For those who have made it this far in their NFL survivor pools, there is no turning back. With a few weeks remaining, picking a winner is getting harder.
A handful of teams are hovering around a double-digit favorite, so there is no shortage of options to choose from. But which teams are the right ones, and which should be avoided?
Here’s a breakdown of the NFL Week 16 odds with an eye on staying alive.
Survivor Week 16 Best Picks
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers
It’s hard to put into words just how horrendous last week was for the Los Angeles Chargers, but let’s try.
The blowout loss to the Las Vegas Raiders resulted in the firings of both head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco. And with QB Justin Herbert out for the year, there is no immediate help in sight. Brutal.
The Buffalo Bills essentially enjoyed the opposite result. Buffalo demolished the Dallas Cowboys at home thanks to a healthy dose of defense and running back James Cook.
Although the Bills will now hit the road, the Chargers have all but quit. Despite a handful of clunkers earlier in the year, Buffalo is primed for a blowout win.
Use our NFL Eliminator tips to place bets with the top NFL odds:
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
Like the Bills, the 2023 season hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for the Kansas City Chiefs. From uninspired play to weird calls, this season has felt very un-Kansas City-like at times.
For as up and down as it has been, this feels like a get-right game. KC has played three of its last four games on the road, and the lone home game came against the surging Bills.
While Las Vegas was superb against the Chargers last week, it’s hard to take much from that performance given the way Los Angeles looked.
Granted, the Raiders deserve some credit, but a road trip in the cold is likely to produce much different results.
It’s been a minute since we’ve seen vintage Patrick Mahomes, although this feels like a spot for him to appear. Chiefs by plenty.
Survivor Week 16 Rankings Grid
| Rk | Team | Grade | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | @ Washington Commanders | A+ |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | @ Carolina Panthers | A |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | @ Tennessee Titans | A |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | A- |
| 5 | Philadelphia Eagles | @ New York Giants | A- |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | @ Baltimore Ravens | B+ |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons | B+ |
| 8 | Detroit Lions | Minnesota Vikings | B+ |
| 9 | Los Angeles Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs | B |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | @ Miami Dolphins | B |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | B |
| 12 | Seattle Seahawks | @ Arizona Cardinals | B |
| 13 | San Francisco 49ers | Los Angeles Rams | B |
| 14 | Denver Broncos | @ Las Vegas Raiders | B_ |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans | B- |
| 16 | New England Patriots | New York Jets | B- |
| 17 | New York Jets | @ New England Patriots | B- |
| 18 | Houston Texans | @ Indianapolis Colts | B- |
| 19 | Las Vegas Raiders | Denver Broncos | |
| 20 | Los Angeles Rams | @ San Francisco 49ers | C+ |
| 21 | Arizona Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks | C+ |
| 22 | Chicago Bears | @ Green Bay Packers | C+ |
| 23 | Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills | C+ |
| 24 | Kansas City Chiefs | @ Los Angeles Chargers | C |
| 25 | Minnesota Vikings | @ Detroit Lions | C |
| 26 | Atlanta Falcons | @ New Orleans Saints | C- |
| 27 | Baltimore Ravens | Pittsburgh Steelers | D+ |
| 28 | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | D |
| 29 | Cleveland Browns | @ Cincinnati Bengals | D |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville Jaguars | D- |
| 31 | Carolina Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | D- |
| 32 | Washington Commanders | Dallas Cowboys | F |
Survivor Week 16 Sleeper
Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
Against the Detroit Lions, the Denver Broncos stood no chance. Denver, which has played its way back into contention after a slow start, looked out of sorts against a superior team on the road.
A week later, however, Denver is a reasonable survivor option against a team vying for a top-two NFL Draft pick.
The New England Patriots’ offense has looked somewhat improved over the past two weeks – granted, this team has eclipsed the 20-point mark only twice this year. While backup QB Bailey Zappe has provided a spark, it’s likely not enough.
At home, Denver is likely to put forth a much better, cleaner performance than the one just witnessed. Don’t hesitate to back them accordingly.
Survivor Week 16 Team to Save for the Future
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There are a lot of things working against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. There are also a lot of things working for them in the weeks ahead. (More on that in a moment.)
For now, Jacksonville enters a unique spot. The performance on Sunday night against the Baltimore Ravens wasn’t exactly encouraging. While the Jaguars showed some life in the second half, a handful of Trevor Lawrence turnovers once again loomed large.
The good news? Help is coming.
The Jags will play the Carolina Panthers at home next week, and it promises to be one of the larger point spreads of the week regardless of how this weekend goes.
Jacksonville isn’t a bad team. But this isn’t the week to back them.
Survivor Week 16 Chalk Team That Could Lose
Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans
Monday night’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles was unquestionably a moment for the Seattle Seahawks to savor. It was also a great deal of fun to watch.
QB Drew Lock, thrown into the game after an injury to Geno Smith, delivered one of the biggest throws of his life and the NFL season to win the game with seconds remaining.
With Smith’s health still a bit questionable and a long road trip now on the docket, however, Seattle might be in a tricky spot.
And in terms of letdowns, traveling thousands of miles after a huge win to play the Titans has all the ingredients of one. While the Tennessee Titans have just five wins, they have won two of the last four games, and both losses came by a combined six points.
All of this makes for a bit of a danger zone for the chalk, which should be avoided at all costs.
