Tampa Bay has lost the race to three goals in each of the first two games but has scored three-plus six times over its seven-game home winning streak this postseason.
We tend to think three goals will be the minimum scored by the winning team in this series — especially given the fact the Avalanche have only been held to fewer than three goals in two of their 16 playoff games this year.
The Lightning should be able to better control the tempo on home ice, and Colorado is due a clunker on the road after winning each of its first seven road games.
If you think, as I do, that the Lightning will rebound to win Game 3, you’d have to think they’ll be the first to score three goals.
Lightning Win in 60 Min & Both Teams Score 2+ Goals (+285)
Wager: 1 Unit
We stated that the Avalanche have had no trouble scoring goals, and Tampa Bay has surpassed the two-goal threshold in every home game in the playoffs.
There could be some angst about this prop since it fails if the game gets to overtime. But we’d trust Tampa Bay to win a close game that ends in regulation.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 3 Player Props
Victor Hedman Over 0.5 Assists (+100)
Wager: 1 Unit
Hedman has been really struggling in the playoffs with just one assist and a -4 rating in two games so far. Still, on home ice, he can better control the game’s pace, and he has been an assist machine in these playoffs.
Of his 15 postseason points, Hedman has registered 13 helpers, and given the fact the Lightning were shut out in Game 2, we feel they are poised for a breakout game offensively, making it likely that Hedman will be heavily involved.
Ondrej Palat Over 0.5 Points (-130)
Wager: 1 Unit
If you’ve read our picks you know we have loved Palat’s playoffs, and deservedly so. We unsuccessful predicted that Tampa Bay’s top-line wing would record a point in Game 2, but he has only been held off the board in consecutive games twice in these playoffs.
Plus, if you think the Lightning will rebound and win Game 3, you’d have to think Palat will have either a goal or an assist.
PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Lightning Game 2 Props
Our prop heater carried over from the conference finals to Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final.
Three of the five props we suggested hit, including two of the three player props. If you tailed all five props picked, you finished ahead.
If you want to read our Avalanche vs Lightning Game 2 predictions you can do so — hint, we think Tampa Bay will even the series. Here are some props we like for Game 2.
All NHL playoff odds are current as of Thursday, June 16, at 10 a.m. ET at Caesars Sportsbook.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 2 Props
Avalanche: Under 3.5 Goals (-140)
Wager: 1 Unit
The Avalanche scored four in Game 1, but Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy surrendered a couple of uncharacteristically bad goals.
He has struggled in Game 1s in these playoffs (1-3, .884 save percentage) but has rebounded in Game 2s (2-1, .929 save percentage) and should do so again.
The Lightning will need to drive play more and control the tempo in order to win Game 2 and even the series. They can’t allow four goals and win.
Race to 3 Goals: Lightning (+170)
Wager: 1 Unit
Traditionally, we’d predict this game to end 2-1 in favor of Tampa Bay. If you’re anxious about a 2-1 game, take Tampa Bay to win the race to 2 at (+121).
But with the incredible skill on both sides, it’s hard to see either team being held to just one goal, even with Vasilevskiy in net for Tampa Bay. So three goals will probably be the magic number for the winning team — and in some cases, it’ll need to be four.
But as stated above, the Lightning will need to control the tempo in order to even the series, and they’re not likely to be able to outscore the Avalanche and win, especially in Denver.
If you believe, as we do, that this will be a long series, take the Lightning to win the race to three.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 2 Player Props
Steven Stamkos Anytime Goalscorer (+185)
Wager: 1 Unit
Steven Stamkos was held off the scoresheet in Game 1 despite his three shots on goal — the seventh game he was held without a point in these playoffs.
But the Lightning captain has nine points (5 goals, 4 assists) in games after he was held scoreless in the postseason, most recently his two-goal outburst in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference final against the New York Rangers.
Ondrej Palat Over 0.5 Points (-125)
Wager: 1 Unit
Ondrej Palat continues to be Tampa Bay’s unsung hero. He scored again in Game 1, his fourth goal in five games, and he has 12 points (6 goals, 6 assists) in the Lightning’s last 10 games.
Frankly, it is incomprehensible that his odds are not shorter given his point production — particularly since it is driven by playing on Tampa Bay’s top line with Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov.
Mash this until the odds diminish.
PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Lightning Game 1 Props
The Stanley Cup final is a prop bettors’ dream.
The Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning will square off in a series loaded with star power that makes it perfect for prop betting.
The Avalanche are led by Conn Smythe Trophy favorites Cale Makar (+175) and Nathan MacKinnon (+200), but Tampa Bay has won two straight championships and looks dangerous.
Here is a look at Game 1 prop bets that we like.
All NHL playoff odds are current as of Monday, June 13, at 11 a.m. ET at Caesars Sportsbook.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 1 Props
Race to 3 Goals: Avalanche (-118)
Wager: 1 Unit
If you’re feeling daring, take the Avalanche to win the race to four at (+150), but Colorado has scored at least three goals in all but one of its 12 playoff wins and has won the race to three in 12 of its 14 postseason games.
We think the Avalanche will roll in Game 1, even though we also predicted this to be a long series. If they win big, by a goal or more, they’ll absolutely be the first to score three or four goals.
Lightning: Under 2.5 Goals (+105)
Wager: 1 Unit
Tampa Bay has been outscored 12-6 in Game 1s during these playoffs, and we predicted a feeling-out process between the teams that should produce a low-scoring game even in spite of the high-end skill on the ice.
We also think Darcy Kuemper is going to shine in his first game back in goal since leaving Game 1 of the Western Conference final with an upper-body injury, assuming he’s healthy and ready to go.
Avalanche vs Lightning Game 1 Player Props
Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 Shots (-130)
Wager: 1 Unit
MacKinnon is Colorado’s gamebreaker, and he has put the Avalanche on his back in these playoffs. He averaged almost seven shots per game during the conference final and is putting about six on goal per game through 14 postseason contests.
Tampa Bay’s defense will undoubtedly look to limit MacKinnon, as well as his linemates Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin in the Cup final. But MacKinnon has made it a point to shoot from everywhere and will surely continue to fire the puck in Game 1.
Cale Makar Over 0.5 Plus/Minus (+140)
Wager: 1 Unit
It’s rare to get an opportunity to find a plus-money bet on a Makar offensive prop, so this is a true diamond in the rough worth mashing. Makar is plus-11 in the playoffs on the heels of a plus-48 regular season.
If you believe, as I do, that the Avalanche are going to win Game 1, Makar will almost certainly be on the plus-side of the ledger. He is plus-13 in 12 Colorado victories this postseason and has only finished as a minus once in an Avalanche victory, Game 4 of their Western Conference final sweep over the Edmonton Oilers.
Erik Cernak Over 1.5 Blocked Shots (-140)
Wager: 1 Unit
The Lightning are going to make a concerted effort to block shots while Colorado is set up in the offensive zone, especially if the Avalanche end up with multiple power plays in Game 1.
Cernak, along with his defense partner Ryan McDonagh, are two of the best shot blockers in the NHL. As the games have gotten more meaningful, each has thrown himself in the line of fire to keep pucks away from Andrei Vasilevskiy. Cernak had nine blocked shots in Tampa Bay’s final three conference-final games against the New York Rangers.
So why are we choosing the Cernak prop over McDonagh? Because Cernak’s over/under is a full shot lower than his D-partner’s, meaning his will hit if he can block two shots in Game 1 instead of needing McDonagh to stop three.
