Six teams are on bye Week 13, which stinks since it limits betting options. Although based on my near-.500 pick percentage, it may not matter.
It’s another lackluster week of matchups. Aside from a couple of Sunday games, the majority of this slate is forgettable. I still believe there are a few lines worth exploiting.
Jeff Hicks’s 2023 NFL Best Bets Record: 30-33 (-7.07 Units)
*All odds and lines are current as of 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 28.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet
Falcons vs Jets Under 34 Points (-109)
BetRivers Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Credit to the Falcons for letting Bijan Robinson cook. It’s almost like he was the best running back coming out of college last season.
Atlanta will more than likely be operating the Arthur Smith special Week 13 - run the ball, and then when it’s time to pass, run some more.
The Jets are susceptible to opposing RBs, allowing 148 total yards to the position per game. A strong rushing performance keeps the opposing “offense" off the field and runs clock.
The Jets offense is in dire straits with Tim Boyle under center. The Falcons defense has been one of the better units against the pass, and Breece Hall has been forced to face stacked boxes with poor play from Boyle and Zach Wilson. Falcons-Jets would benefit from a running game clock.
NFL Week 13 ATS Best Bets
Lions -4 vs Saints (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a wager on injuries, as the Saints could be without Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Michael Thomas (already on I.R.). As poor as the Lions secondary has played, they can slow down tight ends.
The Saints are one of the worst defenses at defending tight ends, which is great news for Sam LaPorta, a favorite of Jared Goff. Losing CB Marshon Lattimore to I.R. is also bad news.
I expected both defenses to play better than what they have shown recently, but the lack of offensive firepower for New Orleans is ultimately going to doom it.
Keep up with all of our NFL lines for Week 13 and beyond:
NFL Week 13 Over/Under Best Bets
Dolphins vs Commanders Over 49.5 Points (-110)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
FanDuel and BetRivers are the only sportsbooks hanging 49.5. Every other shop is at 50 or 50.5, which means this line could get high enough to hedge.
We have seen the Dolphins offense slow down of late, but one thing that has not slowed down is offensive production against the Commanders. Over the past month, Washington has allowed 17, 29, 31, and 45 points.
The Dolphins defense has allowed no more than 21 points over that same span, but if they allow 17 and have their offensive teammates score 35, it’s all good. This is in play with both secondaries playing especially poor against WRs, and both squads have dudes at that position.
Lions vs Saints Under 46 Points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I’m going back to this game since the Lions don’t need to score 30 points to lock in a win. New Orleans lacks creativity on offense, and the aforementioned injuries limit what little imagination is shown.
Goff has been a bit of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde recently. He’s had two clean sheets with no interceptions in two of his past five games but has five picks and five fumbles (three lost) overall in that span. The Saints are averaging 1.27 interceptions per game on defense.
Another game with a commitment to the run is likely on Detroit’s end.
NFL Week 13 Moneyline Best Bets
Broncos (+167) vs Texans
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Broncos are 4-1 after a win, while the Texans are 3-1 after a loss. Something has to give.
I lean the Broncos due to them running an offense with a veteran QB who is playing well, better offensive weapons than their opponent, and a clear defensive edge. The same defense that gave up 70 to the Dolphins is allowing 18 points per game over their past three contests.
I love watching C.J. Stroud, and I believe in what Houston is building. What I don’t believe is that it is ready to consistently win and are a few pieces away from being a target for betting, especially at home.
It is also odd to think how much better the Texans offense is with Noah Brown healthy.
Houston should not be (-190) or better to win this game. That’s a bet on recency bias in favor of Stroud.
