One of the most important games on the Week 16 NFL schedule will be the primetime game on Sunday night, as the Baltimore Ravens (7-7) host the New England Patriots (11-3).
The Ravens enter Week 16 a game behind the Steelers in the AFC North, and whether Pittsburgh wins this week or not, this feels like a must-win game for Baltimore in its home finale.
As for the Patriots, last week’s loss to the Bills leaves them just one game ahead of Buffalo in the AFC East, yet just one game behind the Broncos for the top seed in the AFC.
Keep reading to see the latest Patriots vs Ravens odds and some of my best bets and SNF predictions for Week 16.
Updated SNF Odds Comparison
The oddsmakers are giving the benefit of the doubt to the inconsistent Ravens, who are three-point home favorites with a moneyline of -162. Meanwhile, New England’s moneyline is +136, while the over/under is set at an ambitious 48.5 points.
All NFL odds referenced for these SNF Week 16 predictions are current as of Thursday, Dec. 18, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
SNF Implied Scores & Team Totals
Ravens 25.75, Patriots 22.75
It’s a little surprising to see the Ravens favored in this game since they are just 3-5 at home, including a mere 2-3 in home games that Lamar Jackson has started.
One can only assume that oddsmakers are buying into the perception that New England’s favorable schedule has contributed to the team’s 11 wins and top-10 defense.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Sunday Night Football Predictions
SNF Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Ravens 21
Despite all of the attention that New England’s weak schedule has gotten, it’s worth noting that the Ravens have just one win this season against a team that currently has a winning record.
Even at home, they haven’t been able to take care of business, including a couple of recent home losses to the Bengals and Steelers.
As a passer, Lamar Jackson has been subpar, completing fewer than 60% of his passes in five of his last six games and throwing for less than 200 yards in four of his previous six outings.
- Sign up for The Game Day Newsletter to get the latest bet tips and sportsbook promos.
Despite a poor second half against Josh Allen and the Bills last week, the New England defense has proved its worth, holding nine of 14 opponents to 20 points or less.
Meanwhile, last week’s shutout win over the Bengals looks like an aberration for the Baltimore defense, as teams that currently have a winning record have averaged 31.2 points per game against the Ravens.
Against quality opponents, the Ravens haven’t been able to rely on their defense or Jackson to lead them to wins, giving the Patriots a chance to bounce back with a road victory.
Sunday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Sunday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Patriots vs Ravens best bets.
- The Ravens are 5-9 against the spread this season, including 1-4 in their last five games.
- The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread on the road this season, including straight-up victories in the two games they’ve been road underdogs.
- Five of Baltimore’s last seven games have stayed under the point total.
Sunday Night Football Best Bets
SNF Over/Under Pick: Patriots @ Ravens Under 48.5 Points (-115)
Both teams have hit the over more times than not this season. However, the Ravens are a run-heavy team, which will drain the clock and limit each team’s possessions.
The Patriots will also be happy to run the ball after TreVeyon Henderson’s success last week.
Plus, with neither team having a propensity for creating big plays in the passing game, this game may not be the shootout the over/under of 48.5 points suggests.
SNF Pick Against the Spread: Patriots +3 (-115) @ Ravens
Last week’s win over the Bengals doesn’t suddenly make the Ravens a reliable team.
They are just 3-5 at home this season, with two of those wins coming against the Browns and Jets. That’s not the type of team that can be trusted as a home favorite, especially against an 11-3 New England team.
Even if the Patriots haven’t played the toughest schedule, their 6-0 road record this season makes them my NFL pick of the day.
Sunday Night Football Prop Bet
SNF Prop Bet: Derrick Henry Longest Rush Under 18.5 Yards (-115)
Henry is usually a safe bet to break tackles and burst out for a long run at least once in a game. But even though he’s hit this bet in four of his last five games, we’re going to fade his longest rush this week.
The Patriots have allowed just five rushing plays of 20 yards or more all season, so they keep backs bottled up.
Even with James Cook gaining over 100 yards against them last week, he didn’t have a rush longer than 12 yards, so look for Henry to have a similar game against the New England defense.
Sunday Night Football Parlay
Best SNF Same-Game Parlay (+455)
- Patriots ML (+136)
- Lamar Jackson: Under 31.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
- Drake Maye: Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-106)
Coming off a loss last week, the Patriots will respond positively and maintain their unbeaten road record this season against an unreliable Baltimore team.
One key to victory will be containing Lamar Jackson’s legs, which is plausible since Jackson has only surpassed 30 rushing yards once in his last five games.
Likewise, the Patriots will focus on their rushing attack, limiting Maye to 31 or fewer pass attempts, which has been the case in 10 of the team’s 14 games.
Lock in these three plays for your best Sunday Night Football parlay.
