Avalanche vs Lightning Predictions For Game 6 | Stanley Cup Finals Puck Line, Over/Under, & Series Bets

Posted: Jun 24, 2022Last updated: Jun 27, 2022

The Colorado Avalanche will have a second chance to clinch their first Stanley Cup championship in 21 years with a win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup final at Amalie Arena on Sunday.

Tampa Bay, the two-time defending champions, got off the mat and forced another game in Florida with a 3-2 win in Game 5 on Friday. Ondrej Palat scored the game-winning goal with just 6:22 in the third period to pay out for Lightning moneyline bettors (+150).

Andrei Vasilevskiy made 35 saves, helping Tampa Bay improve to 3-0 when facing elimination this season and winning on the road for just the second time in its past six games.

Avalanche defenseman and Conn Smythe Trophy favorite Cale Makar had another incredible game, scoring once and assisting on Valeri Nichushkin‘s goal. Colorado fell to 0-2 in home clinching games this postseason, its lone Achilles’ heel in these playoffs.

Here’s a look at how to bet Game 6.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, June 25 at 10 a.m. ET.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 6 Odds

  • Moneyline: Avalanche (-115) / Lightning (-105)
  • Puck Line: Avalanche -1.5 (+205) / Lightning +1.5 (-250)
  • Over/Under: Over 6 (+105) / Under 6 (-125)

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Avalanche vs Lightning Game 6 Prediction

In hindsight, we should’ve trusted our instincts and given the two-time defending champs more respect than to be blown away in five short games. The Avalanche are awesome, but so too are the Lightning, who have proven themselves a worthy champion by rebounding admirably and resiliently all postseason, including in the wildly entertaining game Friday.

But make no mistake, the NHL season will end Sunday, or it had better if you are an Avalanche fan. Colorado will want no part of a seventh game against the champs, especially given the fact we still haven’t seen Vasilevskiy’s best game in this series.


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Even though he was the No. 3 star in Game 5, his gaffe on Nichushkin’s goal left the door open for Colorado to win the Cup and end Tampa Bay’s bid at a third straight title.

Expect another spectacular game, one that may end in overtime. But also expect the night to end with Colorado captain Gabriel Landeskog hoisting the Cup over his head.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 6 Pick

Avalanche 3, Lightning 2

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 6 Best Bets

Avalanche Moneyline (-115)

Wager: 1 Unit

Colorado has lost just once on the road in these playoffs, Game 3 of the Cup final series, and has closed out each of its previous three series away from Ball Arena.

Avalanche fans shouldn’t feel slighted by the fact their team hasn’t clinched a series at Ball Arena. It’s really hard to clinch the Cup on home ice. Only one of the past six Cup champs, Tampa Bay a year ago, have clinched the trophy at home, and teams with the opportunity to clinch the Cup on home ice are just 1-4 in that span.

If Colorado wins Game 6, as we expect, that’ll be six out of seven winners to lift the trophy away from home, obviously including the bubble playoffs of 2020.


PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Lightning Game 5 Predictions

The Colorado Avalanche can claim their first Stanley Cup championship in 21 years with a win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup final on Friday at Ball Arena.

The Avalanche rallied twice to claim a 3-2 overtime win in Game 4 on Nazem Kadri‘s game-winning goal at 12:02 of the extra session that paid out for Colorado moneyline bettors (-110) and under bettors (-115). Colorado, which has two championships in its franchise’s NHL history, can clinch the trophy on home ice for the second time in its existence (2001).

The two-time defending champion Lightning have been resilient all playoffs, proven by their 2-0 record when facing elimination. But Tampa Bay may be finally running out of gas after 11 straight playoff series wins and three straight playoff runs into the summer and beyond — the 2020 run ended in September due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Here is a look at Game 5 in Denver.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, June 23 at 10 a.m. ET.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 5 Odds

  • Moneyline: Avalanche (+150) / Lightning (-175)
  • Puck Line: Avalanche -1.5 (+150) / Lightning +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: Over 6 (+100) / Under 6 (-120)

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 5 Prediction

Kadri has been such a lightning rod throughout the playoffs over his career, with killer suspensions and the thumb injury sustained in Game 3 of the Western Conference final that was supposed to end his season. Yet, he earned redemption by scoring the crucial overtime winner to send the Avs to the verge of a championship.

It wouldn’t stun me to see the Lightning rise and steal Game 5, particularly since the hockey world believes this series is over.

The Lightning have been extremely hard to kill in the playoffs. They trailed 3-2 in their first-round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs and in the third period of Game 6, and were behind 2-0 to the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference final and in Game 3 of that series.

But Colorado has dominated the NHL all season, particularly on home ice. The Avs are 7-2 in Denver in the playoffs and posted a 32-5-4 regular-season mark at Ball Arena that included an 18-game home win streak and 22-game point streak in Denver too.

The point is, I could see Tampa Bay forcing the whole hockey world to schlep back to Florida for a Game 6. But I’m sure not going to bet on it.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 5 Pick

Avalanche 4, Lightning 2

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 5 Best Bets

Avalanche -1.5 Puck Line (+150)

Wager: 1 Unit

Here’s how we see Game 5 playing out: Colorado scores the first two. Tampa Bay gets it within one. Colorado scores again. Tampa Bay makes it interesting with a goal in the third period, then pushes hard for the equalizer. Colorado withstands the barrage and scores an empty-net goal to seal the Cup.

Then, Cale Makar is named Conn Smythe Trophy winner, and Kadri is the veteran player that captain Gabriel Landeskog hands the Cup to after receiving it from NHL commissioner Gary Bettman.


PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Lightning Game 4 Predictions

The Tampa Bay Lightning can even the Stanley Cup Final with a win over the Colorado Avalanche in Game 4 of the best-of-seven series in Tampa on Wednesday.

The Lightning, who lost the first two games, roared back with a 6-2 win in Game 3 that paid out for puck-line bettors (+220) and Over bettors (+100). Six different Lightning players scored goals, and captain Steven Stamkos had a goal and an assist.

Colorado lost a road game for the first time in the playoffs, falling to 7-1 away from Ball Arena. Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog scored a pair of power-play goals in defeat.

The series will pivot in Game 4. Here’s a look at how to bet on the game Wednesday at Amalie Arena.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Tuesday, June 21 at 9 a.m. ET.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 4 Odds

  • Moneyline: Avalanche (-110) / Lightning (-110)
  • Puck Line: Avalanche +1.5 (-270) / Lightning -1.5 (+220)
  • Over/Under: Over 6 (-105) / Under 6 (-115)

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 4 Prediction

The Avalanche have looked like the better team for much of this series, outside of the second period in Games 1 and 3. Yet, this has a feel very much like the Lightning’s last stand.

Tampa Bay has been hampered by injuries — star forward Nikita Kucherov was injured on a dangerous hit in the third period and may not play in Game 4, top-line center Brayden Point could not suit up for Game 3, and third-line forwards Nick Paul and Corey Perry were each injured, though each returned in Game 3 — yet continues to grind through its third straight deep postseason run.

The Avalanche were due for a road clunker, with goalie Darcy Kuemper stopping just 17 of 22 shots in the Game 3 loss. Despite the fact that Coach Jared Bednar is playing coy, we expect Kuemper to be the goalie again for Game 4 and for the Avalanche to put forth a tighter, more spirited effort to try and take a 3-1 lead.

Still, this series has a champs-last-stand vibe, especially since the Lightning rallied again after surrendering the first goal in Game 3. We picked Colorado in 7, and if this series is going the distance, Tampa Bay should hold serve and win at home Wednesday.

Game 4 could be the most entertaining game of the series.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 4 Pick

Lightning 4, Avalanche 3 (OT)

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 4 Best Bets

Lightning Moneyline (-110)

Wager: 1 Unit

The odds dictate this game is a coin flip, but the Lightning are rolling on home ice. They are 8-1 at Amalie Arena and have won eight straight after a 5-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 3 of their first-round series. Tampa Bay has outscored its opponents 35-18 — an average of 3.9-2 — on home ice in the postseason.

Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a completely different goalie in home games too in these playoffs. He boasts a .947 save percentage, 1.73 goals-against average, and 7.53 goals-saved above average in nine games at Amalie Arena while sporting a ghastly .896 save percentage, 3.29 goals-against average, and -2.14 GSAA in 11 road games, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Over 6 Goals (-105)

Wager: 1 Unit

We’re tired of picking pushes and Under bets. The Over is 3-0 in this series, and the Lightning proved they can score too with nine goals in three games — despite being shut out in Game 2.

We said the entertainment value could be off the charts for Game 4. Might as well bet on it to be, too, especially since Over odds are the more lucrative wager anyway.


PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Lightning Game 3 Predictions

The Colorado Avalanche can move within a game of their first Stanley Cup championship in 21 years with a win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup final Monday.

Colorado, which routed Tampa Bay 7-0 in Game 2 on Saturday to take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series, is 7-0 on the road in the playoffs and has won seven straight playoff games. Defenseman Cale Makar and forward Valeri Nichushkin each scored twice in the Avalanche’s blowout win that paid out both for Over bettors (-110) and puck-line gamblers (+175).

Tampa Bay was shut out for just the second time in the playoffs. The Lightning, who have won the past two Stanley Cup championships, are behind 2-0 for the second straight series.

Here’s a look at Game 3, which will be played at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Sunday, June 19 at 3 p.m. ET.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 3 Odds

  • Moneyline: Avalanche (-110) / Lightning (-110)
  • Puck Line: Avalanche +1.5 (-270) / Lightning -1.5 (+220)
  • Over/Under: Over 6 (+100) / Under 6 (-120)

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 3 Prediction

The Lightning have made a living getting off the deck in these playoffs but have been largely overmatched over the first two games of the series. Their superhero goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy looked downright pedestrian in stopping just 23 of 30 shots on goal Saturday.

Defenseman Victor Hedman was a team-worst -3, and Tampa Bay’s top line of Ondrej Palat, Steven Stamkos, and Nikita Kucherov combined for just one shot on goal.

Still, Tampa Bay has been awesome at home in the playoffs, boasting a seven-game winning streak. Vasilevskiy has a .947 save percentage on home ice this postseason. The Lightning have outscored their opponents 29-16 in those nine games.

If the Avalanche win Game 3, the series will effectively be over. We tend to think the Lightning have more pride than to get swept — they’ve certainly shown the heart of a champion in these playoffs. Their reign as champs may be dwindling, but we think they’ll find a way to win Game 3.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 3 Pick

Lightning 4, Avalanche 2

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 3 Best Bets

Lightning Moneyline (-110)

Wager: 1 Unit

The Lightning may be running out of gas after 11 straight playoff series wins, but they have been resilient all postseason long. They rallied from 3-2 down in both their first-round series and the third period of Game 6 against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

They trailed 2-0 in both their conference-final series and Game 3 against the New York Rangers. They persevered in each series.

We sincerely hope this won’t be a sweep, and given Tampa Bay’s resilience all postseason a four-game series seems unlikely too. Bet Tampa Bay to win Game 3.


PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Lightning Game 2 Predictions

The Colorado Avalanche will try to put the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning in a deep hole in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup final on Saturday in Denver.

The Lightning rallied from a 3-1 first-period deficit to force overtime, but the Avalanche took the wildly entertaining Game 1 4-3 on Andre Burakovsky‘s goal at 1:23 of overtime that paid out for Over bettors (-110).

Andrei Vasilevskiy made 34 saves for Tampa Bay but allowed a couple of uncharacteristically bad goals in the first period. The Lightning are behind 1-0 for the third time in these playoffs.

Here’s a look at Game 2.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, June 16 at 10 a.m. ET.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 2 Odds

  • Moneyline: Avalanche (-160) / Lightning (+140)
  • Puck Line: Avalanche -1.5 (+175) / Lightning +1.5 (-210)
  • Over/Under: Over 6 (-110) / Under 6 (-110)

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 2 Prediction

The Avalanche appeared poised to run away and hide from the Lightning, cashing in on three first-period goals, including a 5-on-3 power-play goal from Artturi Lehkonen that made it 3-1 late in the frame.

Still, Tampa Bay, as it’s done all season, was resilient and rallied to force overtime before the puck landed on Burakovsky’s stick early in OT.

The Lightning came to Denver to get a split, and they have to like their chances in Game 2. They were vastly outplayed from the opening puck drop, and Vasilevskiy surrendered two extremely bad goals to Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin before settling in, yet were still a shot away from stealing Game 1.

If you believe, as I do, that this will be a long series, you’d have to think Tampa Bay will win Game 2.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 2 Pick

Lightning 3, Avalanche 2

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 2 Best Bets

Lightning Moneyline (+140)

Wager: 1 Unit

Tampa Bay is 4-1 after losing in these playoffs and is 19-1 in its last 20 playoff games following a defeat. This should be an epic Cup final series, but if the Lightning lose it will be in danger of being over.

We think the Lightning, as they’ve done all playoffs, will be resilient and even the series Saturday.

Under 6 Goals (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The skill in this series is on another level, and no one should complain if we get a series full of 4-3 games.

But the Lightning know how to win games this time of the year, based on their consecutive Cup wins, and Lightning coach Jon Cooper knows allowing three-plus goals is not going to cut it. Plus, we have to think that Vasilevskiy is poised for a bounce-back game.

If Tampa Bay is going to win, the under is going to have to hit.


PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Lightning Game 1 Predictions

The NHL finally got a dream Stanley Cup final matchup as its model franchise, the Tampa Bay Lightning, will square off against the star-laden Colorado Avalanche in Game 1 on Wednesday in Denver.

The Avalanche, the top seed in the Western Conference, will have an eight-day break after sweeping Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference final.

Colorado is smoldering hot entering the final with a 12-2 record in the playoffs and can tie the modern record for fewest playoff games played of any Cup winner if it can sweep Tampa Bay. The 1988 Oilers went 16-2 in the postseason en route to winning the Cup that year.

But to finally scale the mountain and win its first Cup since 2001, Colorado will need to unseat the two-time defending champion Lightning, who roared back from down 2-0 to tame the upstart New York Rangers in six games in the Eastern Conference final.

Here’s a look at Game 1.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Monday, June 13 at 11 a.m. ET.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 1 Odds

  • Moneyline: Avalanche (-165) / Lightning (+135)
  • Puck Line: Avalanche -1.5 (+150) / Lightning +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: Over 6 (-110) / Under 6 (-110)

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 1 Prediction

The Lightning will enter as the underdog for the first time in their three consecutive Cup final appearances, yet will also ride a four-game win streak into the championship round. Tampa Bay is 12-5 in the playoffs but has won 10 of its past 12 games after falling behind 3-2 to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round.

The Lightning have persevered without top-line center Brayden Point, who hasn’t played since Game 7 of their series against Toronto. Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper called Point “highly probable" to play at some point during the Cup final, but may not dress again for Game 1.

Colorado may be rusty after its sweep, however, it also needed the break. Goalie Darcy Kuemper didn’t play in Colorado’s final three conference-final games while nursing an upper-body injury but is healthy for the championship round. Avalanche coach Jared Bednar will have a decision between the veteran and his backup, Pavel Francouz, who posted a .908 save percentage and a shutout in four conference-final games.

So which side has the edge in Game 1? We’ll take the home team who should be energized after the break and by its home crowd. Plus, the Lightning are just 1-2 in Game 1s this postseason and have been outscored 12-6 in those games.

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 1 Pick

Avalanche 4, Lightning 1

Avalanche vs Lightning Game 1 Best Bets

Under 6 Goals (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Avalanche are scoring at an incredible pace. They netted 22 goals in four games against the Oilers, including a 6-5 comeback overtime win in Game 4.

However, the Cup final should be more of a grind, especially with the players Tampa Bay has. The Lightning have figured out how to control the pace through 11 straight playoff series wins. If Colorado is going to win four of seven, it’ll have to find a way to win that way.

I think the Avalanche are capable, since they proved they can grind in their second-round series against the St. Louis Blues. They have defenseman Cale Makar, who seems able to control the tempo to fit the game the way defenseman Victor Hedman does for the Lightning.

Plus, there should be a feeling-out period early in Game 1 where each side determines what pace the game and series should be.

Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has been playing great of late, and barring rust from Kuemper, Game 1 should be a low-scoring affair.

Avalanche -1.5 Puck Line (+150)

Wager: 0.5 Units

The Lightning have had their doors blown off in Game 1 of two of their three series, with their only win so far coming in a game Vasilevskiy stole — he stopped 33-of-34 against the Florida Panthers in Game 1.

Plus, Colorado is 3-0 in Game 1s and have covered the puck line in two of those — outscoring the opposition 18-10 in those three games. I wouldn’t be stunned if Game 1 is tight or decided in OT, but I tend to think if Colorado wins it’ll be by more than a goal.


Avalanche vs Lightning Series Winner Odds

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Monday, June 13 at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Avalanche (-190)
  • Lightning (+155)

Avalanche vs Lightning Series Prediction

The Avalanche are back in the Cup final for the first time in 21 years, yet they have been building to this level for some time. Colorado lost in the second round each of the last three years before finally breaking through and advancing through the Western Conference bracket.

Tampa Bay cooled Carey Price and the red-hot Montreal Canadiens in a strange Cup final a year ago. It won over the upstart Dallas Stars in the bubble two years ago. But this year, the Lightning may finally meet their match in the championship round. Tampa Bay has proven its championship mettle by scaling a gauntlet of Eastern Conference opponents with no shortage of adversity.

Still, the Avalanche are a machine and probably won’t let the Lightning get up if they can put them on the mat. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 in their first-round series and 3-2 in Game 6 before Tampa Bay rallied. The Rangers were up 2-0 in the conference final, and 2-0 in Game 3, before the Lightning struck back to win the series. Colorado shouldn’t be as forgiving.

Still, this series should be a classic. With the skill, star-power and two exceptional fan bases, it is a series the NHL and its fans should be drooling over. I think it’ll live up to the hype.

Avalanche vs Lightning Series Pick

Avalanche in 7

Avalanche vs Lightning Series Best Bets

Lightning +1.5 Games (-125)

WAGER: 1 Unit

It’s possible Colorado rolls through the Cup final in five games, but it is highly unlikely that the Avalanche will win the Cup at Amalie Arena, where the Lightning are 7-1 and have won seven straight games.

If you think the Lightning will win the Cup take them at (+155) to win the series. But this is a nice hedge too.

Author

Pat Pickens

Pat Pickens is a seasoned sportswriter who has covered the NHL since 2013 for various websites, including The New York Times, NHL.com, Sportsnet.ca, USA Today, the Associated Press and many others. His debut book, titled "The Whalers" about the history of the NHL's Hartford Whalers, was released in October 2021. His greatest successful wager was an LA Kings puck-line bet (+200) in Game 1 of the 2012 Western Conference Final.

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