The Patriots (2-2) take on the Bills (4-0) in an AFC East divisional clash on Week 5 Sunday Night Football.
New England is coming off a blowout victory over the Panthers. Drake Maye continues to look like he’s taking the next step towards becoming a star quarterback in this league. Buffalo was able to handily dispose of the lowly Saints, as they continue to exploit an extremely soft schedule.
On this page, we’ll dive into the Patriots vs Bills matchups, including best bets and predictions for this Week 5 Sunday Night Football game.
Updated SNF Odds Comparison
The Bills are heavy home favorites, getting past the key number of seven, which means that Patriots bettors will be victorious even if they lose by a touchdown. While Buffalo has looked terrific so far, we have to acknowledge that they’ve had the easiest schedule in the NFL.
All NFL odds used for these Sunday Night Football predictions are current as of Friday, Oct. 3, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
SNF Implied Scores & Team Totals
Bills 29, Patriots 20.5
The Bills are projected to take care of business in a home game against their biggest threats in the division.
Take a look at the best Sunday Night Football odds for the 2025 NFL season.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Sunday Night Football Predictions
SNF Score Prediction: Bills 28, Patriots 24
This feels like a statement game for the Patriots. That’s not to say that I think they’ll win outright, but I feel confident that they’ll be able to keep it close against the Bills.
The main reason for this is how impressive Maye has been so far. The second-year signal-caller has a 109.4 quarterback rating on the season, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 98 yards and two scores on the ground.
We saw the Bills have a bit of a scare on Week 3 Thursday Night Football against another division rival in the Dolphins. Don’t be surprised to see something similar here.
Remember, Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel is no stranger to pulling off upsets, having had his team consistently overachieving while in Tennessee.
Sunday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these bet tips and trends in mind before making your Sunday Night Football bets.
- Maye is in the middle of a breakout season.
- The Bills have benefited from a soft schedule.
- Top cornerback Christian Gonzalez is back for the Patriots.
Sunday Night Football Best Bets
SNF Over/Under Pick: Patriots @ Bills Over 49.5 Points (-115)
The Patriots have quietly been able to pour on points this season, putting up 42 against the Panthers and 33 vs the Dolphins. The Bills have similarly scored at a high rate, scoring 30+ points in each of their four games, including 41 against the Ravens.
With both Maye and Josh Allen playing at such a high level, the safer move here would be to just ride with the Over, even at a high number like 49.5 points.
Take the Over in our best NFL bet today.
MNF Pick Against the Spread: Patriots +8.5 (-115) at Bills
This feels like too many points against the Patriots. It feels like the market hasn’t adjusted to Maye’s breakout season, which has this team looking like playoff contenders.
We saw the Bills have some issues with the Saints last week, particularly on run defense, where they allowed a combined 135 yards to Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller. In fact, even quarterback Spencer Rattler ran for 49 yards.
That’s bad news against a dual-threat like Maye.
With that in mind, we’ll take the Patriots to keep this one close.
Sunday Night Football Prop Bet
SNF Prop Bet: Drake Maye Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
I mentioned how the Bills allowed 49 yards to Rattler last week. They’ve also given up 49 yards to Justin Fields and 70 yards to Lamar Jackson.
This feels like a game where Maye will have to carry the Patriots offense, which could mean more scrambling plays.
Maye has gone Over this number in two of four games, with a ceiling of 45 yards. This is a spot where he can easily eclipse 30.5 yards on the ground.
Sunday Night Football Parlay
SNF SGP (-105):
- Patriots +14.5 (-239)
- Over 43.5 (-243)
I’m using my Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay as a hedge on my point spread and over/under wagers.
We’ll move the Patriots to a more favorable line of +14.5. This way, we’re covered if they lose by 14 points or fewer. Getting above that key number of 14 is important here. I also like going with Over 43.5 because that means we’d win in a 26-17 type of score line.
Parlay these two plays for -105 odds for Patriots vs Bills.
