I am looking to rebound from a down week with some highlighted wagers on the three-game NFL Thanksgiving schedule. Player prop bets had been working out well enough until Week 11, as I had hit on 11 of 18 in the previous three weeks.
The Raiders-Broncos sweat was a fun one, though, as I projected the two teams to finish Under 38.5 points and the final total was 38. The NFL Week 12 Thursday schedule will lead to increased prop excitement as our attention will be more sharply focused on a three-game Thanksgiving Day NFL trio of matchups.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL Props Record: 46-88 (-51.5 units)
Before reading Scott’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Thanksgiving and Week 12 player prop:
NFL Thanksgiving Player Props
NFL Week 12 odds used for these Turkey Day prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 23.
Jakobi Meyers: Over 4.5 Receptions (+115) at Vikings
WAGER: 2 Units
Mac Jones is struggling, but Meyers can still get past this projected total, as Minnesota has not fashioned an 8-2 record based on its pass defense. The Vikings have allowed the most receptions to wide receivers over the past four weeks, and the third-most receptions to the position overall in 2022.
Last week, Meyers hauled in four passes against the Jets, who are fourth-best in catches allowed to WRs. In his previous two games, Meyers totaled 14 receptions on 19 targets.
This is my favorite NFL Thanksgiving prediction among Thursday’s player props.
Ezekiel Elliott: Anytime TD Scorer (-120) vs Giants
WAGER: 2 Units
After watching Jamaal Williams coast into the end zone three times last week, consider this one of the strongest prop plays of the day. For those who are feeling even more daring, try Elliott to score 2+ TDs at +475.
New York may not allow Elliott an easy path to more than one rushing TD after getting embarrassed last week, but he does have five rushing TDs in his past three games, making this wager as a prime Week 12 NFL bet.
Stefon Diggs: 100 + Receiving Yards (-110) at Lions
WAGER: 1.5 Units
You can go with Diggs among the standard NFL prop picks for Over 89.5 at -115, but given the matchup, it makes sense to opt for the alternate prop here. Diggs should fly past the projected number against a defense that has allowed the most receiving yards to WRs over the last four weeks.
The Lions have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to WRs over the full season, and Diggs has cleared the 100-yard bar four times in his past six games.
NFL Thanksgiving Prop Bets
Giants vs Cowboys: DAL Under 27.5 Points (-110)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Cowboys have strutted past this projected total in their past three games, but this is a highly important divisional matchup in which the points will be harder to earn.
The Lions scored a season-high 31 points vs New York last week, but the Giants had not allowed more than 27 points in any of their previous nine games. I am betting that New York will tighten up more on defense after such a concerning loss to an inferior opponent.
Bills vs Lions: BUF 21-30 Total Points Band (+185)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Detroit’s opponents have landed in or within one point of this projected scoring range in its last three losses and in four of the past six overall. Buffalo has scored inside or within one point of the band in three of its past four games.
The Lions have allowed a league-high 28.2 points per game this season. Buffalo has averaged 28.1, second-best in the league, but with a projected game total of 54.5 points and the Detroit defense not allowing over 30 points in the last three games, I am hesitant to move into the 31-40 band.
Patriots vs Vikings: MIN Over 10.5 1st Half Points (+105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
Minnesota averages 11.6 points per game in the first half of all games, and the Vikings average 13.8 points per game in the first half of home games. New England allows 8.0 first-half points per game, but I see the Vikings coming out strong enough in the first half, in an effort to put a terrible loss behind them quickly.
It should not be difficult for Minnesota to score at least one TD while also notching a field goal or two, especially if the Vikings’ defense can get a turnover against Jones (seven interceptions in seven games).
