The NFL schedule features two major matchups between AFC and NFC contenders, and the action is highlighted here in our Week 6 NFL prop picks. We also take aim at some struggling teams and try to take advantage of the doldrums that should continue.
The season did not start well in this space, but the momentum may be shifting. I had some near-misses last week, such as Joe Burrow being projected for 24.5 passing attempts, and finishing with 24. I did hit on a Gabe Davis anytime TD scorer prop, and my record is 7-5 in game props over the past two weeks for a profit of 3.5 units.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL Props Record: 19-44 (-34 Units)
Before reading Scott’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Week 6 player props:
NFL Player Props Week 6
NFL betting odds used for prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and are current as of Friday, Oct. 14.
Mike Evans: Anytime TD Scorer (+100) vs Steelers
WAGER: 2 Units
This could be the easiest slam dunk player prop of the week. Mike Evans has 30 TD receptions in the span of the last two seasons and the first five games of the 2022 season, and the Steelers have allowed an NFL-high nine TD receptions to wide receivers.
You can also consider the more daring play of Evans to catch two TD passes at +550.
Randall Cobb: Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs Jets
WAGER: 1 Unit
Green Bay’s worst fears are being realized at WR this season in the first year of the post-Davante Adams era. Aaron Rodgers lacks any reliable targets, and he must continue to turn to Randall Cobb out of familiarity.
Cobb caught seven passes for 99 yards last week and he has gotten past this projected number in each of his past three games. Now in his 12th NFL season, Cobb lacks upside, but he will still contribute enough out of necessity to make this a quality NFL bet.
Will Dissly: Over 2.5 Receptions (+135) vs Cardinals
WAGER: 1 Unit
Geno Smith looks for Will Dissly in occasional key situations and could target him more than usual this week. Dissly only has 15 targets this season, but Tyler Lockett is dealing with a hamstring problem and the Cardinals present a good matchup for tight ends.
Arizona has allowed the most receptions to tight ends so far this season (36). I also like Dissly at Over 19.5 receiving yards at -110, as the Cardinals have allowed the second-most receiving yards to the position (436).
Jerick McKinnon: Over 34.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110) vs Bills
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Chiefs will either be playing from behind or trying to keep up with the Bills in a potential exchange of offensive punches. Jerick McKinnon has seen a plus-50 percent snap share in two of the past three games, so he should be on the field enough to get past this projected number.
McKinnon is the top complement to Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the Kansas City backfield and he had 72 yards from scrimmage in Week 5.
Jalen Hurts: Anytime TD Scorer (+115) vs Cowboys
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Dallas defense has not allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback yet this season, but the only mobile passer it has faced was Daniel Jones, who could only lead the Giants on one drive that finished with a TD.
Jalen Hurts led all NFL QBs with 10 rushing TDs last season, and he is certainly going to soar past that number this year as a consistent drive-finisher for an improved Eagles offense.
His six TD runs in 2022 are tied for second-most in the league, and even if the Cowboys’ defense does keep Philadelphia in check for a good portion of the game, Hurts is going to deliver a key TD run at some point.
Jimmy Garoppolo: Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+110) vs Falcons
WAGER: 1 Unit
Jimmy Garoppolo has one TD pass in three of four games played this season, but he faced Denver’s top-ranked pass defense and the Rams (13th-ranked) in two of those starts. In a win over Seattle, Garoppolo did lead the 49ers to three TDs and snuck the ball in himself for a score, so more than one passing score could have been possible in that matchup.
Last week, Garoppolo had two TD passes against Carolina, and Atlanta’s 29th-ranked pass defense should surrender more than one scoring pass. If the Falcons can manage to stay in this game, that could boost the potential of seeing more production from the San Francisco passing game.
NFL Prop Bets Week 6
Panthers vs Rams: LA to Win Both Halves (-105)
WAGER: 2 Units
The Rams must win in what appears to be a very easy draw to avoid falling to 2-4 and being terribly embarrassed. Carolina just fired its head coach, which can always spark a team to be more competitive, but Los Angeles should come out strong after being easily dispatched by Dallas.
Pass protection has been a major issue for Matthew Stafford, but he should have more time to throw this week. Carolina has only eight sacks, tied for the third-fewest in the league.
It would not be surprising to see the Panthers perform slightly better with P.J. Walker at QB. But the Rams need a win badly and must take advantage of the favorable matchup, and they should lead comfortably for much of the day.
Buccaneers vs Steelers: PIT 11-20 Total Points (+125)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Steelers did not register a touchdown in last week’s loss to Buffalo, so this may appear to be a bit of a generous wager. In Kenny Pickett’s second game as a starter, though, the offense might display some more respectability, but likely not enough to get over 20 points against the NFL’s sixth-ranked defense.
The Buccaneers have allowed an average of 23.3 points over their last three games, and allowed 15 against Atlanta last week. The Steelers did score 14-plus points in each of their first four games before the AFC’s best defense embarrassed them.
Cardinals vs Seahawks: Both Teams Score 1+ TDs in Each Half (+105)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Even though divisional games can sometimes be a bit lower scoring than we might expect, the Seahawks have the NFL betting profile to support high-scoring matchups. Seattle has the second-worst scoring defense in the league, at 30.8 points per game, and the Seahawks are scoring 25.4 points per game, third-most in the NFC.
Arizona is allowing 24.6 points per game, and Seattle should be able to get over that number. Geno Smith has been the biggest surprise in the league at quarterback, and he should be able to trade offensive punches with Kyler Murray.
The Seahawks are not able to stop anyone on defense right now, especially a dynamic dual-threat QB. But Smith is getting solid pass protection and he has two top-notch WRs that will significantly challenge the league’s 21st-ranked pass defense.
- Check out the latest NFL Week 6 Odds for more on the upcoming slate of games.
Bills vs Chiefs: BUF to Score First/Moneyline (+170)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Bills definitely look like the best team in the NFL and they have the top dual combination of a stellar offense and defense. Buffalo has the ability to strike quickly while holding the other team below their offensive potential.
In the first season of the post-Tyreek Hill era, the Chiefs don’t have as much firepower as the Bills, and Kansas City’s 24th-ranked pass defense is going to be immediately tested. Buffalo will want to make an early statement that the Chiefs simply aren’t on their super-elite level this year.
Cowboys vs Eagles: 2nd Half Is Highest Scoring Half (+105)
WAGER: 1 Unit
This is the NFC’s marquee matchup of the week, and it may be a defensive game in the first half. Dallas is not going to get blown out in a major divisional showdown, and these teams might sputter offensively while feeling each other out early.
Dallas ranks third in the league in points allowed (14.4) and Philadelphia is fourth in total defense, allowing 17.6 points per game. The Eagles should be able to ultimately put the hammer down in the second half because their offense is simply more potent.
Broncos vs Chargers: LA to Score First/Moneyline (+120)
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Denver offense is looking putrid right now, as Russell Wilson is injured and has not adjusted well to his new surroundings. Justin Herbert is also trying to work through a recent rib injury, but he did pass for 340 yards in Week 4 and the Chargers rank fifth in total offense overall.
The Broncos are averaging 15 points per game, which is the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Wilson is dealing with a lat problem and Denver has failed to score more than 11 points in two of its past three games. The Chargers should be able to at least get on the board first with a field goal, while Herbert surely outpoints Wilson over the full game.
