NFL Survivor Week 16 Rankings

Last Updated: Dec 20, 2023

For those who have made it this far in their NFL survivor pools, there is no turning back. With a few weeks remaining, picking a winner is getting harder.

A handful of teams are hovering around a double-digit favorite, so there is no shortage of options to choose from. But which teams are the right ones, and which should be avoided?

Here’s a breakdown of the NFL Week 16 odds with an eye on staying alive.

Survivor Week 16 Best Picks

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers

It’s hard to put into words just how horrendous last week was for the Los Angeles Chargers, but let’s try.

The blowout loss to the Las Vegas Raiders resulted in the firings of both head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco. And with QB Justin Herbert out for the year, there is no immediate help in sight. Brutal.

The Buffalo Bills essentially enjoyed the opposite result. Buffalo demolished the Dallas Cowboys at home thanks to a healthy dose of defense and running back James Cook.

Although the Bills will now hit the road, the Chargers have all but quit. Despite a handful of clunkers earlier in the year, Buffalo is primed for a blowout win.

Use our NFL Eliminator tips to place bets with the top NFL odds:

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Like the Bills, the 2023 season hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for the Kansas City Chiefs. From uninspired play to weird calls, this season has felt very un-Kansas City-like at times.

For as up and down as it has been, this feels like a get-right game. KC has played three of its last four games on the road, and the lone home game came against the surging Bills.

While Las Vegas was superb against the Chargers last week, it’s hard to take much from that performance given the way Los Angeles looked.

Granted, the Raiders deserve some credit, but a road trip in the cold is likely to produce much different results.

It’s been a minute since we’ve seen vintage Patrick Mahomes, although this feels like a spot for him to appear. Chiefs by plenty.

Survivor Week 16 Rankings Grid

1Dallas Cowboys@ Washington CommandersA+
2Tampa Bay Buccaneers@ Carolina PanthersA
3Jacksonville Jaguars@ Tennessee TitansA
4Cincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsA-
5Philadelphia Eagles@ New York GiantsA-
6Pittsburgh Steelers@ Baltimore RavensB+
7New Orleans SaintsAtlanta FalconsB+
8Detroit LionsMinnesota VikingsB+
9Los Angeles ChargersKansas City ChiefsB
10Buffalo Bills@ Miami DolphinsB
11Green Bay PackersChicago BearsB
12Seattle Seahawks@ Arizona CardinalsB
13San Francisco 49ersLos Angeles RamsB
14Denver Broncos@ Las Vegas RaidersB_
15Indianapolis ColtsHouston TexansB-
16New England PatriotsNew York JetsB-
17New York Jets@ New England PatriotsB-
18Houston Texans@ Indianapolis ColtsB-
19Las Vegas RaidersDenver Broncos
20Los Angeles Rams@ San Francisco 49ersC+
21Arizona CardinalsSeattle SeahawksC+
22Chicago Bears@ Green Bay PackersC+
23Miami DolphinsBuffalo BillsC+
24Kansas City Chiefs@ Los Angeles ChargersC
25Minnesota Vikings@ Detroit LionsC
26Atlanta Falcons@ New Orleans SaintsC-
27Baltimore RavensPittsburgh SteelersD+
28New York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesD
29Cleveland Browns@ Cincinnati BengalsD
30Tennessee TitansJacksonville JaguarsD-
31Carolina PanthersTampa Bay BuccaneersD-
32Washington CommandersDallas CowboysF

Survivor Week 16 Sleeper

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

Against the Detroit Lions, the Denver Broncos stood no chance. Denver, which has played its way back into contention after a slow start, looked out of sorts against a superior team on the road.

A week later, however, Denver is a reasonable survivor option against a team vying for a top-two NFL Draft pick.

The New England Patriots’ offense has looked somewhat improved over the past two weeks – granted, this team has eclipsed the 20-point mark only twice this year. While backup QB Bailey Zappe has provided a spark, it’s likely not enough.

At home, Denver is likely to put forth a much better, cleaner performance than the one just witnessed. Don’t hesitate to back them accordingly.

Survivor Week 16 Team to Save for the Future

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There are a lot of things working against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. There are also a lot of things working for them in the weeks ahead. (More on that in a moment.)

For now, Jacksonville enters a unique spot. The performance on Sunday night against the Baltimore Ravens wasn’t exactly encouraging. While the Jaguars showed some life in the second half, a handful of Trevor Lawrence turnovers once again loomed large.

The good news? Help is coming.

The Jags will play the Carolina Panthers at home next week, and it promises to be one of the larger point spreads of the week regardless of how this weekend goes.

Jacksonville isn’t a bad team. But this isn’t the week to back them.

Survivor Week 16 Chalk Team That Could Lose

Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans

Monday night’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles was unquestionably a moment for the Seattle Seahawks to savor. It was also a great deal of fun to watch.

QB Drew Lock, thrown into the game after an injury to Geno Smith, delivered one of the biggest throws of his life and the NFL season to win the game with seconds remaining.

With Smith’s health still a bit questionable and a long road trip now on the docket, however, Seattle might be in a tricky spot.

And in terms of letdowns, traveling thousands of miles after a huge win to play the Titans has all the ingredients of one. While the Tennessee Titans have just five wins, they have won two of the last four games, and both losses came by a combined six points.

All of this makes for a bit of a danger zone for the chalk, which should be avoided at all costs.


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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