The New York Jets have struggled after a quarterback change. A matchup against a weak secondary might help, but nothing suggests Tim Boyle can take advantage.
The Atlanta Falcons’ defense played well last week against New Orleans following the bye, but can it deliver a big win to get this team to .500 in the ugly NFC South?
Here are our NFL Week 13 best bets for Atlanta vs New York.
Falcons vs Jets Odds
NFL odds used for this Atlanta vs New York preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 28, at 4 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Falcons (-155) • Jets (+130)
- Spread: Falcons -2.5 (-118) • Jets +2.5 (-102)
- Total Points: Over 37 (-110) • Under 37 (-110)
- Implied Score: Falcons 19.75, Jets 17.25
Falcons vs Jets Predictions
Score Pick: Falcons 13, Jets 10
The prevailing narrative is that Zach Wilson is a bad quarterback and just about anyone gives the Jets a better chance to win. But that’s simply not the case.
Mike White had one win in relief of Wilson last year, but the Jets still struggled after that despite the offense gaining a ton of yards through the air.
Now, Boyle is under center – a quarterback who has many more interceptions than touchdowns in his brief NFL career and who had a horrid touchdown-to-interception ratio back in college.
He has graded out significantly worse than Wilson (-0.203) in adjusted EPA per play in his action this year, coming in at -0.315 behind Tommy DeVito and just slightly ahead of Brett Rypien.
He’s simply not a good quarterback, and he does not give the Jets a better chance to win. We will expand on this matchup below, but as someone who has closely followed the Jets for years, I can tell you this team has given up on the season with this move.
Atlanta has its own issues, but it’s done an excellent job against the run and should win an ugly battle on Sunday.
Falcons vs Jets Best Bets & Props
Falcons -2.5 (-118)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Jets may rank 30th in rush-play percentage this season, but it’s clearly the team’s strength considering it is inside the top five in yards per carry this season and is trotting out a quarterback who does not deserve to play in the NFL.
Boyle aired it out 38 times last week, but he lacked significantly in average depth of target and managed a measly 4.7 yards per attempt. Atlanta’s front seven is a strong group, and while this secondary has been burned and the line has had its issues getting to the passer, it should be well-equipped to stop short passes and run plays, which should be coming at them all afternoon.
The Jets have been excellent on the defensive end and should really hold this game to a low-scoring total against an inexperienced Desmond Ridder, but it would be irresponsible to play them at this number given their inability to move the ball and the added risk of Boyle dropping back to pass, given his turnover issues.
I expect Atlanta, almost in Bears-like fashion, to come close to winning this one without even scoring a touchdown. Against a horrific Jets offense, the Falcons are our NFL bet of the day.
Under 34 (-110)
FanDuel • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Falcons should really have no reason not to run the ball all game long. They are third in rush-play rate at 48.55% this season, and while the Jets have ranked eighth in success rate against the run, they’re still allowing 4.2 yards per rush and are constantly at risk of giving up a big home run on the ground.
So, the pace of this game will be relatively slow. On the other side of the ball, the Jets should have great difficulty moving the ball with these excellent Falcons run stuffers going up against a severely depleted Jets offensive line that is missing center Connor McGovern and star lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker.
The unit found something last week with Carter Warren, and rookie Joe Tippmann has been good, but there is still far too much for this offense to overcome. It goes well beyond the quarterback position.
With that, I am not fearful of the Jets’ offense costing us this Under and would play it all the way down to 32 points.
Falcons vs Jets Same-Game Parlay
Falcons vs Jets SGP (+525)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Falcons -2.5 (-118)
- Under 34 (-112)
- Over 3.5 FGs Made (-130)
With player props unavailable for most of the week, we will have to get a little creative here. The Falcons should win convincingly against a meek offensive attack in what’s sure to be a low-scoring affair.
An interesting little nugget is that the Falcons have allowed a whopping 96.3% field-goal-conversion rate this year, ranked 29th in the NFL, and that’s largely been because of the fact that the team has bent on the defensive end but has not broken. The Falcons rank third in red-zone defense this season, and the Jets, on the other end of the stick, rank sixth.
This game will feature two of the best kickers in football in Younghoe Koo and Greg Zuerlein along with two of the best red-zone defenses in the league. With that, we can expect most of the scoring to come from those two, and at least four field goals are all but assured.
