I had my best result of the year in Week 15, winning 10.83 units. I’ll look to build off that impressive performance with more profit this week.
Read on for my best, longshot, and same-game parlays for Week 15. Check out my X account, @FAmmiranteTFJ, to see my full betting card.
Let’s keep it rolling with my NFL Week 16 parlays.
Best NFL Week 16 Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2023 Betting Record: 255-317 (+14.3 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Friday, Dec. 22, at noon ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Week 16 Top Parlay (+261)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Chargers +12.5 (-110) vs Bills
- Vikings +3 (-112) vs Lions
The Week 16 top parlay starts with the Chargers +11.5 as home underdogs vs the red-hot Bills.
I get it. Easton Stick is starting, Keenan Allen is out again, and Austin Ekeler hasn’t looked good all year.
But this is the NFL and we’ve seen closer results than expected — like the Titans going on the road and winning outright against the Dolphins.
I’m not saying that Los Angeles will win this one, but I do think they’ll cover the spread.
The main reason why I’m riding the Chargers is because this is their first game without head coach Brandon Staley.
We’ve seen teams respond positively in their first game following a midseason firing — just look at the Raiders with Antonio Pierce (won outright) and Panthers with Chris Tabor (covered vs the Bucs).
I’m betting on a similar result here, with the Chargers keeping it within 7-10 points.
I’ll finish it off with the Vikings +3 at home vs the Lions.
This game features a playoff contender as a home underdog against a division rival, and we’re getting them plus a field goal.
Minnesota should have won last week vs the Bengals, but poor play-calling (consecutive “tush pushes" with Nick Mullens) cost them the game.
But Mullens did a decent job moving the ball and could find some success against a struggling Lions pass defense.
Look for Mullens to connect with Justin Jefferson early and often, helping to keep this game within a field goal.
Target these two plays for our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Week 16 Parlay
Week 16 Longshot Parlay (+428)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.4 Units
- Steelers ML (+140) vs Bengals
- Colts ML (+120) at Falcons
The longshot parlay opens up with the Steelers to complete the sweep of the division-rival Bengals.
Pittsburgh is reeling after losing three straight games to the Cardinals, Patriots, and Colts, causing head coach Mike Tomlin to turn to Mason Rudolph over Mitch Trubisky.
This will be Rudolph’s first start since Nov. 14, 2021, so we can expect the Steelers to lean on their running game.
The good news is that the Bengals have struggled with defending the run, most recently getting gashed by Ty Chandler. We could see a big game from Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Furthermore, Cincinnati will be playing without Ja’Marr Chase here. While Tee Higgins is a stud wideout in his own right, that’s a major loss for Jake Browning and company.
In a divisional game, look for Pittsburgh to get back on track with an upset victory.
- See the full list of NFL Week 16 odds.
I’ll finish off this parlay by taking the Colts to win their fifth game in their last six.
Indianapolis is a well-coached team led by Shane Steichen, who has them playing well despite injuries to key players like Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor, and now Michael Pittman Jr., whose status is up in the air for this one.
On the other side, coach Arthur Smith continues to avoid using his best players, which has been detrimental to the team.
Reports indicate that there are rumblings around the organization that Smith could be on the way out soon.
Would it be shocking for the Falcons to quit on their coach just like the Chargers did with Staley?
I can absolutely see this happening. Give me the Colts due to their significant coaching advantage.
NFL Week 16 Same-Game Parlay
Cowboys vs Dolphins Same-Game Parlay (+232)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Cowboys ML (-102)
- CeeDee Lamb: Under 90.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Week 16 Same-Game Parlay features an inter-conference matchup between two explosive offenses.
While I love what Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins are doing, I’m concerned that whenever they’ve faced a contender, they’ve had a disappointing result.
Miami has lost to the Eagles, Chiefs, and Bills this season. None of their 10 wins have come against teams with above .500 records.
In fact, the Dolphins’ most impressive win (by opposing record) this year is against the Broncos (7-7).
Until the Dolphins prove to me that they can beat a contender, I’ll fade them in such spots, so give me the Cowboys on the moneyline.
I’ll finish this off by targeting CeeDee Lamb to go Under 90.5 receiving yards.
This is a high bar against Jalen Ramsey and company. Since Ramsey has returned to the lineup, the Dolphins’ pass defense has improved.
According to John Daigle of 4for4, since Ramsey came back in Week 8, Miami ranks 1st in Dropback EPA, which is a metric that relates to pass defense.
While Lamb is an elite receiver, I’ll bet on the Under 90.5 receiving yards due to the tough matchup.
