We have arrived at the most important weekend of the NFL season: conference championship weekend.
As such, it’s imperative that we get down some fun prop bets on paper here!
Before reading Sam’s prop picks, toggle with the widget below to stay on top of the latest NFL Conference Championship player prop odds:
NFL Conference Championship Player Props
Lines used for NFL prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and current as of Thursday, Jan. 25.
Justice Hill: Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Ravens have been a heavy running team for a very long time, but should be just as, if not more, inclined to run the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend. The Chiefs are fresh off of allowing 182 rushing yards to the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional round game, and the Ravens are just as good at running.
Hill has taken a much more central role in the running back room lately, logging some of his highest snap and rushing shares of the year down the stretch. Last week against the Texans, Hill saw 34% of the rushing attempts, compared to Gus Edwards who only saw 26%, per Fantasy Life.
An added bonus for Hill is that he won’t come off the field in obvious passing situations, making this an easy NFL pick of the day.
Mecole Hardman: Under 9.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
WAGER: 1.5 Units
I’ve been taking under on Hardman all postseason, and I’m not stopping now. Hardman has now had back-to-back games of horrific mistakes made, as he had a bad drop and a surefire touchdown messed up in the Miami game, and then followed it up with a brutal fumble for a touchback in the Buffalo game.
Most players don’t get second chances — Hardman has had what feels like six chances at this point. Baltimore has one of the toughest secondaries in the NFL, and I cannot envision Andy Reid wants to put the ball in Hardman’s hands in an important spot again.
The Chiefs won’t trust Hardman; take all of the unders you can find at this point.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Longest Reception Over 23.5 (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a purely gamescript-based play for me, as I believe that the Lions will be fighting for their lives in this one to keep up with a San Francisco offense that is very powerful and should be able to feast on a weaker Lions’ defense.
St. Brown has been able to hit this play in 11 of 18 games this season, and gets another solid matchup against a 49ers’ unit that allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to slot receivers this year. You can’t exactly draw a straight line to correlation there, but I feel much more confident drawing either Isaiah Oliver or Ambry Thomas over Charvarius Ward.
In outdoor games this season, St. Brown is unfortunately 1-4 to the over here, but I feel confident that a full complement of weapons helps St. Brown’s prospects to get to this number.
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NFL Conference Championship Prop Bets
Ravens/Chiefs: Game Total Under 44.5 (-110)
This game, despite being between two of the best quarterbacks the NFL has right now, could easily go under this total.
This screams 21-17 finish, given the spread we currently have and the weather in the forecast, which is gloomy and rainy. Both teams can be extremely run-heavy at times, given that the Chiefs have embraced running Isiah Pacheco all over the place.
On the other side of things, the Ravens will always be a run-first team and the Chiefs’ secondary has been extremely solid this season, as has the Ravens’.