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Cowboys vs Dolphins Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Dec 20, 2023

The Dallas Cowboys will spend Christmas Eve in South Florida taking on Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins.

Dallas enters the matchup after suffering a humbling loss to another AFC East opponent, the Buffalo Bills.

Miami, on the other hand, pitched a shutout at home against division rivals the New York Jets.

Let’s take a look at the NFL Week 16 odds and see what the sportsbooks think about the Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins.

Cowboys vs Dolphins Odds

NFL odds used for this Dallas vs Miami preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Dec. 19 at 7 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Dolphins (-122) • Cowboys (+100)
  • Spread: Dolphins -1.5 (-108) • Cowboys +1.5 (-112)
  • Total Points: Over 51 (-112) • Under 51 (-108)
  • Implied Score: Dolphins 26.25, Cowboys 24.75

Cowboys vs Dolphins Predictions

Score Pick: Dolphins 31, Cowboys 27

The Cowboys’ offense simply could not find any rhythm against the Bills, scoring just 10 points for the second time this season.

Meanwhile, despite missing a number of key players on both sides of the ball, the Dolphins managed to hold the Jets to just 103 yards of total offense in a dominant 30-0 victory.

These 10-4 powerhouses each sit atop their respective divisions and will be looking to pick up a key win with the playoffs looming in the new year.

Most books have this game as a Pick’Em and with good reason. This pair have become notorious for their mediocrity against some of the stronger teams across the league. How they will fare against one another will be fascinating to see.

However, Miami will have just enough to outlast the Cowboys. Apart from a stellar home record, the Dolphins’ offense has gone to another level at Hard Rock Stadium compared to on the road.

As part of a nearly perfect 6-1 record, Miami’s offense is scoring 35.9 points at home compared to 27.1 on the road. It’s not only the offense getting a boost from the South Florida crowd, with the defense allowing 9.2 points per game less in front of Fin Nation.

The home/road splits will likely play a big role in how this game plays out. While the Cowboys have been even more dominant at AT&T Stadium than Miami has at Hard Rock, their 21.7 points per game on the road is concerning.

We saw a perfect example of this last week when the Cowboys finished with under 200 yards of total offense on the road against the Bills.

Dallas’ offense was not the only underperforming unit for head coach Mike McCarthy during last week’s defeat.

James Cook, the NFL’s second-highest rusher this season, torched the Cowboys’ defense with over 200 yards of total offense. This week, they will have to face Raheem Mostert, the league’s third-leading rusher and rushing touchdown leader among running backs.

Apart from the ground threat of Mostert, Tagovailoa could be getting back his favorite target and MVP candidate Tyreek Hill, who missed last week with an ankle injury.

Hill was one of several Miami stars who was forced to sit out against the Jets. The Cheetah, safety Jevon Holland, and former All-Pro corner Xavien Howard are all listed as questionable for Sunday’s game, but each should have a better chance of suiting up in Week 16.

Should the Dolphins continue to get healthy as the week progresses, the line should move further in favor of the Fins before Sunday afternoon.

Cowboys vs Dolphins Best Bets & Props

Dolphins -1.5 (-108)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 units

Catching the Dolphins at just 1.5-point favorites this early in the week presents an opportunity that could work in your favor depending on how the line changes closer to the weekend.

We have already discussed how Miami could be getting reinforcements in the form of several notable players, which will surely have an effect on the spread.

The Dolphins’ defensive performance last week, albeit against a poor Jets’ offense, also gives confidence when analyzing this game, and that makes this my NFL bet of the day.

Miami’s ability to take away one of New York’s main weapons in Breece Hall was impressive when looking at the versatile way the Jets utilize him.

The Fins’ defense will need to do much of the same against Tony Pollard, but it has the personnel to do so, and in the process, it can push Dallas into an unbalanced attack that could eventually be the Cowboys’ undoing.

Over 51 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

When the two highest-scoring offenses face off, betting the Over seems like the most logical thing to do.

It’s not hard to imagine this one turning into a shootout, and these teams should surpass 51 total points fairly easily.

The Dolphins and Cowboys sit No. 1 and No 2. in points scored this season, respectively, with a combined 872 between the two.

Despite McCarthy’s play-calling inconsistencies on the road, Dallas will be forced to play aggressively should Miami jump out to an early lead.

Getting the ball to playmakers like Pollard and CeeDee Lamb will lead to good things even if the Dolphins’ defense is able to keep them in check in spurts.

Dolphins Over 30.5 (+195)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Miami nearly surpassed this number last week without its most dangerous offensive weapon on the field against a stout New York defense.

The Cowboys’ defense has had its moments this year, but it has looked more vulnerable over the past few weeks.

I am rolling with Mike McDaniel’s offense to score over 30 points as it has done seven times this season.

Should Hill be listed as active, this alternate point total could lose the plus-money odds it has now.

Cowboys vs Dolphins Same-Game Parlay

Cowboys vs Dolphins SGP (+600)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Dolphins (-120)
  • Over 51 (-112)
  • Dolphins Over 30.5 (+195)
  • Cowboys Over 25.5 (-108)

One can enjoy some pretty stacked odds when parlaying our best bets together and adding a Cowboys point total leg to the mix.

This Cowboys vs Dolphins same-game parlay will bank on a shootout from the league’s top two offenses this season.

Breaking down this SGP, I decided to go with the Dolphins moneyline rather than the 1.5-point spread, as catching the Fins at -120 is still great value when parlaying with other legs.

I have also decided to go with the Cowboys Over 25.5, but you can still find solid value in selecting an alternate point total such as 22.5 at -185.

These teams should have no trouble surpassing these totals and cashing this parlay.

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