In the NFL playoffs, I have been more successful with game picks so far among my NFL prop bets. Last week, I recommended the Bengals on an alternate spread at -3.
For my NFL conference championship prop bets, I am sticking with Cincinnati, a team that knows how to win on the road in the postseason. The Bengals have won their last three away playoff games.
Scott Engel 2022 NFL prop betting: 87-160-1 (-79.5 units)
Before reading Scott’s prop picks, toggle with the widget below to stay on top of the latest NFL Conference Championship player prop odds:
NFL Conference Championship Player Props
Lines used for NFL prop bets are from Caesars Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and current as of Wednesday, Jan. 25.
Ja’Marr Chase: Anytime TD Scorer (-109) at Chiefs — Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
The Chiefs allowed a TD reception to Christian Kirk in the divisional round, and they were even more generous to wide receivers during the regular season. Kansas City allowed 20 TD passes to WRs, the most in the AFC.
The Over/Under on points for the Bengals is 22, which indicates we should expect two to three TDs, and Chase is a top candidate to visit the end zone for the Bengals in every game. He had nine receiving TDs during the regular season and another in the divisional round.
Chase has caught a TD pass in four of his last five games played, making this an easy NFL pick of the day.
Travis Kelce: Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-119) vs Bengals — Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Cincinnati was able to frustrate and limit the opposition’s top pass-catcher, Stefon Diggs, last week. But Kelce is the most unstoppable tight end in the NFL, and Dawson Knox had 65 receiving yards vs the Bengals last week.
During the regular season, Cincinnati ranked 25th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. Kelce has totaled 95-plus yards in three of his past five games and he had 95 yards vs Cincinnati in the playoffs last season. (Read more in our Chiefs vs Bengals prediction.)
DeVonta Smith: Over 5.5 Receptions (+116) vs 49ers — Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The 49ers have a highly stout defense overall, but they can be beaten in the secondary. San Francisco’s pass defense ranked 19th during the regular season and 24th in total receptions allowed to WRs.
Smith has caught six-plus passes in each of his past four games. He is thriving lately as opponents try to focus heavily on containing A.J. Brown. (Read more about the NFC Championship in our Eagles vs 49ers prediction.)
Brock Purdy: Under 219.5 Passing Yards (-133) at Eagles — Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Wagering against Purdy in the playoffs has burned me in the first two rounds. I certainly salute him for overcoming the expectations of those like me who have waited for an inevitable “rookie” type of performance.
This particular wager, though, is certainly worth the attempt, as Purdy passed for 214 yards against Dallas and he now faces the league’s top-ranked pass defense. I am not suggesting that Purdy will have a terrible outing, but still signifying the matchup is his toughest yet.
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NFL Conference Championship Prop Bets
49ers vs Eagles: SF Under 2.5 TDs (-115) — Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
I don’t foresee the 49ers getting into the end zone more than twice against the Eagles after the Cowboys limited them to one TD in the divisional round. Philadelphia’s defensive front can concentrate on limiting Christian McCaffrey while the pass defense should certainly hold its own against Purdy’s playmakers.
In the last five games where Jalen Hurts has been healthy, the Eagles have allowed 15 points per game. Philadelphia allowed 17.6 points per game at home during the regular season, which ranked fourth in the NFL. (Click for the latest on NFC Championship Odds.)
49ers vs Eagles: PHI -4 Alternate Spread (+114) — Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
While I do not think this game will be a blowout, this will be the best defense and most dynamic QB the 49ers have faced in the last seven games. That covers the span where Purdy has taken over as the starter and the team has seemed to be invincible.
Philadelphia’s average scoring margin of 10.4 at home was second-best in the NFL during the regular season. The Eagles have won by five-plus points in all of their last five and eight of their last nine victories.
Bengals vs Chiefs: CIN Over 23.5 Total Points (-120) — Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
This will surely be the higher-scoring affair between the two championship games, and I did strongly consider teasing the total to over 25 points at +104. Sticking at 23.5, though, is the slightly safer play for more units.
The Bengals have scored 23-plus points in six of their last seven games, but they failed to score 24 points three times during that span.
In Week 13, Cincinnati did score points in a home win over Kansas City. The Bengals averaged 24.4 points per game on the road during the regular season. (Stay up-to-date on AFC Championship Odds.)
Bengals vs Chiefs: CIN Offensive TD On 1st Drive (+305) — Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
Cincinnati jumped on Buffalo quickly last week in a statement to show they were undaunted by playing on the road against another top contender. I believe the Bengals will do the same this week at Kansas City, where they won in last season’s playoffs.
During the regular season, Cincinnati was the highest-scoring first-quarter team in the AFC.
