We’re onto Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season, so we’re starting to get a sense of player breakouts, which will help us on the props betting market.
Week 2 featured a much better result (+0.9 units) compared to Week 1 (-5.21 units), so we’ll look to build on that performance in Week 3.
Let’s dive into my top NFL prop bets for Week 3.
Week 3 NFL Prop Bets
NFL Week 3 odds used for prop bets are current as of Thursday, Sept. 21, courtesy of the indicated sportsbook.
Frank Ammirante 2023 NFL Betting Record: 15-26 (-4.31 units)
Titans: Under 17.5 at Browns (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 Units
The Titans came into the season projected to have one of the worst offensive lines, and that has come to fruition as the team is showing major issues in pass protection through the season’s first two weeks.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has already been sacked eight times in two games. That’s bad news against Myles Garrett and the Browns, who have four sacks in two games, holding opposing quarterbacks to only 4.9 yards per attempt, which ranks second in the NFL.
I’m projecting Tennessee to have issues in the passing game due to the pressure Tannehill will face for most of the game, which will make it difficult for them to score points.
The fact that we’re getting the hook is huge because it moves off the key number of 17, making Under 17.5 look like an appealing play.
Lock in the Titans to stay Under this number with your NFL bet of the day.
Week 3 NFL Player Props
Josh Jacobs: Over 71.5 Rushing Yards vs Steelers (-115)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Josh Jacobs has gotten off to a slow start, rushing for only 46 yards on 28 carries in two games, including -2 yards against the Bills last week.
However, there are reasons for optimism as Jacobs is getting bellcow usage, playing 77% of the snaps while handling 69% of the rush attempts.
This is a terrific matchup at home against the Steelers, who have been gashed by Christian McCaffrey, Jerome Ford, and Nick Chubb for a combined 323 rushing yards on 48 carries (6.7 YPC) in the first two games.
The Raiders are 2.5-point home favorites as of Thursday afternoon, so it’s a projected positive game script where Las Vegas may be playing with a lead, which bodes well for Jacobs.
We’re getting a reasonable number at 71.5 rushing yards, which Jacobs eclipsed in nine of 17 games last year.
Look for him to get back on track this week in one of my favorite props on the board.
Find out how high we have Jacobs in our Week 3 fantasy football rankings.
Zach Wilson: Under 183.5 Passing Yards vs Patriots (-114)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
Zach Wilson just threw for only 170 yards against the Cowboys and now he gets a tough Patriots defense.
In two career starts vs New England, Wilson has only 261 passing yards on 6.1 yards per attempt. It’s clear that Bill Belichick knows how to make life difficult for the young Jets’ quarterback.
This is a game with a listed total of 37 points, which is the lowest on the slate. There’s a good chance that we’re going to see a lot of short drives end in punts in this one.
While we’re getting a low bar at 183.5 passing yards, I’m still willing to take it considering how Wilson has looked.
This number is at 179.5 in most other spots, so we’re getting a good deal at FanDuel.
Find Top NFL Props
Check out the best player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool. Click on a game below to see all of its prop bets.
