Falcons vs Panthers Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Dec 15, 2023

Week 15 is crunch time for many NFL teams, and we have an NFC South divisional matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers that could change the conference’s wild-card race.

The NFL Week 15 betting odds for this matchup reflect the serious nature of this game for the Falcons. Atlanta must win to keep its slim playoff hopes alive, and ESPN Bet has made Atlanta a -3 favorite.

Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers are riding the struggle bus, have been eliminated from the playoffs, and will hope to end a six-game losing skid.

Here are the best bets for Falcons vs Panthers on Sunday, December 17.

Falcons vs Panthers Odds

NFL odds used for this Atlanta vs Carolina preview were found at ESPN Sportsbook and are current as of December 14 at 7:39 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Falcons (-165) • Panthers (+140)
  • Spread: Falcons -3 (-110) • Panthers +3 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 34.5 (-105) • Under 34.5 (-115)
  • Implied Score: Falcons 20.25, Panthers 14.25

Falcons vs Panthers Predictions

Score Pick: Falcons 17, Panthers 10

This matchup is difficult to predict. Both offenses are underwhelming because of the inconsistent play of their respective quarterbacks, and neither offense has any flow at all.

It’s tough to figure out what they will do from one play to the next, let alone predict what they will do over the course of the game.

That being said, Atlanta has played in seven one-possession games over its last 10 matchups. The Falcons were 3-4-0 in those games, but at least we know they can compete because of their defense.

Atlanta allows 20.7 points per game, and it would be much better if the offense didn’t commit so many inopportune turnovers.

Carolina is struggling to score points. Bryce Young, the No. 1 2023 NFL Draft pick, has been inconsistent, with as many TDs as interceptions (9).

The Panthers allow the fourth-fewest total yards per game but the second-most points because Young gets frustrated and throws a pick. That’s why Carolina has a 1-12-0 record and is 2-9-2 ATS.

This game could go either way, but Atlanta competes, and it still has a puncher’s chance of making the playoffs. Its offense is improving, and rookie running back Bijan Robinson is the best player either team has. Look for the Falcons to win in a tightly-contested matchup.

Falcons vs Panthers Best Bets & Props

Falcons -3 (-110)

ESPN Bet Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Falcons -3 is my NFL bet of the day. Atlanta has played several one-possession games, and while it has been on the wrong side of the W/L ledger, so has Carolina. The difference? Atlanta has a chance to cover because Carolina doesn’t cover the spread at all.

Both quarterbacks have been turnover machines this season, but Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder and the offense can sometimes find the end zone.

Carolina has scored 57 points over its last five and is 2-9-2 ATS, so I’ll roll with Falcons -3 (-110) at ESPN Bet.

Under 34.5 (-115)

ESPN Bet Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

This is a percentage play, as Atlanta is 5-8-0 to the Under this season, while Carolina is 4-9-0 to the Under.

Both teams have struggling quarterbacks who try to do too much and make mistakes. We know the defenses are good, but the respective quarterbacks throwing as many TDs as miscues could cause short-field situations, leading to points.

The Under is also 1-3-0 in each team’s NFC South matchups.

Carolina Under 12.5 (+170)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

ESPN Bet didn’t offer any alternative point totals, but DraftKings has the exact Under market I want, and +170 for a team failing to score 13 points in three of their past four games seems like a gift.

Young is 29th in QBR rating, he’s thrown four picks at home, and he has to deal with a Falcons defense allowing 203 passing yards per game.

Under 12.5 is a bit of a dart throw, but +170 makes it worth the risk on a team scoring 57 points over their last five games.

Falcons vs Panthers Same-Game Parlay

Falcons vs Panthers SGP (+440)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Falcons -3 (-112)
  • Under 34 (-110)
  • Panthers Under +12.5 (+170)
  • Falcons Under 21.5 (-198)

The reason is simple math: this SGP card has +440 odds to win, but playing a garden-variety, standard, four-leg parlay with these same odds would pay $146.84 for a $10 stake.

These reduced odds are the only reason the bookmakers would allow a correlating parlay like this and why some states enjoy a whopping 21% hold rate on parlays.

That being said, this card does fit together nicely. We’ve already explained three of the legs, but I don’t expect Atlanta to score more than 21 points.

Paying nearly 2-1 odds on that leg is steep. If Young can avoid making a costly mistake on his side of the field, a solid Panthers’ defense can slow down the Ridder-led Falcons’ offense.

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