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Packers vs Steelers Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Nov 9, 2023

The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in the thick of the NFL playoff picture, one of three teams sitting at 5-3 in the AFC North.

Looking to build on that success, the Steelers host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday (1 p.m. ET). The Packers are 3-5 following a 20-3 victory over the banged-up Rams in Week 9.

Who has the edge? Read on as we break down the NFL betting odds and deliver our best bets.

Packers vs Steelers Odds

NFL odds used for this Green Bay vs Pittsburgh preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, Nov. 9, at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Steelers (-166) • Packers (+140)
  • Spread: Steelers -3 (-115) • Packers +3 (-105)
  • Total Points: Over 39 (-108) • Under 39 (-112)
  • Implied Score: Steelers 21, Packers 18

Packers vs Steelers Predictions

Score Pick: Steelers 20, Packers 16

The Steelers remain something of an enigma. Despite a negative point differential, they’re on the right side of .500 at 5-3. Only one other team in the NFL can say that: 5-3 Seattle.

Showcasing their knack for close wins, the Steelers edged Tennessee 20-16 on Thursday Night Football in Week 9. Now, they get a few extra days of rest at home.

While the Steelers have obvious flaws – for one, they’re allowing the second-most yards per game – they’re shaping up well in this spot. Green Bay has lost three of four games away from Lambeau Field and now faces one of the league’s best ballhawking defenses.

That’s problematic for Jordan Love, who in replacing Aaron Rodgers has been erratic, at best.

Look for Pittsburgh to take care of business at home.

Packers vs Steelers Best Bets & Props

Steelers -3 (-115)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Pittsburgh has been profitable this season, with a 5-3 record ATS. Three of those wins have been at home.

While the Steelers have clearly outperformed expectations, it’s best to reserve judgment on their long-term prospects for at least another week.

It’s hard to put any trust in Love, especially in a tough road environment. The former first-rounder is averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt, ranking 24th in the NFL behind the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo, Desmond Ridder, and Baker Mayfield. He’s also been sacked eight times the last two weeks.

I’m confident enough in Pittsburgh to make this my NFL bet of the day.

Under 39 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

While the Steelers remain susceptible to big plays, they’ve done well to limit the damage. Despite allowing the second most yards per game (377.3), they’re holding opponents to an average of 20.4 points.

Green Bay certainly doesn’t profile as a team that can capitalize on Pittsburgh’s flaws, with Love continuing to take his lumps.

Both these offenses rank in the bottom 10 in scoring. This is shaping up to be a rock fight.

Jordan Love: Over 0.5 INTs (-180)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Love has been picked off in five of the last six games. His eight interceptions are tied for the second-most in the NFL.

Few teams are better at forcing opposing quarterbacks into mistakes than the Steelers.

Don’t overthink it. The Steelers are a good bet to force Love into at least one big miscue.

Packers vs Steelers Same Game Parlay

Packers vs Steelers SGP (+284)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

  • Steelers -3 (-115)
  • Packers Under 20.5 (-185)
  • Under 19.5 1H (-115)

Pittsburgh has shown a propensity for winning close games. Its 62.5% cover rate is tied for the fourth highest in the NFL.

Green Bay – which has scored 20 points or fewer in six straight games – isn’t shaping up to be much of a threat for Pittsburgh’s tough defense.

Neither team has much offensive firepower. Don’t expect that to change anytime soon.

Author

Doug Bonjour

Doug covered college and prep sports in Connecticut for more than a decade, including stints as the UConn women’s basketball and UConn football beat reporter for Hearst Connecticut Media. During his time reporting on the 11-time national champion Huskies, he covered three NCAA Final Fours. He also has written for the Associated Press and New York Times.

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