A pair of AFC North rivals will collide on Wild Card Weekend when Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (12-5) welcome Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) to M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday, Jan. 11.
These two teams split their regular-season series, with the home team winning each contest. Baltimore took the most recent meeting 34-17 in Week 16 after falling to Pittsburgh 18-16 five weeks earlier.
Which team will emerge victorious in this all-important third matchup? Let’s examine the latest betting odds for this AFC Wild Card showdown before diving into my Steelers vs Ravens prediction and best bets.
Steelers vs Ravens Odds
NFL odds are current as of Monday, Jan. 6, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Steelers (+380) vs Ravens (-500)
- Spread: Steelers +10 (-115) vs Ravens -10 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-110) / Under 43.5 (-110)
Steelers vs Ravens Predictions
Ravens 24, Steelers 13
These teams enter the playoffs with drastically different levels of confidence. The Ravens finished the regular season with four consecutive victories, scoring 30-plus points in each game. Meanwhile, the Steelers dropped their final four games and failed to score more than 17 points in any contest.
Given those circumstances, it’s hard to see any outcome other than a Baltimore victory.
Lamar Jackson made a compelling defense of his title as NFL MVP, throwing for 4,172 yards and accounting for 45 total touchdowns while turning the ball over just eight times. He has struggled against this Steelers’ defense in the past but is coming off one of his better performances against them (207 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT).
Jackson also has a dynamic backfield partner in Derrick Henry, who gets tougher to tackle in the cold weather that comes along with the postseason. In the last meeting, Henry rushed for 162 yards on 24 carries. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s rushing attack was neutralized by Baltimore’s run defense, which allowed a league-low 3.6 yards per attempt during the regular season.
If the Steelers are going to have a chance to pull off the upset, Russell Wilson must roll back the years and hit some deep shots to George Pickens and Calvin Austin III. I don’t think that will happen enough against a Ravens defense that has played its best football over the last month, so I’m backing the hosts to advance to the Divisional Round.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Steelers vs Ravens Best Bets
Under 43.5 Points (-110)
While I like the Ravens to win this game, I can’t lay double-digit points with Baltimore in a postseason divisional matchup. Mike Tomlin’s team didn’t play its best football down the stretch, but it’s not going to go out quietly. Plus, the Pittsburgh defense tends to give Jackson fits.
Instead of attacking the spread, I’ll back the Under at 43.5 points. Baltimore (52.51%) and Pittsburgh (49.31%) rank in the top five league-wide in run play percentage, so the clock should move constantly throughout. I also think both defenses can have success, especially given the familiarity between these teams.
Back the Steelers-Ravens Under as one of your best NFL bets today.
Najee Harris: Under 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
I already mentioned that the Ravens’ defense led the NFL in rush yards allowed per attempt (3.6), so it’s only fitting that I take this Under. Harris has failed to reach this mark in three of his previous four outings, including a 42-yard effort at Baltimore in Week 16, and has ceded some early-down snaps to versatile backup Jaylen Warren.
The Steelers are 10-point underdogs in this matchup, so it’s likely that the Pittsburgh offense will have to play from behind. That doesn’t bode well for Harris getting double-digit attempts, which is likely what he’ll need to hit the Over.
