The Miami Dolphins are in trouble. Their top two quarterbacks are in concussion protocol, leaving third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson to lead the ship. The Dolphins lost 40-17 to the Jets under Thompson’s leadership.
Meanwhile, the Vikings are 4-1 this season and atop the NFC North. Minnesota is playing good football under new head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Can the Dolphins bounce back at home even with quarterback trouble? Or will Minnesota roll over Miami this week?
Read on for our Minnesota vs Miami prediction, betting tips, and best bets for this Sunday’s matchup.
Vikings vs Dolphins Odds
This line has been volatile but only because of Miami’s quarterback issues. The line will likely settle around a field goal, but nobody knows where to set or bet the line without a clear-cut starting quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Over has taken the public money but the line has moved a point toward the Under. That could be characterized as reverse line movement and is worth watching.
Vikings vs Dolphins Implied Totals
Vikings 24.25, Dolphins 21.25
Vegas believes the Vikings will win by a field goal on the road in Miami this week in a normal-scoring NFL game.
Vikings vs Dolphins Pick of the Day
Read more on this Vikings vs Dolphins bet below.
Vikings vs Dolphins Prediction
Vikings 31, Dolphins 21
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has not ruled out starting Tua Tagovailoa or backup Teddy Bridgewater Sunday, but we are doubtful either will start.
That begs the question: who is Skylar Thompson?
Thompson is a seventh-round rookie quarterback out of Kansas State, where he started 45 career games with a 62.4% completion and a 42:16 TD-to-INT ratio. He has a lot of talent but is still very raw.
Thompson’s first NFL action showed just that.
He managed to complete just 19-of-33 attempts and tossed an interception. The Dolphins have lost two straight games after Tagovailoa’s initial injury scare.
This line will move significantly if Tagovailoa starts, and the Dolphins likely win if that’s the case. Miami will be worth betting on if Bridgewater starts because he is one of the best starting quarterbacks ATS in NFL history (42-22).
But I expect Thompson to start, and the Dolphins are worth fading in that scenario.
Minnesota is moving the ball well on offense. That’s thanks in part to Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson being one of the elite combinations in the NFL, while the Dolphins have shown how weak they are against the pass. Miami is dead last in Football Outsiders’ Pass Defense DVOA and has allowed the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL.
Miami has an electric offense, but I doubt the Dolphins keep up in a shootout relying on a third-string, seventh-round rookie quarterback from KSU.
Vikings vs Dolphins Bet Tips
Here are some Vikings vs Dolphins betting trends to consider before placing your bets:
- Miami is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six October games.
- Miami is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.
- The Over is 10-3 in Minnesota’s last 13 games.
- The Over is 11-4 in Miami’s last 15 games following an ATS loss.
Vikings vs Dolphins Best Bets
Vikings -3 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Vikings are playing good football and have caught the Dolphins in a very precarious position. Despite playing in Miami, the Vikings have the edge because we can’t trust Thompson to create enough explosive plays to keep his team in the game.
Minnesota is poor defensively, but the Vikings will likely keep the Dolphins’ offense at bay enough to win and cover.
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Over 45.5 (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Neither defense is good. The Dolphins are dead last in Defensive DVOA, but the Vikings rank 26th.
Moreover, the Vikings are 23rd in Rush Defense DVOA, allowing 4.4 YPC on the season. This means that while Dolphins might struggle through the air, they will likely create some explosive running plays.
The Dolphins will manage some scoring drives in this game while allowing a ton to Minnesota. The Vikings are 3-0 to the Over in their last three games and expect them to go Over one more time.
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